TY - JOUR
AU1 - Gensini, Vittorio A.
AU2 - Barrett, Bradford S.
AU3 - Allen, John T.
AU4 - Gold, David
AU5 - Sirvatka, Paul
AB - Forecasting Tornado Activity Weeks in Advance Adapted from “The Extended-Range Tornado Activity Forecast (ERTAF) Project,” by Vittorio A. Gensini (Northern Illinois University), Bradford S. Barrett, John T. Allen, David Gold, and Paul Sirvatka. Published online in BAMS, June 2020. For the full, citable article, see DOI:10.1175 /BAMS-D-19-0188.1. kill in forecasting severe convective storms (SCSs) and associated tornado and hail frequency is increasing at various subseasonal lead times, from S two weeks to two months. Interest from stakeholders is rapidly growing for these forecasts. Subseasonal forecast skill is likely a testament to improved global numerical weather prediction and better understanding of the variance in subseasonal SCS frequency—for example, the clustering of periods of high tornado frequency over two or more days. In addition, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the global wind oscillation (GWO) can lead to synoptic patterns supportive of tornadoes east of A spatial map of GEFS the U.S. Rocky Mountains, such as a midtropospheric trough in the western United weekly supercell composite States and consequent polar flux in surface moisture across the Great Plains. accumulation. This product (and Operational 4–8-day SPC outlooks for SCSs now have measurable skill. its derivatives) helped the ERTAF Extended anomalous periods of tornado 
TI - Forecasting Tornado Activity Weeks in Advance
JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DO - 10.1175/bams-d-19-0188.a
DA - 2020-08-07
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/american-meteorological-society/forecasting-tornado-activity-weeks-in-advance-XMUBeLnRCr
SP - 689
EP - 692
VL - 101
IS - 8
DP - DeepDyve
ER -