TY - JOUR
AU - Garrison, Jean A.
AB - Research on foreign policymaking has focused on the policy process and the organizational context around policy decisions to explain foreign policy behavior. This research tradition includes multiple theories and a wide variety of methodologies; it demonstrates complex relationships among foreign policy factors, and it links its scholarly research to practical policy concerns (see, for example, Neack, Hey, and Haney 1995; Hudson 2002). This essay focuses on one piece of this diverse picture—the study of decision groups—as a means of bridging the individual and organizational levels of analysis. In complex foreign policy cases involving uncertainty, political controversy, and conflicting values, members of decision groups (like the US president's inner circle) become central to the judgment process by defining the nature of the problem and presenting appropriate options for discussion. The more than thirty years of scholarship examining group dynamics provide us with a strong basis on which to determine when understanding what is happening in decision groups is critical to the study of foreign policy. An important claim in this literature is that group decision making (broadly defined) is relevant to understanding what presidents, prime ministers, and other foreign policy actors do in the foreign policy arena—even as the definition of what constitutes foreign policy and how foreign policy actors interact is expanded. This essay will assess past research on group decision making in order to set the stage for a discussion of the paths that future research might take. Two classics, Graham Allison's (1971),Essence of Decision and Irving Janis' (1972)Victims of Groupthink, serve as the starting point. An overview of the contributions of these pieces will be followed by critiques that provide a baseline to propose alternative avenues for the study of group decision making in the next two decades. In the process, we will consider the important question of how individual cognitions become aggregated to form group decisions. How Much Have We Moved beyond Groupthink and Bureaucratic Politics? Janis' (1972) volume became a pioneering work in the study of foreign policymaking by questioning the prevailing wisdom about the nature of group dynamics in the foreign-policy context. In explaining policy fiascoes such as John F. Kennedy's Bay of Pigs decision, Janis concluded that group decisions can limit options and lead to suboptimal policy choices. In his case studies, policymakers failed to achieve their goals because groupthink symptoms pressured members of the group into consensus-seeking behavior to the point that tolerance for dissenting viewpoints was reduced. The resulting conformity hindered the group's ability to make sound judgments (Janis 1972, 1982, 1989; see also Vertzberger 1990; 't Hart 1994). The “pulling and hauling” illustrated in Allison's (1971) bureaucratic politics model (Model III) represents another possible interaction pattern in a group setting. In this scenario, individuals with diverse parochial goals, beliefs, and motives compete for influence as they work to overcome their opposition. When officials with influence differ on how they want problems resolved, bargaining results. Although compromise decisions are the assumed outcome, they do not always occur. In fact, Yaacov Vertzberger (1990) argues that extreme competition with high levels of conflict can lead to naysaying or stalemates in which it is impossible to reach any sort of decision. Although Janis and Allison offer different explanations for what happens in the decision context, they share an emphasis on multiple actors contributing to the decision process and a range of potential policy processes and outcomes. For their efforts, these authors have faced a similar kind of question from the international relations community regarding the contribution their research (and others like it) have made to the field. From a philosophy of science perspective, critics argue that the assumptions of these models are ambiguous and arbitrary, that the propositions based on these assumptions are not rigorously derived, and that the relations among the variables are left obscure. Specifically, Allison's bureaucratic politics model has been described as “an analytical kitchen sink” (Bendor and Hammond 1992:314–319; Welch 1992). More recently, David Welch (1998) has argued that the bureaucratic politics model is guilty of inadequate conceptual development, underspecified variables, and unprovable methodological and empirical claims. Groupthink shares some of these same problems. For one, it has been difficult to directly observe concurrence-seeking behavior in the foreign-policy context, thus creating problems with empirical validation of the groupthink phenomenon. Critics argue that groupthink hypotheses have not been tested rigorously and accuse Janis of imposing his explanation on many of his cases (Longley and Pruitt 1980; George 1997). To Sally Fuller and Raymond Aldag (1997:92), “groupthink per se is a phenomenon lacking empirical support and resting on generally unsupported assumptions. Indeed, perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the groupthink model is its continuing appeal in the face of non-confirming evidence.” In light of these criticisms, the prevailing wisdom today recognizes that groupthink is a contingent property of foreign policymaking and just one of many possible dynamics among members of a group engaged in making a decision (see, for example, 't Hart, Stern, and Sundelius 1997; Hermann et al. 2001). Both Allison and Janis do fail to provide a completely coherent or fully specified model (or paradigm) on a scale that would please most positivists. To their critics, both theorists fail to make the hard choices about what variables each theory should include or exclude. Given that Allison along with Philip Zelikow reworked all three models in rewriting Essence of Decision in 1999, we might have assumed that they would address their critics. In the case of the bureaucratic politics model (Model III), however, they merely added related areas of research (for example, a discussion of two-level games, principal-agent issues, and agenda-setting and framing) giving the model the appearance of representing a grab bag of concepts. Additionally, the second edition of Essence of Decision fails to draw on the growing literature within social and political psychology on intragroup interactions (see Kaarbo and Gruenfeld 1998; 't Hart and Preston 1999). For example, from the research on political psychology, we know that leaders are motivated by complex factors, that their leadership styles affect advisory dynamics, and that they interact with one another in fairly predictable ways (see Preston 2001). Because Allison and Zelikow fail to incorporate this literature, they miss an opportunity to specify their variables more fully and to strengthen Model III especially. These criticisms, however, do not minimize the impact that the ideas regarding bureaucratic politics and groupthink still have on foreign policymaking or the possibilities for using them in future middle-range theorizing (see Kaarbo's essay in this symposium). These models helped scholars move away from the assumption of the state as a unitary rational actor and opened the black box of the government to show how the dynamic character of the decision process can shape foreign policy behavior. Even though it remains important to acknowledge that some criticisms of these models do, indeed, pose challenges, rather than undermining the approach they provide guidance regarding future debates in the study of foreign policy. Reviewing Persistent Challenges as a Guide to Future Directions A persistent challenge for this literature remains understanding how different individual influences interact within and across levels of analysis and how the resulting patterns of behavior influence policy choice. Eric Stern and Bengt Sundelius (1997) have proposed that we consider classifying group interaction patterns to include a range, running from conformity (that is, groupthink) to conflict (that is, bureaucratic politics), and the hybrids between these two extremes. This effort to classify behavior within the group provides the means to bridge one of the oldest conflicts between Allison and some of his critics, especially Stephen Krasner (1972), who claim that decision making is more than a bargaining process between competing role interests because the president selects individuals who share his values. Similarly, Robert Art's (1973) argument that shared mind-sets influence decision makers and their orientations (and thus mitigate Allison's bureaucratic competition) is reminiscent of some of the points made by Irving Janis. Because both consensus and dissensus are potential properties of the group process, room exists for considering complex motivations, shared mind-sets, bureaucratic conflict, and even norms that encourage dissenting points of view (George and Stern 2002). Thus, an integrated group dynamics perspective, culled from various approaches, would assume that decisions result from a collaborative process in which individual preferences are aggregated by one means or another. Studies that focus on individual cognition, perception and misperception, images, operational codes, beliefs systems, and attitudes provide us with some basis on which to understand how individual preferences can become aggregated as members of a group interact in the decision-making process. Although these bodies of knowledge complement the literature on group dynamics, they do not necessarily focus on it specifically. Brian Ripley (1995), for one, argues that studies such as those on bureaucratic politics illustrate how members of interdependent, competitive, and hierarchical decision groups reason about the policy process and what impact this reasoning has on foreign policy outputs. Eric Stern and Bertjan Verbeek (1998:244) insist that the bureaucratic politics literature provides us “with an array of conceptual tools and techniques” that are useful and often indispensable in interpreting policymaking (see also Rosenthal, 't Hart, and Kouzmin 1991). The challenge comes as we move beyond the narrow focus on the National Security Council, the Tuesday Lunch Group, or the ExComm (in the US context). Allison and Zelikow (1999) acknowledge that other ad hoc actors outside the US president's inner circle play a role in policymaking. Roger Hilsman's (1987) analysis of concentric circles of influence around the president demonstrates the wider potential inputs to decision processes and the need for flexibility when identifying influential players. Such actors can include governmental actors such as members of Congress but also in some instances lobbyists, the media, and the public. To handle the broadened definition of group decision making that this discussion suggests, we need to consider under what conditions the scope of the decision unit widens (or narrows). For one thing, we know that a leader's style and needs can shape the organization of an advisory system. Studies of the structure of advisory systems by Richard Tanner Johnson (1974) and Alexander George (1980), for example, have reported that different types of advisory structures (collegial, competitive, and formalistic) set the parameters for decisions. More recent research exploring whether the nature of the advisory system can influence who will become involved in making the decision (for example, Hoyt 1997; Preston 1997, 2001; Garrison 1999) lends support to these older studies. Analyzing the type of situation is another way of determining who is likely to participate in the decision-making group (see Rosati 1981). With issues that have a high level of presidential interest or during foreign policy crises, the decision-making circle closes. In these situations, the characteristics of the leader and major advisors become particularly important (Gaenslen 1992). Routine issues of little importance to the leader are handled further down in the bureaucracy and may follow a pattern of bureaucratic politics. By implication, when decisions are made in less hierarchical groups, or when an executive relies heavily on outside experts or needs to build a broader governing coalition, membership in the decision group widens and varies in terms of who is included. More explicitly, several scholars (Hermann, Hermann, and Hagan 1987; Hermann and Hagan 1998; Hagan and Hermann 2001; Hermann 2001a) have distinguished among different types of decision units found in the foreign policymaking literature—the predominant leader, single group, and coalition—and indicated the situations and types of political structures in which each is likely to be present, as well as how the nature of the decision unit can influence the foreign policy that results. Stern and Sundelius (1997) bring together many of the themes just discussed. They develop a five-step process to analyze critical contextual and group structural variables that channel group interaction patterns. These steps include investigating (1) the extra-group setting, (2) the intragroup setting (including group composition and structural variables), (3) the leadership practices of the group, (4) the level of cohesion in the group, and (5) the type and level of conflict in the group. Their analysis points to the need to take both the external context and the internal situation into account. Given the increasing importance of intermestic issues and the reality of the penetrated state, the flexibility that comes with a broader orientation becomes critical if we are to explain the input of new players and new foreign policy scenarios. (See Foyle's essay in this symposium.) By implication, studies of group decision making can and must be applied more generally to non-US and nonpresidential systems. This criticism has persisted because our most discussed examples remain Allison's discussion of the Cuban missile crisis, Morton Halperin's analysis of bureaucratic politics in the Johnson administration (Halperin, Clapp, and Kanter 1974), and Janis' focus on US foreign policy fiascoes. However, despite the disproportionate focus on US cases, the approaches we have been describing are not limited in scope to the United States. Indeed, power has been viewed as fluid and group interactions have been found to shift across and even within administrations. Within the US context and others, central players have different levels of status and authority in the group and greater or lesser opportunity to define problems favorably. Research on manipulation within the group—including strategies of exclusion and inclusion, agenda-setting, and issue framing—has shown how individuals other than the chief executive can determine who gets to make a decision, the nature of the group interaction process that will occur, and the particular decision that is likely to result (see Hoyt 1997; Hoyt and Garrison 1997; Garrison 1999, 2001). The critical issue in this instance is not nationality, but the degree of power-sharing in the policymaking group. Thirty years ago, Allison applied his model to a presidential system in which power was arranged more vertically than in other political systems. Recent research has illustrated how multiple actors can have individual bases of power and, as a result, how influence over outcomes becomes shared (see Maoz 1990b; Garrison 1999). For example, advisors like Henry Kissinger can bolster their positions when they manipulate the decision process and access to outside sources of information, thus, serving a gate-keeping function. Others can have considerable influence by using their expertise to add to their authority. The future group decision-making agenda must focus on political situations outside the US context, especially in places where power is organized more horizontally (that is, within cabinet systems and oligarchies). Conceptualizing group decision making more broadly, Juliet Kaarbo's (1998) work on minority influence in parliamentary systems is an example of the kind of cross-national study that is needed. Similarly, Paul 't Hart's (1994) analysis of groupthink as it applies to Dutch decision-making situations is a case in point. These individuals represent part of a cohort actively working to broaden the scope of the study of group decision making by taking a comparative perspective. Quality of Foreign Policy Judgments A core impetus for the study of foreign policymaking has been the desire to increase the quality of decision making by discovering an optimal organizational structure. From Allison to Janis to the present, scholars have worked to explain foreign policy phenomena with an eye to improving the process and the resulting policy choices. Janis' research clearly has a normative quality in that one of his reasons for studying groupthink was to illustrate the dangers of stereotyping in foreign policy because such processes tend to lead to high-risk behavior. The general problem-solving approach in his work, and that of others, is to provide policymakers with an analysis concerning how to fix defects within the system. A paradox emerges from these procedural efforts. When groupthink-like problems surface, Janis and others emphasize that the goal needs to be effective information processing through a more open and methodical presentation of options. Janis (1989), for instance, argues that vigilant decision making can be approximated in a series of steps that can guarantee the full presentation of policy options. Leaders who actively encourage others to participate, as John F. Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis, create a more vigilant decision-making process. Similarly, George's (1980) multiple advocacy proposal and the appointment of a devil's advocate to push for unpopular options are two techniques to make sure that the discussion on policy alternatives stays open to facilitate a full assessment of options (George 1980; Hermann 1993; George and Stern 2002). Moreover, other social psychologists, like Janis, have suggested that fostering teamwork and groups with open participation and leadership will encourage cohesion and, in turn, create a positive decision-making environment (see Hackman 1987; Varney 1991). Prescriptions concerning the conditions that lead to a dysfunctional group process as well as the fixes that are proposed, however, often arise from where the scholars themselves sit. The prescriptions generally vary depending on whether these scholars value the need for teamwork or the need for more diversity of opinions in the group process. Although such prescriptions supposedly offer the hope of error-free decision making, it is possible to overapply procedural fixes to policymaking pathologies. Pursuing a procedural fix such as appointing a devil's advocate to avoid extreme conformity may lead to a situation of conflict and bureaucratic politics over time. The political context within which decisions are made complicates the process even more. The time it would take to implement one of the fixes may not be available in a particular situation if time is of the essence. Additionally, the policy group may not be nearly as malleable as analysts believe; indeed, they may resist changing the nature of their group for the better. Research (Garrison, Hoyt, and Wituski 1997) indicates that these situational fixes are less likely to work if they are imported into the policymaking setting without regard to time constraints and resource issues. As this discussion suggests, no single organizational prescription is likely to fix all systems all the time. Instead, we need to adjust our expectations about what is possible and desirable to the specific policymaking context. Conclusions By evaluating the past along with the areas in need of change in the future, it becomes possible to identify predictable patterns in group dynamics and to show how they can influence policy choices. Three factors emerged as important in our review: (1) the ways in which members of a group interact, (2) the level of openness (that is, access and hierarchy) in the group, and (3) the role that the central leader in the group plays. For example, decisions made in a closed system, with a consensual interaction dynamic, and a strong central leader involve the consideration of fewer options and result in certain individuals taking a dominant, if not predominant, role in the proceedings. Decisions that occur in an open system, in which diverse views are presented and the central leader is weak, often include discussion of a range of possible options, result in compromise, or may even lead to deadlock when extensive disagreement among members exists. In both these scenarios, if we understand who is involved in the policymaking process and the rules or procedures governing how decisions are made in that group, it becomes possible to understand and even forecast policy choices. (For an example of an attempt to make such predictions, see Beasley et al. 2001.) The study of group decision making is still in its infancy; currently no coherent model or paradigm exists. But having such a paradigm is not the point. The future of the study of groups in foreign policy decision making rests on the assumption that complexity is valuable. A major reason for research on groups is to provide more accurate explanations of the decision process and the effects that the process can have on policy outcomes. After all, what are the various ways that policymakers use to resolve their disagreements when they do not have a shared view about what should happen, and how do the procedures they adopt under such conditions shape their choices, implementation of any decision, and further reflection on the problem? Future group decision-making analyses will benefit by continuing to promote research programs that are open to diverse perspectives and methods. An examination of past studies suggests that more exploration is needed on such aspects of group decision making as advisory processes, issue framing and agenda setting, and the exercise of leadership. These various strands are not necessarily linked nor do they constitute a complete view of this process. What they do share is a basic insight: to understand foreign policymaking demands knowledge about what is happening among the members of the group or groups involved in defining the problem, making choices, overseeing implementation of the decision, and evaluating the outcome. Multidisciplinary, cross-national studies will extend the reach of research in this area. One of the greatest challenges for the study of group decision making in the foreign policy arena over the next two decades is to expand its base of knowledge beyond the traditional focus on “high” politics in the US context. In the process, the study of group decision making in foreign policy may lose its distinctiveness from other problem-solving settings, such as occur in the making of public policy or comparative public policy. This potential loss of distinctiveness pales in comparison to the new doors that might open if we can demonstrate the applicability of what we have learned about the importance of groups in foreign policymaking to other areas of inquiry both inside and outside the field of international relations. References Alkan Michael L . ( 2001 ) Viral Epidemics: Past and Future . In Managing Crisis: Threats, Dilemmas, Opportunities , edited by Rosenthal Uriel Boin Arjen Comfort Louise K . Springfield, IL : Charles C. Thomas . Allison Graham T . ( 1971 ) The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis . Boston : Little Brown . Allison Graham T Zelikow Philip . ( 1999 ) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis , 2nd edition . New York : Longman . Angel Robert Charles . ( 1991 ) Explaining Economic Policy Failure: Japan in the 1969–1971 International Monetary Crisis . New York : Columbia University Press . Art Robert . ( 1973 ) Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique . Policy Sciences 4 : 467 – 490 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Auerswald David . ( 2000 ) Disarmed Democracies: Domestic Institutions and the Use of Force . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Axelrod Robert . ( 1976 ) The Analysis of Cognitive Maps . In The Structure of Decision , edited by Axelrod Robert . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Aydinli Ersel Mathews Julie . ( 2000 ) Are the Core and Periphery Irreconcilable? The Curious World of Publishing in Contemporary International Relations . International Studies Perspectives 1 : 289 – 303 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Baldwin David A . ( 1985 ) Economic Statecraft . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Banchoff Thomas . ( 1999 ) German Identity and European Integration . European Journal of International Relations 5 : 259 – 289 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Barkan Elazar . ( 2000 ) The Guilt of Nations: Restitution and Negotiating Historical Injustices . New York : W.W. Norton . Barnett Jon . ( 2001 ) The Meaning of Environmental Security: Ecological Politics and Policy in the New Security Era . London : Zed Books . Barnett Michael . ( 1999 ) Culture, Strategy, and Foreign Policy Change: Israel's Road to Oslo . European Journal of International Relations 5 : 5 – 36 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Barnett Michael N Finnemore Martha . ( 1999 ) The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations . International Organization 53 : 699 – 633 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Beasley Ryan K Kaarbo Juliet Hermann Charles F Hermann Margaret G . ( 2001 ) People and Processes in Foreign Policymaking: Insights from Comparative Case Studies . International Studies Review 3 (2): 217 – 250 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Beasley Ryan K Kaarbo Juliet Lantis Jeffrey S Snarr Michael T , eds. ( 2002 ) Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior . Washington, DC : CQ Press . Becker Elizabeth . ( 2001 ) F.B.I. Warns That Chinese May Disrupt U.S. Web Sites . New York Times April 28: A8 . Beer Francis A Healy Alice F Bourne Jr. . ( 2003 ) Dynamic Decisions: Experimental Reactions to War, Peace, and Terrorism . In Advances in Political Psychology , Vol. 1 . edited by Hermann Margaret G Lyle E . London : Elsevier . Bendor Jonathan Hammond Thomas . ( 1992 ) Rethinking Allison's Models . American Political Science Review 86 : 301 – 322 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bjereld Ulf Ekengren Ann-Marie . ( 1999 ) Foreign Policy Dimensions: A Comparison between the United States and Sweden . International Studies Quarterly 43 : 503 – 518 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bloom William . ( 1990 ) Personal Identity, National Identity, and International Relations . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Bovens Mark Hart Paul 't . ( 1996 ) Understanding Policy Fiascoes . New Brunswick : Transaction . Brecher Michael . ( 1972 ) The Foreign Policy System of Israel: Setting, Images, and Process . New Haven : Yale University Press . Brecher Michael . ( 1977 ) India's Devaluation of 1966: Linkage Politics and Crisis Decision Making . British Journal of International Studies 3 : 1 – 25 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Brecher Michael . ( 1993 ) Crisis in World Politics: Theory and Reality . New York : Pergamon . Brecher Michael Wilkenfeld Jonathan . ( 1997 ) A Study of Crisis . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Brecher Michael Steinburg Blema Stein Janice Gross . ( 1969 ) A Framework of Analysis for Studying Foreign Policy Behavior . Journal of Conflict Resolution 13 : 75 – 101 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Breuning Marijke . ( 1995 ) Words and Deeds: Foreign Assistance Rhetoric and Policy Behavior in the Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK . International Studies Quarterly 39 : 235 – 254 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bryder Tom . ( 1998 ) The Human Face of Politics: Essays on Political Psychology and Politicised Culture in the Twentieth Century . Copenhagen : Copenhagen Political Studies Press . Bueno de Mesquita Bruce . ( 1981 ) The War Trap . New Haven : Yale University Press . Bueno de Mesquita Bruce . ( 2002 ) Domestic Politics and International Relations . International Studies Quarterly 46 : 1 – 9 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bueno de Mesquita Bruce Lalman David . ( 1992 ) War and Reason . New Haven : Yale University Press . Buzan Barry . ( 1991 ) People, States, and Fear . 2nd edition . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Buzan Barry Waever Ole Wilde Jaap De . ( 1998 ) Security: A New Framework of Analysis . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Byman Daniel L Pollack Kenneth M . ( 2001 ) Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In. International Security 25 : 107 – 146 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bynander Fredrik . ( 2003 ) The Rise and Fall of the Submarine Threat: Threat Politics and Submarine Intrusions in Sweden, 1980–2002. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Government, Uppsala University, Sweden. Caldwell Dan . ( 1977 ) Bureaucratic Foreign Policy-Making . American Behavioral Scientist 21 : 87 – 110 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Carlsnaes Walter . ( 1986 ) Ideology and Foreign Policy: Problems of Comparative Conceptualization . Oxford : Basil Blackwell . Carlsnaes Walter . ( 1992 ) The Agency-Structure Problem in Foreign Policy Analysis . International Studies Quarterly 36 : 245 – 270 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Carlsnaes Walter . ( 1994 ) In Lieu of a Conclusion: Compatibility and the Agency-Structure Issue in Foreign Policy Analysis . In European Foreign Policy: The EC and Changing Perspectives in Europe , edited by Carlsnaes Walter Smith Steve . London : Sage . Carlsnaes Walter . ( 2002 ) Foreign Policy . In Handbook of International Relations , edited by Carlsnaes Walter Risse-Kappen Thomas Simmons Beth A , London : Sage . Carr E. H . ( 2001 ) The Twenty Years' Crisis, 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations . Basingstoke : Palgrave . Chafetz Glenn Abramson Hillel Grillot Suzette . ( 1996 ) Role Theory and Foreign Policy: Belarussian and Ukrainian Compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime . Political Psychology 17 : 727 – 757 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Cottam Martha L . ( 1986 ) Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Influence of Cognition . Boulder : Westview Press . Cottam Richard W . ( 1977 ) Foreign Policy Motivation: A General Theory and a Case Study . Pittsburgh : University of Pittsburgh Press . Craig Gordon A George Alexander L . ( 1995 ) Force and Statecraft . 3rd edition . New York : Oxford University Press . D'Anieri Paul . ( 2002 ) Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity, Revolution, and the Search for Status . In Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior , edited by Beasley Ryan K Kaarbo Juliet Lantis Jeffrey S Snarr Michael T . Washington, DC : CQ Press . Deibert Ronald J . ( 2000 ) International Plug 'n Play? Citizen Activism, the Internet, and Global Public Policy . International Studies Perspectives 1 : 255 – 272 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Deudney Daniel H Mathew Richard A , eds. ( 1999 ) Contested Grounds: Security and Conflict in the New Environmental Politics . Albany : State University of New York Press . Dewey John . ( 1938 ) Logic: The Theory of Inquiry . New York : Henry Holt . Dizard Wilson Jr. . ( 2001 ) Digital Diplomacy . Westport, CT : Praeger . Duke Simon . ( 2002 ) The EU and Crisis Management: Development and Prospects . Maastricht : European Institute of Public Administration . Edelman Murray J . ( 1988 ) Constructing the Political Spectacle . Chicago : University of Chicago Press . Edwards Michael Gaventa John , eds. ( 2001 ) Global Citizen Action . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Eichenberg Richard C . ( 1989 ) Public Opinion and National Security in Western Europe . Ithaca : Cornell University Press . Elman Miriam Fendius , ed. ( 1997 ) Paths to Peace: Is Democracy the Answer? Cambridge, MA : MIT Press . Eriksson Johan , ed. ( 2001 ) Threat Politics: New Perspectives on Security, Risk, and Crisis Management . Aldershot : Ashgate . Farnham Barbara . ( 1997 ) Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis: A Study in Political Decision-Making . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Fearon James D . ( 1994 ) Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes . American Political Science Review 88 : 577 – 592 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Fiske Susan T Taylor Shelley E . ( 1991 ) Social Cognition . 2nd edition . New York : McGraw-Hill . Foyle Douglas . ( 1997 ) Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Elite Beliefs as a Mediating Variable . International Studies Quarterly 41 : 141 – 169 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Foyle Douglas . ( 1999 ) Counting the Public In: Presidents, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy . New York : Columbia University Press . Friedman Thomas L . ( 1999 ) The Lexus and the Olive Tree . New York : Farrar, Straus, & Giroux . Fukuyama Francis . ( 1992 ) The End of History and the Last Man . New York : Free Press . Fuller Sally Aldag Raymond . ( 1997 ) Challenging the Mindguards: Moving Small Group Analysis beyond Groupthink . In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making , edited by Hart Paul 't Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Gaddis John Lewis . ( 2002 ) A Grand Strategy of Transformation . Foreign Policy 133 (Nov/Dec) : 50 – 57 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Gaenslen Fritz . ( 1992 ) Decision-Making Groups . In Political Psychology and Foreign Policy , edited by Singer Eric Hudson Valerie . Boulder : Westview Press . Garrison Jean . ( 1999 ) Games Advisors Play: Foreign Policy Advisors in the Influence Process . College Station : Texas A&M University Press . Garrison Jean . ( 2001 ) Framing Foreign Policy Alternatives in the Inner Circle: The President, His Advisors, and the Struggle for the Arms Control Agenda . Political Psychology 22 : 775 – 807 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Garrison Jean Hoyt Paul Wituski Deborah . ( 1997 ) Managing Intragroup Relations in Foreign Policy: Prescriptions, Assumptions, and Consequences . Cooperation and Conflict 13 : 263 – 286 . George Alexander L. ( 1969 ) The “Operational Code”: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making . International Studies Quarterly 13 : 190 – 222 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS George Alexander L. ( 1979a ) Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison . In Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy , edited by Lauren Paul G . New York : Free Press . George Alexander L. ( 1979b ) The Causal Nexus Between Cognitive Beliefs and Decision-Making Behavior: The “Operational Code.” In Psychological Models in International Politics , edited by Falkowski Lawrence S . Boulder : Westview Press . George Alexander L . ( 1980 ) Presidential Decision Making in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice . Boulder : Westview Press . George Alexander L , ed. ( 1991 ) Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management . Boulder : Westview Press . George Alexander . ( 1997 ) From Groupthink to Contextual Analysis of Policymaking Groups . In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making , edited by Hart Paul 't Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . George Alexander L McKeown Timothy J . ( 1985 ) Case Studies and Theories of Organizational Decision Making . Advances in Information Processing in Organizations 2 : 21 – 58 . George Alexander L Smoke Richard . ( 1974 ) Deterrence in American Foreign Policy . New York : Columbia University Press . George Alexander L Stern Eric . ( 2002 ) Harnessing Conflict in Foreign Policy Making: From Devil's Advocate to Multiple Advocacy . Presidential Studies Quarterly 32 : 484 – 508 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Geva Nehemia DeRouen K. R Mintz Alex . ( 1993 ) The Political Incentive Explanation of “Democratic Peace”: Evidence from Experimental Research . International Interactions 18 : 215 – 229 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Glaberson William . ( 2001 ) U.S. Courts Become Arbiters of Global Rights and Wrongs . New York Times June 21: A1 . Goertz Gary . ( 1994 ) Contexts of International Politics . New York : Cambridge University Press . Goldstein Judith . ( 1988 ) Ideas, Institutions, and American Trade Policy . International Organization 42 : 179 – 217 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Goldstein Judith Keohane Robert . ( 1993 ) Ideas and Foreign Policy: An Analytical Framework . In Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change , edited by Goldstein Judith Keohane Robert . Ithaca : Cornell University Press . Gordon Michael R . ( 2003a ) Iraq Strategy Is Seen as Delay and Urban Battle . New York Times February 16: 1 . Gordon Michael R . ( 2003b ) Hussein's Likely Plan: Make a Stand in Baghdad . New York Times March 5: A12 . Gourevitch Peter A . ( 1978 ) The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics . International Organization 32 : 881 – 912 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Graham Thomas W . ( 1994 ) Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy Decision Making . In The New Politics of American Foreign Policy , edited by Deese David A . New York : St. Martin's Press . Granovetter Mark . ( 1992 ) The Sociological and Economic Approaches to Labor Market Analysis: A Social Structural View . In The Sociology of Economic Life , edited by Granovetter Mark S Swedberg Richard . Boulder : Westview Press . Greenstein Fred . ( 2000 ) The Presidential Difference: Leadership Style from FDR to Clinton . New York : Free Press . Grönvall Jesper . ( 2000 ) Managing Crisis in the European Union: The Commission and Mad Cow Disease . Stockholm : CRISMART/The Swedish National Defence College . Grove Andrea . ( 2001 ) The Intra-National Struggle to Define “Us”: External Intervention as a Two-Way Street . International Studies Quarterly 45 : 357 – 388 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Gunaratna Rohan . ( 2002 ) Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror . London : Hurst . Hackman J. Richard . ( 1987 ) The Design of Work Teams . In Handbook of Organizational Behavior , edited by Lorsch Jay W . Englewood Cliffs, NJ : Prentice Hall . Hagan Joe D . ( 1993 ) Political Opposition and Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Hagan Joe D . ( 1994 ) Domestic Political Systems and War Proneness . Mershon International Studies Review 38 : 183 – 207 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hagan Joe D Hermann Margaret G , eds. ( 2001 ) Leaders, Groups, and Coalitions: Understanding the People and Processes in Foreign Policymaking . Boston : Blackwell . Halperin Morton H Clapp Priscilla Kanter Arnold . ( 1974 ) Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy . Washington, DC : Brookings Institution . Haney Patrick J . ( 1997 ) Organizing for Foreign Policy Crises: Presidents, Advisers, and the Management of Decision Making . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Hermann Charles F . ( 1963 ) Some Consequences of Crisis Which Limit the Viability of Organizations . Administrative Science Quarterly 8 : 61 – 82 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Charles F , ed. ( 1972 ) International Crises: Insights From Behavioral Research . New York : Free Press . Hermann Charles F . ( 1989 ) On International Crises and National Security . In Security and Arms Control , edited by Kolodziej T Morgan P . New York : Greenwood Press . Hermann Charles F . ( 1993 ) Avoiding Pathologies in Foreign Policy Decision Groups . In Force, Diplomacy and Leadership: Essays in Honor of Alexander George , edited by Caldwell Dan McKeown Timothy J . Boulder : Westview Press . Hermann Charles F Peacock Gregory . ( 1987 ) The Evolution and Future of Theoretical Research in the Comparative Study of Foreign Policy . In New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy , edited by Hermann Charles F Kegley James N Jr. Rosenau Charles W . Boston : Allen & Unwin . Hermann Charles F Stein Janice Gross Sundelius Bengt Walker Stephen G . ( 2001 ) Resolve, Accept, or Avoid: Effects of Group Conflict on Foreign Policy Decisions . International Studies Review 3 (2) : 133 – 168 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Margaret G. ( 1974 ) Leader Personality and Foreign Policy Behavior . In Comparing Foreign Policies: Theories, Findings, and Methods , edited by Rosenau James N . New York : Wiley . Hermann Margaret G . ( 1977 ) Some Personal Characteristics Related to Foreign Aid Voting of Congressmen . In A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders , edited by Hermann Margaret G . New York : Free Press . Hermann Margaret G . ( 1980a ) Assessing the Personalities of Soviet Politburo Members . Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 6 : 332 – 352 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Margaret G . ( 1980b ) Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders . International Studies Quarterly 24 : 7 – 46 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Margaret G . ( 1984 ) Personality and Foreign Policymaking: A Study of 53 Heads of Government . In Foreign Policy Decision Making: Perceptions, Cognitions, and Artificial Intelligence , edited by Sylvan Donald A Chan Steve . New York : Praeger . Hermann Margaret G . ( 2001a ) How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Framework . International Studies Review 3 (2) : 47 – 81 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Margaret G . ( 2001b ) Preface . International Studies Review 3 (2) : 1 – 4 . Hermann Margaret G Hagan Joe D . ( 1998 ) International Decision Making: Leadership Matters . Foreign Policy 110 : 124 – 137 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Margaret G Hermann Charles F . ( 1989 ) Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry . International Studies Quarterly 33 : 361 – 387 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hermann Margaret G Hermann Charles F Hagan Joe D . ( 1987 ) How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy Behavior . In New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy , edited by Hermann Charles F Kegley James N Jr. Rosenau Charles W . Boston : Allen & Unwin . Hermann Margaret G Kegley Charles W . ( 1995 ) Rethinking Democracy and International Peace: Perspectives from Political Psychology . International Studies Quarterly 39 : 511 – 533 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Herrmann Richard K . ( 1988 ) The Empirical Challenge of the Cognitive Revolution: A Strategy for Drawing Inferences about Perceptions . International Studies Quarterly 32 : 175 – 204 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Herrmann Richard K Voss James F Schooler Tanya Y. E Ciarrochi Joseph . ( 1997 ) Images in International Relations: An Experimental Test of Cognitive Schemata . International Studies Quarterly 41 : 403 – 433 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hess Gary R . ( 2001 ) Presidential Decisions for War: Korea, Vietnam, and the Persian Gulf . Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press . Hill Christopher , ed. ( 1996 ) The Actors in Europe's Foreign Policy . London : Routledge . Hilsman Roger . ( 1987 ) The Politics of Policymaking in Defense and Foreign Affairs . Englewood Cliffs, NJ : Prentice-Hall . Hogg Michael A Abrams Dominic . ( 1990 ) Social Identifications: A Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations and Group Processes . New York : Routledge . Hollis Martin Smith Steve . ( 1990 ) Explaining and Understanding International Relations . Oxford : Clarendon Press . Holsti Kal . ( 1970 ) National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy . International Studies Quarterly 14 : 233 – 309 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Holsti Ole R . ( 1970 ) The Operational Code Approach to the Study of Political Leaders: John Foster Dulles' Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs . Canadian Journal of Political Science 3 : 123 – 157 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Holsti Ole R . ( 1972 ) Crisis, Escalation, War . Montreal : McGill-Queens University Press . Holsti Ole R . ( 1976a ) Cognitive Dynamics and Images of the Enemy . Journal of International Affairs 21 : 16 – 39 . Holsti Ole R . ( 1976b ) Foreign Policy Formation Viewed Cognitively . In Structure of Decision , edited by Axelrod Robert M . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Holsti Ole R . ( 1992 ) Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Challenges to the Almond-Lippmann Consensus . International Studies Quarterly 36 : 439 – 466 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hopf Ted . ( 2002 ) Social Construction of International Politics: Identities and Foreign Policies, Moscow, 1955 and 1999 . Ithaca : Cornell University Press . Hoyt Paul . ( 1997 ) The Political Manipulation of Group Composition . Political Psychology 18 : 771 – 790 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hoyt Paul Garrison Jean . ( 1997 ) Political Manipulation within the Small Group: Foreign Policy Advisers in the Carter Administration . In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making , edited by Hart Paul 't Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Hudson Valerie . ( 2002 ) Foreign Policy Decision-Making: A Touchstone for International Relations Theory in the Twenty-first Century . In Foreign Policy Decisionmaking (Revisited) , edited by Snyder Richard C Bruck Henry W Sapin Burton . New York : Palgrave/Macmillan . Hudson Valerie Vore C. S . ( 1995 ) Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow . Mershon International Studies Review 39 : 209 – 238 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Huntington Samuel . ( 1996 ) The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order . New York : Simon and Schuster . Isernia Pierangelo . ( 2000 ) Where Angels Fear to Tread: Italian Public Opinion and Foreign Policy . In Decisionmaking in a Glass House , edited by Nacos Brigitte Lebens Shapiro Robert Y Isernia Pierangelo . Lanham, MD : Rowman & Littlefield . Isernia Pierangelo Juhasz Zoltan Rattinger Hans . ( 2002 ) Foreign Policy and the Rational Public in Comparative Perspective . Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 : 201 – 214 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Jacobs Lawrence Shapiro Robert . ( 1995 ) The Rise of Political Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective . Public Opinion Quarterly 59 : 163 – 195 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Janis Irving . ( 1972 ) Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes . Boston : Houghton Mifflin . Janis Irving . ( 1982 ) Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes . 2nd edition . Boston : Houghton Mifflin . Janis Irving . ( 1989 ) Crucial Decisions: Leadership in Policymaking and Crisis Management . New York : Free Press . Jentleson Bruce , ed. ( 1999 ) Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized: Preventive Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World . New York : Rowman & Littlefield . Jervis Robert . ( 1976 ) Perception and Misperception in International Politics . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Jervis Robert . ( 2002 ) What Ever Happened to Mutual Assured Deterrence? Foreign Policy 133 (Nov/Dec) : 40 – 42 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Jervis Robert Lebow Richard Ned Stein Janice Gross . ( 1985 ) Psychology and Deterrence . Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press . Johnson Richard Tanner . ( 1974 ) Managing the White House . New York : Harper & Row . Kaarbo Juliet . ( 1998 ) Power Politics in Foreign Policy: The Influence of Bureaucratic Minorities . European Journal of International Relations 4 : 67 – 97 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kaarbo Juliet Beasley Ryan . ( 1998 ) A Political Perspective on Minority Influence and Strategic Group Composition . In Research on Managing Groups and Teams , Vol. 1 . edited by Neale Margaret A Mannix Elizabeth Gruenfeld Deborah H . Stamford, CT : JAI Press . Kaarbo Juliet Beasley Ryan . ( 1999 ) A Practical Guide to the Comparative Case Study Method in Political Psychology . Political Psychology 20 : 369 – 391 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kaarbo Juliet Gruenfeld Deborah . ( 1998 ) The Social Psychology of Inter- and Intragroup Conflict in Governmental Politics . Mershon International Studies Review 42 : 226 – 233 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kaarbo Juliet Hermann Margaret G . ( 1998 ) Leadership Styles of Prime Ministers: How Individual Differences Affect the Foreign Policymaking Process . Leadership Quarterly 9 : 243 – 263 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kagan Robert . ( 2003 ) Of Paradise and Power: America vs. Europe in the New World Order . New York : Knopf . Kaplan Robert . ( 2000 ) The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post-Cold War . New York : Random House . Katzenstein Peter . ( 1993 ) Coping with Terrorism: Norms and Internal Security in Germany and Japan . In Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change , edited by Goldstein Judith Keohane Robert O . Ithaca : Cornell University Press . Katzenstein Peter , ed. ( 1996 ) The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics . New York : Columbia University Press . Katzenstein Peter J Keohane Robert O Krasner Stephen D . ( 1998 ) International Organization and the Study of World Politics . International Organization 52 : 645 – 685 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kegley Charles W Jr. . ( 1980 ) The Comparative Study of Foreign Policy: Paradigm Lost? Columbia : Institute of International Studies, University of South Carolina . Khong Yuen Foong . ( 1992 ) Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965 . Princeton : Princeton University Press . King Gary Keohane Robert Verba Sidney . ( 1994 ) Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Klarevas Louis . ( 2002 ) The “Essential Domino” of Military Operations: American Public Opinion and the Use of Force . International Studies Perspectives 3 : 417 – 437 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kleiboer Marieke . ( 1998 ) The Multiple Realities of International Mediation . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Klein Gary A . ( 2001 ) Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions . Cambridge, MA : MIT Press . Kowert Paul . ( 2002 ) Groupthink or Deadlock? Albany : State University of New York Press . Krasner Stephen . ( 1972 ) Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison's Wonderland) . Foreign Policy 7 : 159 – 179 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kubálková Vendulka , ed. ( 2001 ) Foreign Policy in a Constructed World . Armonk, NY : M.E. Sharpe . Kuhn Thomas . ( 1970 ) The Structure of Scientific Revolution . 2nd edition . Chicago : University of Chicago Press . Kupchan Charles A . ( 2002 ) The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-first Century . New York : Knopf . Kurtzman Joel Rifkin Glenn . ( 2001 ) Radical E from GE to Enron: Lessons on How to Rule the Web . New York : Wiley . La Balme Natalie . ( 2000 ) Constraint, Catalyst, or Political Tool? The French Public and Foreign Policy . In Decisionmaking in a Glass House , edited by Nacos Brigitte Lebens Shapiro Robert Y Isernia Pierangelo . Lanham, MD : Rowman & Littlefield . Lakatos Imre . ( 1970 ) Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes . In Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge , edited by Lakatos Imre Musgrave Alan . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Lantis Jeffrey S . ( 2002 ) Contemporary German Foreign Policy . In Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior , edited by Beasley Ryan K Kaarbo Juliet Lantis Jeffrey S Snarr Michael T . Washington, DC : CQ Press . Lapid Yosef Kratochwil Friedrich , eds. ( 1996 ) The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory . Boulder : Lynne Rienner Publishers . Larson Deborah . ( 1985 ) Origins of Containment: A Psychological Explanation . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Laudan Larry . ( 1977 ) Progress and Its Problems: Toward a Theory of Scientific Growth . Berkeley : University of California Press . Lebow Richard Ned . ( 1981 ) Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis . Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press . Lebow Richard Ned Stein Janice Gross . ( 1994 ) We All Lost the Cold War . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Leites Nathan . ( 1951 ) The Operational Code of the Politburo . New York : McGraw-Hill . Lepgold Joseph Lamborn Alan C . ( 2001 ) Locating Bridges: Connecting Research Agendas on Cognition and Strategic Choice . International Studies Review 3 (3) : 3 – 29 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Liberatore Angela . ( 1993 ) Chernobyl Comes to Italy: The Reciprocal Relationships of Radiation Experts, Government Policies, and the Media . In The Politics of Expert Advice: Creating, Using, and Manipulating Scientific Knowledge for Public Policy , edited by Barker Anthony Peters B.Guy . Edinburgh : The University of Edinburgh Press . Light Margot . ( 1994 ) Foreign Policy Analysis . In Contemporary International Relations: A Guide to Theory , edited by Groom A. J. R Light Margot . London : Pinter . Longley Jeanne Pruitt Dean G . ( 1980 ) Groupthink: A Critique of Janis' Theory . In Review of Personality and Social Psychology , Vol. 1 . edited by Wheeler L . Beverly Hills, CA : Sage . McClelland Charles . ( 1972 ) The Beginning, Duration, and Abatement of International Crises . In International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research , edited by Hermann Charles F . New York : Free Press . Mansfield Edward D Snyder Jack . ( 1995 ) Democratization and the Danger of War . International Security 20 : 5 – 38 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Maoz Zeev . ( 1990a ) National Choices and International Processes . New York : Cambridge University Press . Maoz Zeev . ( 1990b ) Framing the National Interest. The Manipulation of Foreign Policy Decisions in Group Settings . World Politics 43 : 77 – 110 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS March James G Olsen Johan P . ( 1989 ) Rediscovering Institutions: The Organizational Basis of Politics . New York : Free Press . Margolis Michael Mauser Gary A . ( 1989 ) Manipulating Public Opinion: Essays on Public Opinion as a Dependent Variable . Pacific Grove, CA : Brooks/Cole . Marra Robin F Ostrom Charles W Simon Dennis M . ( 1990 ) Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity . Journal of Conflict Resolution 34 : 588 – 623 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Maruyama Masao . ( 1990 ) Economic Crisis in Japan's Foreign Policy: The 1973 Oil Crisis. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, DC, April 10–14. Mead Walter Russell . ( 2002 ) Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World . New York : Routledge . Mearsheimer John J . ( 2001 ) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics . New York : Norton . Memorandum of Discussion . ( March 31, 1953 ) Special Meeting of the NSC. In Box 4, NSC Series. Papers of Dwight D. Eisenhower as President, 1953–1961, Eisenhower Library. Google Scholar Memorandum of Discussion . ( August 18, 1954 ) Discussion at the 211th Meeting of the National Security Council, NSC Series. Papers of Dwight D. Eisenhower as President, 1953–1961, Eisenhower Library. Google Scholar Milliken Jennifer . ( 2001 ) Discourse Study: Bringing Rigor to Critical Theory . In Constructing International Relations: The Next Generation , edited by Fierke K. M Jorgensen K. E . Armonk, NY : M.E. Sharpe . Milner Helen . ( 1997 ) Interests, Institutions, and Information . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Mintz Alex , ed. ( 2002 ) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making . New York : Palgrave . Mintz Alex Geva Nehemiah . ( 1993 ) Why Don't Democracies Fight Each Other? An Experimental Assessment of the “Political Incentive” Explanation . Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 : 484 – 503 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Mintz Alex Geva Nehemia . ( 1997 ) The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decisionmaking . In Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate , edited by Geva Nehemia Mintz Alex . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Mitroff Ian Kilmann Ralph H . ( 1984 ) Corporate Tragedies . London : Praeger . Mitroff Ian Pearson Christine M Mitroff A . ( 1993 ) Crisis Management: A Diagnostic Guide for Improving Your Organization's Preparedness . San Francisco : Jossey-Bass . Morgan Gareth . ( 1986 ) Images of Organization . London : Sage . Morgan Patrick M . ( 1983 ) Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis . 2nd edition . London : Sage . Morgenthau Hans . ( 1948 ) Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace . New York : Knopf . Murray Shoon Kathleen Howard Peter . ( 2002 ) Variations in White House Polling Operations: Carter to Clinton . Public Opinion Quarterly 66 : 527 – 558 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Nacos Brigitte L Shapiro Robert Y Hritzuk Natasha Chadwick Bruce . ( 2000 ) New Issues and the Media: American and German News Coverage of the Global-Warming Debate . In Decisionmaking in a Glass House , edited by Nacos Brigitte Lebens Shapiro Robert Y Isernia Pierangelo . Lanham, MD : Roman & Littlefield . Nau Henry R . ( 2002 ) At Home Abroad: Identity and Power in American Foreign Policy . Ithaca : Cornell University Press . Neack Laura Hey Jeanne A. K Haney Patrick Jude , eds. ( 1995 ) Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation . Englewood Cliffs, NJ : Prentice Hall . Neustadt Richard E May Ernest R . ( 1986 ) Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-makers . New York : Free Press . Noji Eric K . ( 2001 ) The Global Resurgence of Infectious Disease . Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 9 : 223 – 232 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Oneal John R . ( 1982 ) Foreign Policy Making in Times of Crisis . Columbus : Ohio State University Press . Onuf Nicholas . ( 1989 ) World of Our Making . Columbia : University of South Carolina Press . Page Benjamin Shapiro Robert . ( 1983 ) Effects of Public Opinion on Policy . American Political Science Review 77 : 175 – 190 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Paige Glenn D . ( 1968 ) The Korean Decision, June 24–30, 1950 . New York : Free Press . Parker Charles F Stern Eric K . ( 2002 ) Blindsided: September 11 and the Origins of Strategic Surprise . Political Psychology 23 : 601 – 630 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Pavri Tinaz . ( 2002 ) From Consensus to Disarray: Indian Foreign Policy in the New Millennium . In Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior , edited by Beasley Ryan K Kaarbo Juliet Lantis Jeffrey S Snarr Michael T . Washington, DC : CQ Press . Peters B. Guy . ( 1999 ) Institutional Theory in Political Science: The “New Institutionalism.” London : Pinter . Popper Karl . ( 1970 ) Normal Science and Its Dangers . In Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge , edited by Lakatos Imre Musgrave Alan . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Powlick Philip J Katz Andrew Z . ( 1998 ) Defining the American Public Opinion/Foreign Policy Nexus . Mershon International Studies Review 42 : 29 – 61 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Preston Thomas . ( 1997 ) “Following the Leader”: The Impact of U.S. Presidential Style upon Advisory Group Dynamics, Structure, and Decision . In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making , edited by Hart Paul 't Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Preston Thomas . ( 2001 ) The President and His Inner Circle: Leadership Style and the Advisory Process in Foreign Affairs . New York : Columbia University Press . Putnam Robert D . ( 1988 ) Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games . International Organization 42 : 427 – 460 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Ragin Charles C . ( 1987 ) The Comparative Method: Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies . Berkeley : University of California Press . Ragin Charles C . ( 1994 ) Constructing Social Research: The Unity and Diversity of Method . Thousand Oaks, CA : Pine Forge . Ranstorp Magnus . ( 1997 ) Hizb'allah in Lebanon: The Politics of the Western Hostage Crisis . London : Macmillan . Redd Steven B . ( 2002 ) The Influence of Advisers on Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Experimental Study . Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 : 335 – 364 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Regelsberger Elfriede Schoutheete Philippe de Wessels Wolfgang , eds. ( 1997 ) The Foreign Policy of the European Union: From EPC to CFSP and Beyond . Boulder : Lynne Rienner . Reinalda Bob Verbeek Bertjan , eds. ( 1998 ) Autonomous Policy Making by International Organizations . London : Routledge . Reinalda Bob Verbeek Bertjan . ( 2003 ) Decision Making within International Organizations . London : Routledge . Richardson James L . ( 1994 ) Crisis Diplomacy: The Great Powers Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century . New York : Cambridge University Press . Ripley Brian . ( 1993 ) Psychology, Foreign Policy, and International Relations Theory . Political Psychology 14 : 403 – 416 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Ripley Brian . ( 1995 ) Cognition, Culture, and Bureaucratic Politics . In Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation , edited by Neack Laura Hey Jeanne A. K Haney Patrick J . Englewood Cliffs, NJ : Prentice Hall . Ripley Brian . ( 2002 ) China: Defining Its Role in the Global Community . In Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior , edited by Beasley Ryan K Kaarbo Juliet Lantis Jeffrey S Snarr Michael T . Washington, DC : CQ Press . Risse Thomas Daniela Engelmann-Martin Knopf Hans-Joachim Roscher Klaus . ( 1999 ) To Euro or Not to Euro? The EMU and Identity Politics in the European Union . European Journal of International Relations 5 : 147 – 187 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Risse-Kappen Thomas . ( 1991 ) Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies . World Politics 43 : 479 – 512 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Rosati Jerel . ( 1981 ) Developing a Systematic Decision-making Framework . World Politics 33 : 234 – 252 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Rosati Jerel . ( 2000 ) The Power of Human Cognition in the Study of World Politics . International Studies Review 2 (3) : 45 – 75 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Rosenau James N . ( 1968 ) Comparative Foreign Policy: Fad, Fantasy, or Field? International Studies Quarterly 12 : 296 – 329 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Rosenau James N . ( 1992 ) Turbulence in World Politics: A Theory of Change and Continuity . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Rosenthal Uriel Boin Arjen Comfort Louise K , eds. ( 2001 ) Managing Crisis: Threats, Dilemmas, Opportunities . Springfield, IL : Charles C. Thomas . Rosenthal Uriel Hart Paul 't Charles M , eds. ( 1989 ) Coping with Crises: The Management of Disasters, Riots, and Terrorism . Springfield, IL : Charles C. Thomas . Rosenthal Uriel Hart Paul 't Kouzmin Alexander . ( 1991 ) The Bureau-Politics of Crisis Management . Public Administration 69 : 211 – 233 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Sabatier Paul , ed. ( 1999 ) Theories of the Policy Process . Boulder : Westview Press . Schafer Mark . ( 1997 ) Images and Policy Preferences . Political Psychology 18 : 813 – 829 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Schafer Mark Crichlow Scott . ( 2002 ) The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink . International Studies Quarterly 46 : 45 – 68 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Shanker Thom Schmitt Eric . ( 2003 ) Firing Leaflets and Electrons: U.S. Wages Information War . New York Times February 24: 1 . Shapiro Robert Y Jacobs Lawrence R . ( 2000 ) Who Leads and Who Follows? U.S. Presidents, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy . In Decisionmaking in a Glass House , edited by Nacos Brigitte Lebens Shapiro Robert Y Isernia Pierangelo . Lanham, MD : Roman & Littlefield . Singer J. David . ( 1969 ) The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations . In International Politics and Foreign Policy: A Reader in Research and Theory , edited by Rosenau James N . New York : Free Press . Sinnott Richard . ( 2000 ) Public Opinion and European Integration: Permissive Consensus or Premature Politicization? In Decisionmaking in a Glass House , edited by Nacos Brigitte Lebens Shapiro Robert Y Isernia Pierangelo . Lanham, MD : Roman & Littlefield . Slatter Stuart . ( 1984 ) Corporate Recovery: A Guide to Turnabout Management . New York : Penguin . Smith Steve . ( 1986 ) Theories of Foreign Policy: An Historical Overview . Review of International Studies 12 : 13 – 29 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Smith Steve . ( 2001 ) Foreign Policy Is What States Make of It: Social Construction and International Relations Theory . In Foreign Policy in a Constructed World , edited by Kubálková Vendulka . Armonk, NY : M.E. Sharpe . Snyder Glenn H Diesing Paul . ( 1977 ) Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision-making, and System Structure in International Crises . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Snyder Jack . ( 1991 ) Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition . Ithaca : Cornell University Press . Snyder Richard C Bruck Henry W Sapin Burton . ( 1962 ) Foreign Policy Decision Making . New York : Free Press . Snyder Richard C Bruck Henry W Sapin Burton . ( 1969 ) The Decision-Making Approach to the Study of International Politics . In International Politics and Foreign Politics: A Reader in Research and Theory , edited by Rosenau James N . New York : Free Press . Stein Arthur A . ( 1990 ) Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations . New York : Free Press . Steinbruner John D . ( 1974 ) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision: New Dimensions of Political Analysis . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Stern Eric K . ( 1999 ) Crisis Decisionmaking: A Cognitive Institutional Approach . Stockholm : CRISMART/The Swedish National Defence College . Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . ( 1997 ) Understanding Small Group Decisions in Foreign Policy: Process Diagnosis . In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making , edited by Hart Paul 't Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . ( 2002 ) Crisis Management Europe: An Integrated Regional Research and Training Program . International Studies Perspectives 3 : 71 – 88 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Stern Eric K Verbeek Bertjan . ( 1998 ) Whither the Study of Governmental Politics in Foreign Policymaking? A Symposium . Mershon International Studies Review 42 : 205 – 255 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Stern Eric Sundelius Bengt Nohrstedt Daniel Hansen Dan Newlove Lindy Hart Paul 't . ( 2002 ) Crisis Management in Transitional Democracies: The Baltic Experience . Government and Opposition 37 : 524 – 550 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Stevenson Richard W . ( 2003 ) Antiwar Protests Fail to Sway Bush on Plans for Iraq . New York Times February 19: A1 . Stewart Philip D Hermann Margaret G Hermann Charles F . ( 1989 ) Modeling the 1973 Decision to Support Egypt . American Political Science Review 83 : 35 – 59 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Strobel Warren P . ( 1997 ) Late-Breaking Foreign Policy: The News Media's Influence on Peace Operations . Washington, DC : United States Institute of Peace Press . Sylvan Donald A Voss James , eds. ( 1998 ) Problem Representation in Foreign Policy Decision Making . New York : Cambridge University Press . Sylvan Donald A Ostrom Thomas M Gannon Katherine . ( 1994 ) Case-Based, Model-Based, and Explanation-Based Styles of Reasoning in Foreign Policy . International Studies Quarterly 38 : 61 – 90 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Tajfel Henri . ( 1981 ) Human Groups and Social Categories: Studies in Social Psychology . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Tetlock Philip E . ( 1979 ) Identifying Victims of Groupthink from Public Statements of Decision Makers . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 : 1314 – 1324 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Tetlock Philip E . ( 1981 ) Personality and Isolationism: Content Analysis of Senatorial Speeches . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 41 : 737 – 743 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Tetlock Philip E . ( 1983 ) Cognitive Style and Political Ideology . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45 : 118 – 126 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS 't Hart Paul . ( 1993 ) Symbols, Rituals, and Power: The Lost Dimensions of Crisis Management . Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 1 : 36 – 50 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS 't Hart Paul . ( 1994 ) Groupthink in Government: A Study of Small Groups and Policy Failure . Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press . 't Hart Paul Preston Thomas . ( 1999 ) Understanding and Evaluating Bureaucratic Politics: The Nexus Between Political Leaders and Advisory Systems . Political Psychology 20 : 49 – 98 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS 't Hart Paul Stern Eric Sundelius Bengt . ( 1997 ) Foreign Policymaking at the Top: Political Group Dynamics . In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making , edited by 't Hart Paul Stern Eric K Sundelius Bengt . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press . Turner John C . ( 1987 ) Rediscovering the Social Group: A Self-Categorization Theory . New York : Basil Blackwell . Valenta Jiri . ( 1979 ) The Bureaucratic Politics Paradigm and the Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia . Political Science Quarterly 94 : 55 – 76 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Vandenbroucke Lucien . ( 1984 ) The Anatomy of a Failure: The Decision to Land at the Bay of Pigs . Political Science Quarterly 99 : 471 – 491 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Varney Glenn H . ( 1991 ) Helping a Team Find All the Answers . Training and Development Journal 45 : 15 – 18 . Vasquez John . ( 1998 ) The Power of Power Politics: From Classical Realism to Neo-traditionalism . New York : Cambridge University Press . Vertzberger Yaacov . ( 1984 ) Bureaucratic-Organizational Politics and Information Processing in a Developing State . International Studies Quarterly 28 : 69 – 85 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Vertzberger Yaacov . ( 1990 ) The World in Their Minds: Information Processing, Cognition, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking . Stanford : Stanford University Press . Vertzberger Yaacov . ( 1998 ) Risk Taking and Decisionmaking: Foreign Military Intervention Decisions . Stanford : Stanford University Press . Waever Ole . ( 1996 ) The Rise and Fall of the Inter-Paradigm Debate . In International Theory: Positivism and Beyond , edited by Smith Steve Booth Ken Zalewski Marysia . New York : Cambridge University Press . Wagner R. Harrison . ( 1974 ) Dissolving the State: Three Recent Perspectives on International Relations . International Organization 28 : 435 – 466 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Walker Stephen G . ( 1977 ) The Interface Between Beliefs and Behavior: Henry Kissinger's Operational Code and the Vietnam War . Journal of Conflict Resolution 21 : 129 – 168 . Walker Stephen G . ( 1983 ) The Motivational Foundations of Political Belief Systems: A Re-Analysis of the Operational Code Construct . International Studies Quarterly 27 : 129 – 201 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Walker Stephen G , ed. ( 1987 ) Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis . Durham : Duke University Press . Walker Stephen G . ( 1992 ) Symbolic Interactionism and International Politics: Role Theory's Contribution to International Organization . In Contending Dramas: A Cognitive Approach to International Organizations , edited by Cottam Martha L Shi Zhiyu . New York : Praeger . Walker Stephen G . ( 2003 ) Role Identities and the Operational Codes of Political Leaders . In Advances in Political Psychology , Vol. 1 , edited by Hermann Margaret G . London : Elsevier . Walker Stephen Schafer Mark Young Michael . ( 1998 ) Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis . International Studies Quarterly 42 : 175 – 192 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Walker Stephen Schafer Mark Young Michael . ( 1999 ) Presidential Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Conflicts in the Post-Cold War World . Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 : 610 – 625 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Wallace Helen Wallace William , eds. ( 2000 ) Policy Making in the European Union . 4th edition . New York : Oxford University Press . Waltz Kenneth . ( 1979 ) The Theory of International Politics . Reading, MA : Addison-Wesley . Weintraub Walter . ( 1986 ) Personality Profiles of American Presidents as Revealed in Their Public Statements: The Presidential News Conferences of Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan . Political Psychology 7 : 285 – 295 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Welch David . ( 1992 ) The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect and Prospect . International Security 17 : 112 – 146 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Welch David . ( 1998 ) A Positive Science of Bureaucratic Politics? Mershon International Studies Review 42 : 210 – 216 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Weldes Jutta . ( 1999 ) Constructing National Interests: The United States and the Cuban Missile Crisis . Minneapolis : University of Minnesota Press . Wendt Alexander . ( 1992 ) Anarchy Is What States Make of It: Social Construction of Power Politics . International Organization 46 : 391 – 425 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Wendt Alexander . ( 1999 ) Social Theory of International Politics . New York : Cambridge University Press . Wergeni Cecilia . ( 2001 ) The UNHCR and the Kosovo Crisis . Stockholm : CRISMART/Swedish National Defence College . White Brian . ( 1999 ) The European Challenge to Foreign Policy Analysis . European Journal of International Relations 5 : 37 – 66 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS White Brian . ( 2001 ) Understanding European Foreign Policy . New York : Palgrave . White Ralph K . ( 1968 ) Nobody Wanted War: Misperception in Vietnam and Other Wars . Garden City, NY : Doubleday . Wilkenfeld Jonathan Brecher Michael Moser Sheila . ( 1988 ) Crises in the Twentieth Century, Vol. 2, Handbook of Foreign Policy Crises . Oxford : Pergamon . Williams Phil . ( 1976 ) Crisis Management . New York : Wiley . Winter David G . ( 1987 ) Leader Appeal, Leader Performance, and the Motive Profiles of Leaders and Followers: A Study of American Presidents and Elections . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52 : 196 – 202 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Winter David G . ( 1993 ) Personality and Leadership in the Gulf War . In The Political Psychology of the Gulf War , edited by Renshon Stanley A . Pittsburgh : University of Pittsburgh Press . Winter David G Stewart Abigail J . ( 1977 ) Content Analysis as a Method of Studying Political Leaders . In A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders , edited by Hermann Margaret G . New York : Free Press . Wish Naomi . ( 1980 ) Foreign Policy Makers and Their National Role Conceptions . International Studies Quarterly 24 : 532 – 554 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Young Michael D . ( 2000 ) Automating Assessment at a Distance . The Political Psychologist 5 : 17 – 23 . Young Michael D . ( 2001 ) Building WorldViews with Profiler+ . In Progress in Communication Sciences, Vol. 17, Applications of Computer Content Analysis , edited by West Mark D . New York : Ablex . Young Michael D Schafer Mark . ( 1998 ) Is There Method in Our Madness? Ways of Assessing Cognition in International Relations . Mershon International Studies Review 42 : 63 – 96 . Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Zakaria Fareed . ( 2003 ) The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad . New York : Norton . Zilberman Alina . ( 2002 ) Presidents' Public Opinion Beliefs and Industrialization of Presidential Polling in Russia. Paper presented at Power and Power Relations in East European Politics and Societies Conference, Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, November 8–10. © 2003 International Studies Review
TI - Foreign Policymaking and Group Dynamics: Where We've Been and Where We're Going
JO - International Studies Review
DO - 10.1111/1521-9488.5020015
DA - 2003-10-28
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/oxford-university-press/foreign-policymaking-and-group-dynamics-where-we-ve-been-and-where-we-1KCGtMz7E2
SP - 1
EP - 202
VL - Advance Article
IS - 2
DP - DeepDyve
ER -