TY - JOUR AU1 - Timothy A. Waidmann, Korbin Liu AB - Objectives. This article used a new data source to examine the issue of disability trends among elderly persons and examined the potential implications of these trends on future health and long-term care needs. Methods. We used the 1992–1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to examine time trends in rates of activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living disability and physical limitation among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and over. We used multinomial logit and least squares regression techniques to produce trend estimates that held the age, sex, race, and educational distributions constant and projected these trends into the future. Finally, we estimated the potential impact of disability decline on per capita Medicare spending on elderly persons. Results. We found that disability among elderly persons is declining and that the trend toward a more educated elderly cohort explains some, but not all, of this decline. In the absence of downward disability trends, per capita Medicare expenditures would have grown even faster than they have. Discussion. Although the decline in disability prevalence in recent years appears real, whether it continues has enormous implications for the size of the disabled population in the future and for the ability of the society to care for its disabled elderly members. The Gerontological Society of America « Previous | Next Article » Table of Contents This Article J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci (2000) 55 (5): S298-S307. doi: 10.1093/geronb/55.5.S298 » Abstract Free Full Text (HTML) Free Full Text (PDF) Free Classifications Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences Services Article metrics Alert me when cited Alert me if corrected Find similar articles Similar articles in Web of Science Similar articles in PubMed Add to my archive Download citation Request Permissions Citing Articles Load citing article information Citing articles via CrossRef Citing articles via Scopus Citing articles via Web of Science Citing articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Waidmann, T. A. Articles by Liu, K. Search for related content PubMed PubMed citation Articles by Waidmann, T. A. Articles by Liu, K. Related Content Load related web page information Share Email this article CiteULike Delicious Facebook Google+ Mendeley Twitter What's this? 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