Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States†

Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States† AbstractWe examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Review American Economic Association

Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States†

Preview Only
53 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/aea/policy-uncertainty-trade-and-welfare-theory-and-evidence-for-china-and-1wBH0Jypk9
Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 © American Economic Association
ISSN
0002-8282
D.O.I.
10.1257/aer.20141419
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractWe examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33)

Journal

American Economic ReviewAmerican Economic Association

Published: Sep 1, 2017

There are no references for this article.

Sorry, we don’t have permission to share this article on DeepDyve,
but here are related articles that you can start reading right now:

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve Freelancer

DeepDyve Pro

Price
FREE
$49/month

$360/year
Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed
Create lists to
organize your research
Export lists, citations
Read DeepDyve articles
Abstract access only
Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles
Print
20 pages/month
PDF Discount
20% off