TY - JOUR
AU1 - RISBEY, JAMES
AB - AGENCY AND THE ASSIGNMENT OF PROBABILITIES TO GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS SCENARIOS An Editorial Comment Recent studies have begun to address the problem of assigning probabilities from end-to-end in projecting climate changes (Wigley and Raper, 2001; Schneider, 2001; Webster et al., 2003; Dessai and Hulme, 2004). That is, connecting the chain from projecting emissions and their uncertainties, translating emissions to concen- trations, and projecting climate responses taking account of uncertainties in climate sensitivity. Various studies have progressed in constraining climate sensitivity es- timates and in characterizing that via probability distributions (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Gregory et al., 2002). However, one of the main sticking points in the end-to-end chain has been the assigning of probabilities to emissions scenarios. When the IPCC SRES group released their greenhouse emissions scenarios they assigned ‘storylines’ to the different scenarios, but explicitly refrained from ascrib- ing likelihoods to the different scenarios (Nakiceno ´ vice ´ t al., 2000). Subsequent to the release of the SRES report there have been calls for the group to assign prob- abilities to the scenarios (Schneider, 2001; Pittock et al., 2001; Schneider, 2002), though they have resisted (Grubler ¨ and Nakiceno ´ vic, ´ 2001). Why has 
TI - Agency and the Assignment of Probabilities to Greenhouse Emissions Scenarios
JF - Climatic Change
DO - 10.1007/s10584-004-3762-1
DA - 2004-01-01
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/springer-journals/agency-and-the-assignment-of-probabilities-to-greenhouse-emissions-PgMD87dP0K
SP - 37
EP - 42
VL - 67
IS - 1
DP - DeepDyve
ER -