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Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences

Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences Background: Forecasting is the process of predicting future behavior. In reviewing databases, no predicted value associated with international collaboration publications in Iran was found. Thus, the present study aimed at forecasting Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences. Methods: The number of Iran’s articles and international collaborative articles in medical sciences written over 56 years was extracted from SCOPUS. Data were extracted from 1960 up to 2016. The time series method was used for forecasting using the Minitab software Version 17. Results: There was no increase in the number of medical articles from Iran from 1960 to 2001. However, the data showed incremental growth between 2001 and 2016. This was similar to Iran’s medical sciences international collaboration articles. In 2016, the percentage of Iran’s international collaboration articles was 15.2, which is expected to reach 19.9 in 2025. Conclusion: An investigation was performed on the number of international collaboration articles in the field of medical sciences in Iran. Future trends show an incremental growth. The number of Iran’s articles can be increased with international cooperation. However, an increase or decrease in Iran’s articles without international cooperation has to be investigated. Keywords: Forecasting, International cooperation, Interrupted time series analysis, Medicine, Iran Conflicts of Interest: None declared Funding: Deputy of Education of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and Vice Chancellor for Research of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences *This work has been published under CC BY-NC-SA 1.0 license. Copyright© Iran University of Medical Sciences Cite this article as: Rezaei H, Yousefi A, Larijani B, Dehnavieh R, Rezaei N, Kazemi M, Adibi P. Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug);33:84. https://doi.org/10.34171/mjiri.33.84 Introduction Change is happening at an ever faster rate today. Thus, probable, and preferable futures (2). There are a number it is necessary for governments, businesses, organizations, of methods that futurists use, such as forecasting with time and the public to improve their understanding of change series and trend analysis (3, 4). Forecasting is the process and the future, and through this, they can positively influ- of predicting future behavior (4). In forecasting, the future ence the future (1). To assist people in choosing and creat- is predicted from the past (5). Trend analysis is a method ing their most desirable future, futurists discover possible, of future study (4). Trend analysis of research publication ______________________________ Corresponding author: Dr Peyman Adibi, adibi@med.mui.ac.ir ↑What is “already known” in this topic: The annual number of Iran’s articles and its number of Medical Education, Medical Education Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical international collaborative articles in medical sciences has Sciences, Isfahan, Iran 2. already been known. Cellular & Molecular Research Center, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran Medical Education Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran →What this article adds: Medical Ethics and History of Medicine Research Center, Tehran University of Medical In this study, the trend of number of medical sciences Sciences, Tehran, Iran Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman articles from 1960 to 2016, the number of medical sciences University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran articles, and the number of medical sciences international Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Molecular Immunology Research collaboration articles from 2017 to 2025 in Iran have been Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran forecasted. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran Integrative Functional Gastroenterology Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran Iran’s international collaborative articles activity within a period of time provides information to bases, no predicted value associated with medical sciences decision-makers and researchers. It provides a more in- international collaboration publications in Iran was found. formed understanding of development in a field and al- Iran plans to improve the internationalization of medical lows for simulation and scenario building using forecast- sciences. One component of internationalization is inter- ing methods (4). national collaborative articles. If Iran wishes to expand its International cooperation has a long history. Interna- symbol and compete with regional countries, it should tional cooperation is an important source of knowledge in increase international collaboration. Iranian medical au- outstanding science in Europe since the 1950s (6). Interna- thorities would like to know where they will stand if the tional cooperation network was initially launched by sev- current trend continues in the articles and how much the eral European countries and the United States. Currently, articles should increase. Therefore, the present study all countries are involved in international cooperation (7). aimed at forecasting Iran’s international collaborative arti- International cooperation in science has grown in recent cles in medical sciences. years (7-9). For example, studies show that the contribu- tion of South Korea, China, and Japan in writing interna- Methods tional collaborative articles has increased (7, 10, and 11). In this futures study, an explorative approach was used According to the SCIMago ranking system, the percentage for forecasting. The trend analysis method was used for of international collaborative articles in the United States, depicting the trends. A time series method was used for China, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and Iran was forecasting using Minitab software Version 17. Smoothing 17.59%, 17.59%, 50.57%, 47.79%, 26.22%, and 21.02%, method and forecasts by Holt double exponential smooth- respectively, in 2014 (12-17). ing were used. This procedure can work well when a trend Forecasting international collaboration scientific publi- is present, but it can also serve as a general smoothing cations is important, but it has not received enough atten- method (19). To minimize the sum of squared errors, we tion. One study showed that India’s number of overall fitted an ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model for Iran’s number of scientific publications has increased significantly in recent medical sciences articles and its number of medical sci- years, with 119 76 in 1995, 39 407 in 2005, and 99 771 in ences international collaboration articles. 2012. It is expected that India generate 178 796 research The number of articles and international collaborative papers by 2020 (4). In that study, it was mentioned that in articles in medical sciences written over 56 years was ex- India, the number of internationally collaborated scientific tracted from Scopus. Data were extracted from 1960 until publications was 1357 in 1995, 11 475 in 2005, and 30 2016. The subject areas included dentistry, health profes- 213 in 2012 and predicted that the number of India’s re- sion, immunology and microbiology, medicine, neurosci- search papers increase to 62 599 in the year 2020. The ence, nursing, pharmacology, toxicology and pharmaceu- role of international collaboration in Indian scientific pub- tics, biochemistry, and genetics and molecular biology. lications has shifted from a position of little importance to The document types were articles, reviews, letters, notes, that of significant importance (4). Indian publication ac- editorials, press articles, conference papers, and short sur- tivity shows a significant annual growth. The growth of veys. internationally collaborative papers is faster than the growth of overall Indian papers (4). Results Information about the article presented above applies to Iran’s number of articles and its number of international all fields. The statistics of international collaboration pub- collaboration articles in the field of medical sciences were lications in the field of medical sciences need special at- extracted from 1960 up to 2016. The number that Iran tention. In this regard, one study was conducted on 50 could reach by 2025 was also forecasted. Iran’s number of medical institutes of India and found that the growth of medical sciences articles and its number of medical sci- national research output has doubled and the growth of ences international collaboration articles from 1960 to research with international collaboration has grown 4 2016 are displayed in Table 1. times during 2003 and 2012 (18). In reviewing the data- As Table 1 demonstrates, in 2016, Iran’s number of Table 1. Iran’s number of medical sciences articles and Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles from 1960 to 2016 Year Iran’s number of medical sciences articles Iran’s number of medical Sciences international collaboration articles 2016 11621 1772 2015 11485 1677 2014 11768 1677 2013 11716 1555 2012 9891 1341 2011 8172 1163 2010 6189 939 2009 5459 854 2008 4515 752 2007 3565 597 2006 2707 421 2005 1922 352 2004 1115 257 2003 919 207 2002 605 96 http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33:84. H. Rezaei, et al. Table 1. Ctd Year Iran’s number of medical sciences articles Iran’s number of medical Sciences international collaboration articles 2001 355 60 2000 309 64 1999 269 47 1998 235 56 1997 241 40 1996 170 40 1995 122 18 1994 92 14 1993 87 20 1992 66 14 1991 54 6 1990 56 9 1989 67 5 1988 44 2 1987 41 6 1986 40 6 1985 44 5 1984 37 10 1983 53 9 1982 55 10 1981 82 13 1980 111 14 1979 186 22 1978 250 24 1977 240 24 1976 200 20 1975 175 20 1974 179 9 1973 168 16 1972 58 15 1971 45 12 1970 40 6 1969 28 6 1968 22 1 1967 31 5 1966 12 2 1965 8 2 1964 7 3 1963 2 0 1962 12 4 1961 7 2 1960 4 1 1960 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 Year Diagram 1. Times series plot of Iran’s number of medical sciences articles from 1960 to 2016 medical sciences articles was 11 621 and its number of tion articles stood at 15.2. medical sciences international collaboration articles was The trend of Iran’s number of medical sciences articles 1172. Therefore, the percentage of international collabora- from 1960 to 2016 is displayed in Diagram 1. http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33.84. Iran’s international collaborative articles As Diagram 1 displays, Iran’s number of medical sci- variance stability, and independence of residuals for 2 ences articles did not grow from 1960 to 2001. However, models. Autocorrelation diagram also shows deleted auto- the trend shows an incremental growth from 2001 to 2016. correlation in the residuals after exponential smoothing. The trend of Iran’s number of medical sciences interna- Therefore, the models are appropriate. tional collaboration articles from 1960 to 2016 is shown in Diagram 2. Discussion As Diagram 2 demonstrates, Iran’s number of medical There has been increasing interest in research collabora- sciences international collaboration articles showed no tion in recent years (20). Collaboration in science is al- growth from 1960 to 2001. However, the trend shows an ready perceived as a national or regional phenomenon incremental growth from 2001 to 2016. (21). Currently, collaboration has a wider scope between Then, forecasting was done using the available data. continents and often on a global scale (21). It is widely Forecasting for Iran’s number of medical sciences articles assumed that collaboration in research is ‘a good thing’ and its number of medical sciences international collabo- and it should be encouraged (22). Forecasting research ration articles from 2017 to 2025 are presented in Table 2. publication activity provides information to decision- As Table 2 displays, in 2025, Iran’s number of medical makers (4). If Iran wants to expand its symbol and com- sciences articles will be 14 580 and Iran’s number of med- pete with regional countries, it should increase interna- ical sciences international collaboration articles will be tional collaboration. Therefore, the present study aimed at 2905. Therefore, the percentage of international collabora- forecasting Iran’s international collaborative articles in the tion is 19.9. field of medical sciences. Estimation of smoothing parameters and goodness of fit The results of the study showed that Iran’s number of for models is demonstrated in Table 3. medical sciences articles showed no growth from 1960 to As Table 3 displays, these models are appropriate. Also, 2001, which was similar to Iran’s number of medical sci- after smoothing, the residuals diagram shows normality, 1960 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 Year Diagram 2. Times series plot of Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles from 1960 to 2016 Table 2. Iran’s number of medical sciences articles and Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles from 2017 to 2025 Year Iran’s number of medical sciences articles Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles Forecast Confidence interval Forecast Confidence interval Lower Upper Lower Upper 2017 11919.4 11113.2 12753.9 1900.48 1721.51 2088.30 2018 12237.4 10914.8 13635.6 2014.47 1771.26 2273.31 2019 12559.5 10698.6 14569.5 2131.77 1817.19 2471.45 2020 12885.8 10478.2 15542.2 2252.40 1861.50 2680.52 2021 13216.3 10257.2 16550.0 2376.34 1905.12 2899.58 2022 13551.0 10037.0 17591.4 2503.60 1948.51 3128.18 2023 13889.9 9818.4 18665.8 2634.19 1991.90 3366.09 2024 14232.9 9601.6 19772.9 2768.09 2035.43 3613.15 2025 14580.2 9386.8 20912.4 2905.31 2079.20 3869.29 Table 3. Accuracy measures and smoothing constants of models Iran’s number of medical sciences articles model Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles model Accuracy measures Smoothing constants Accuracy measures Smoothing constants α (level) γ (trend) MAPE MAD MSD α (level) γ (trend) MAPE MAD MSD 1.10271 0.47672 16.9807 1.5334 5.4784 1.10271 0.47672 16.9807 1.5334 5.4784 http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33:84. H. Rezaei, et al. ences international collaborative articles. This can be due were published in collaboration. Half of these collabora- to the fact that in this period, Iran was dealing with many tive articles were the results of collaboration between Ser- events. Iran had a monarchy from 1960 to 1979, and the bian researchers and researchers from abroad. The distri- literacy rate was very low (23). In 1979, the backwardness bution of those internationally collaborative articles indi- of the health of the country reached a point where Iran had cated that the most collaborating countries with Serbian the worst doctor–patient ratio, the highest infant and child researchers were Germany and USA during 2006 and mortality rates, and the lowest ratio of hospital beds to 2013 (33). In our study, we did not investigate which population in the Middle East (24). In 1979, the number of countries have been partners in different years with Iran, doctors in the country, both general practitioners and spe- and there is a need for more research in this regard. cialists of different disciplines was 14 000. A significant North African countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, and portion of this figure was foreign doctors (25). On the Algeria also showed an incremental trend in total publica- other hand, there was a breach of educational justice in tion articles from 1996 to 2012 (34). For the year 2000, geographical distribution and the literacy ratio between SCImago indicated up to 1156 publications for Morocco, urban and rural populations was very different (26). The 738 for Tunisia, and 486 for Algeria. In 2012, the Moroc- revolution of Iran occurred in February 1979. In April can researchers published 3282 articles, Algerians 3800, 1980, Iran’s cultural revolution occurred, which led to the and Tunisians 5170 (34). In medical sciences, the output closure of universities and the deposal of hundreds of of the 3 countries remained very stable from 1996 to 2002. teachers and thousands of dissidents, leftists, and liberal Later, Tunisian outputs increased while the Moroccan students, and as a result, many intellectuals left Iran. Uni- output stagnated or even decreased until 2006, when it versities reopened after the cultural revolution in Decem- resumed increasing slowly (34). Another study showed ber 1982. In September 1980, the war with Iraq began and that the rates of international collaboration in medical ra- ended in August 1988. After the war, the long process of diation science journals from Australia, the UK, and the reconstruction was initiated (26- 31). USA increased during 2012 and 2014 (35). However, Iran’s medical sciences articles showed a This upward trend seems to continue into the future. In trend of incremental growth from 2001 to 2016. The situa- 2016, the percentage of Iran’s international collaborative tion was the same for Iran’s number of medical sciences articles was 15.2, which will reach 19.9 in 2025. These international collaboration articles. This incremental results are consistent with the results of traditional Chi- growth can be attributed to the political, cultural, and sci- nese medicine (36). One study analyzed the literature for entific stability of the country from 2001 to 2016. None- traditional Chinese medicine articles in PubMed during theless, this issue needs to be studied more. These results 1995 to 2014 and predicted the number of the articles in could also be due to the global incremental trend of na- future. Findings revealed that in 1995, 711 articles were tional and international collaboration articles in the world published, while in 2013, the number of publications in- from 2000 to 2016, and this reason confirms the incre- creased to 3162. Based on the rising trend, it can be pre- mental trend in India, Vietnam, Serbian, Morocco, Tuni- dicted that the number of articles on traditional Chinese sia, Algeria, Australia, UK, and USA (18, 32-35). One medicine will continue growing at a high rate in the future study concerning national and international medical re- (36). Many nations participate in international collabora- search of India showed that out of 50 medical institutes, tion (37). Thus, it can be stated that international collabo- 19 had average or above average annual growth rate in ration grows in science, but little agreement exists about national research publications during 2003 and 2012. Only dynamics of growth at the discipline level. Some suggest one institute had a negative growth rate for the same peri- that disciplines differ in their collaborative tendencies od (18). Results of that study indicated that the growth of (38). medical research output has grown 2 folds during 2003 Our findings indicated that the number of articles has and 2012. In addition, 43 medical institutes have shown been increased in Iran with international cooperation. positive growth in their international collaboration during However, an increase or decrease in Iran’s articles without 2003 and 2012, and only 7 medical institutes had a nega- international cooperation has to be investigated. tive growth rate for the same period. The research output The number of articles and international collaborative of India with international collaboration has grown about articles in medical sciences was extracted from SCOPUS 4 times during 2003 and 2012 (18). In our study, we did database. However, such data may not be the same in dif- not investigate whether growth has occurred in all medical ferent databases. Therefore, it is suggested that data be universities, and this point needs to be reviewed in another extracted from the Web of Science. research. Another study showed that the scientific publications of Conclusion Vietnam increased during 1996 and 2013 (32). By the An investigation into the trends of Iran’s number of same token, articles published by Serbian researchers in- medical sciences international collaboration articles creased during 2006 and 2013. In this period, the annual showed incremental growth. The number of articles has number of published articles increased more than fivefold, been increased in Iran with international cooperation. the number of articles increased from 934 articles pub- However, the increase or decrease of Iran’s articles with- lished in 2006 to 4855 in 2013. One reason for this in- out international cooperation needs to be investigated. crease in Serbian articles was the change in the name of Serbia in 2006 (33). Two-thirds of all Serbian’s articles http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33.84. Iran’s international collaborative articles 21. Georghiou L. Global cooperation in research. Research Policy. Acknowledgements 1998; 27: 611–626. This article was extracted from a research project (num- 22. Katz JS, Martin BR. What is research collaboration? Research Pol- ber: 395564). We thank the Deputy of Education of the icy. 1997; 26: 1-18. 23. Mohamadi M. [A review of Iran's foreign policy or decision mak- Ministry of Health and Medical Education and Vice ing in the Pahlavi era dominated system]. Tehran: Dadgostar; 1998. Chancellor for Research of Isfahan University of Medical [Persian] Sciences for supporting this project. 24. Tadayon A (Translator). [Fragile Resistance: A History of Social Transformation in Iran]. Furan J (Author). Tehran: rasa; 2006. [Per- sian] Conflict of Interests 25. Moradian M. [Thirty-year workbook of the Islamic Republic of The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Iran]. Soureh. 2009;(42):27. [Persian] 26. Rafiei H. [Economic infrastructure before and after the Islamic Revolution in Iran]. Tehran: Islamic Revolution Documents Center; 2010. [Persian] References 27. Keddie NR, Richard Y. Modern Iran: roots and results of revolu- 1. Groff L, Smoker P. Introduction to Future Studies. 2003. Available tion. New haven & London: Yale University Press; 2006. from: http://www.csudh.edu/global_options/IntroFS.HTML 28. Sobhe K. Education in Revolution: Is Iran Duplicating the Chinese 2. Bell W. An overview of futures studies. In: Slaughter R (Ed). The Cultural Revolution? Comparative Education. 1982; 18(3): 271-280. knowledge base of futures studies: Foundations. Hawthorn, Victoria: 29. Momen M. An Intoroduction to Shi'i Islam, the History and Doc- DDM Media; 1996. [Cited 2016 February 24] Available from: trines of Twelver Shi'ism. New haven & London: Yale University http://www.wendellbell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/An-over Press; 1985. view- of-FS_1996.pdf 30. Gheissari A, Vali N. Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for 3. Dator J. What futures studies is, and is not. [Cited 2016 February 24] st Liberty. 1 ed. Oxford University Press; 2009. Available from: http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/futures- 31. Shahriari H. [Discourse Analysis of Iran and Iraq War]. Res Theo studies/WhatFSis1995.pdf Polit. 2015;(15):193-222. [Persian] 4. Shrivats V, Bhattacharya S. Forecasting the trend of international 32. Manh HD. Scientific publications in Vietnam as seen from Scopus scientific collaboration. Scientometrics. 2014; 101: 1941–1954. during 1996–2013. Scientometrics. 2015;105:83–95. 5. Groff L, Smoker P. Introduction to future studies. [Cited 2016 Feb- 33. Ivanovic D, Fu H, Ho Y. Publications from Serbia in the Science ruary 24] Available from: Citation Index Expanded: a bibliometric analysis. Scientometrics. http://www.itari.in/categories/futurestudies/IntroductiontoFutureStudie 2015;105:145–160. s.pdf 34. Medina F. The output of researchers in Morocco compared to some 6. Hallonsten O. Continuity and Change in the Politics of European North African countries from 1996 to 2012, and its relationship to Scientific Collaboration. JCER. 2012; 8(3): 299-318. governmental major decisions on higher education and scientific re- 7. Leydesdorff L, Wagner C, Park HW, Adams J. International Collab- search. Scientometrics. 2015; 105: 367–384. oration in Science: The Global Map and the Network. El Prof de la 35. Denham G, Allen C, Platt J. International collaboration in medical Info (2013, in press). radiation science. J Med Radiat Sci. 2016;63(2):75–80. 8. Narin F, Whitlow ES. Measurement of scientific cooperation and co- 36. Huang Y, Zhou M, Deng Q, Zhang J, Zhou P, Shang X. Biblio- authorship in EEC-related area of science. Commission of the Euro- metric analysis for the literature of traditional Chinese medicine in pean community; 1990. PubMed. Scientometrics. 2015;105:557–566. 9. Franklin MN. The community of science in Europe: Preconditions 37. Bornmann L, Wagner C, Leydesdorff L. BRICS countries and sci- for Research Effectiveness in European Community Countries. entific excellence: A bibliometric analysis of most frequently cited Gower, Brussels; 1998. papers. JASIST. 2015; 66(7): 1507-1513. 10. 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[Cited 2016 February 24] Available from: http://www.scimagojr.com/countrysearch.php?country=GB&area=0 15. SCIMago journal and country ranking. Country search. Germany. [Cited 2016 February 24] Available from: http://www.scimagojr.com/countrysearch.php?country=DE&area=0 16. SCIMago journal and country ranking. Country search. Japan. [Cit- ed 2016 February 24] Available from: http://www.scimagojr.com/countrysearch.php?country=JP&area=0 17. SCIMago journal and country ranking. Country search. Iran. [Cited 2016 February 24] Available from: http://www.scimagojr.com/countrysearch.php?country=IR&area=0 18. Kaur H, Mahajan P. National versus international growth of medi- cal research of India: a case study. Scientometrics. 2015; 105: 973–989. 19. Bowerman BL, O' Connell RT. Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach. 3rd ed. Duxbury Press; 1993. 20. Beaver D, Rosen R. Studies in scientific collaboration: Part I--The professional origins of scientific co-authorship. Scientometrics. 1978; 1: 65-84. http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33:84. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran Pubmed Central

Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences

Rezaei, Habibolah; Yousefi, Alireza; Larijani, Bagher; Dehnavieh, Reza; Rezaei, Nima; Kazemi, Maryam; Adibi, Peyman
Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran , Volume 33 – Aug 17, 2019
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Pubmed Central
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© 2019 Iran University of Medical Sciences
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10.34171/mjiri.33.84
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Abstract

Background: Forecasting is the process of predicting future behavior. In reviewing databases, no predicted value associated with international collaboration publications in Iran was found. Thus, the present study aimed at forecasting Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences. Methods: The number of Iran’s articles and international collaborative articles in medical sciences written over 56 years was extracted from SCOPUS. Data were extracted from 1960 up to 2016. The time series method was used for forecasting using the Minitab software Version 17. Results: There was no increase in the number of medical articles from Iran from 1960 to 2001. However, the data showed incremental growth between 2001 and 2016. This was similar to Iran’s medical sciences international collaboration articles. In 2016, the percentage of Iran’s international collaboration articles was 15.2, which is expected to reach 19.9 in 2025. Conclusion: An investigation was performed on the number of international collaboration articles in the field of medical sciences in Iran. Future trends show an incremental growth. The number of Iran’s articles can be increased with international cooperation. However, an increase or decrease in Iran’s articles without international cooperation has to be investigated. Keywords: Forecasting, International cooperation, Interrupted time series analysis, Medicine, Iran Conflicts of Interest: None declared Funding: Deputy of Education of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and Vice Chancellor for Research of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences *This work has been published under CC BY-NC-SA 1.0 license. Copyright© Iran University of Medical Sciences Cite this article as: Rezaei H, Yousefi A, Larijani B, Dehnavieh R, Rezaei N, Kazemi M, Adibi P. Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug);33:84. https://doi.org/10.34171/mjiri.33.84 Introduction Change is happening at an ever faster rate today. Thus, probable, and preferable futures (2). There are a number it is necessary for governments, businesses, organizations, of methods that futurists use, such as forecasting with time and the public to improve their understanding of change series and trend analysis (3, 4). Forecasting is the process and the future, and through this, they can positively influ- of predicting future behavior (4). In forecasting, the future ence the future (1). To assist people in choosing and creat- is predicted from the past (5). Trend analysis is a method ing their most desirable future, futurists discover possible, of future study (4). Trend analysis of research publication ______________________________ Corresponding author: Dr Peyman Adibi, adibi@med.mui.ac.ir ↑What is “already known” in this topic: The annual number of Iran’s articles and its number of Medical Education, Medical Education Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical international collaborative articles in medical sciences has Sciences, Isfahan, Iran 2. already been known. Cellular & Molecular Research Center, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran Medical Education Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran →What this article adds: Medical Ethics and History of Medicine Research Center, Tehran University of Medical In this study, the trend of number of medical sciences Sciences, Tehran, Iran Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman articles from 1960 to 2016, the number of medical sciences University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran articles, and the number of medical sciences international Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Molecular Immunology Research collaboration articles from 2017 to 2025 in Iran have been Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran forecasted. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran Integrative Functional Gastroenterology Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran Iran’s international collaborative articles activity within a period of time provides information to bases, no predicted value associated with medical sciences decision-makers and researchers. It provides a more in- international collaboration publications in Iran was found. formed understanding of development in a field and al- Iran plans to improve the internationalization of medical lows for simulation and scenario building using forecast- sciences. One component of internationalization is inter- ing methods (4). national collaborative articles. If Iran wishes to expand its International cooperation has a long history. Interna- symbol and compete with regional countries, it should tional cooperation is an important source of knowledge in increase international collaboration. Iranian medical au- outstanding science in Europe since the 1950s (6). Interna- thorities would like to know where they will stand if the tional cooperation network was initially launched by sev- current trend continues in the articles and how much the eral European countries and the United States. Currently, articles should increase. Therefore, the present study all countries are involved in international cooperation (7). aimed at forecasting Iran’s international collaborative arti- International cooperation in science has grown in recent cles in medical sciences. years (7-9). For example, studies show that the contribu- tion of South Korea, China, and Japan in writing interna- Methods tional collaborative articles has increased (7, 10, and 11). In this futures study, an explorative approach was used According to the SCIMago ranking system, the percentage for forecasting. The trend analysis method was used for of international collaborative articles in the United States, depicting the trends. A time series method was used for China, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and Iran was forecasting using Minitab software Version 17. Smoothing 17.59%, 17.59%, 50.57%, 47.79%, 26.22%, and 21.02%, method and forecasts by Holt double exponential smooth- respectively, in 2014 (12-17). ing were used. This procedure can work well when a trend Forecasting international collaboration scientific publi- is present, but it can also serve as a general smoothing cations is important, but it has not received enough atten- method (19). To minimize the sum of squared errors, we tion. One study showed that India’s number of overall fitted an ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model for Iran’s number of scientific publications has increased significantly in recent medical sciences articles and its number of medical sci- years, with 119 76 in 1995, 39 407 in 2005, and 99 771 in ences international collaboration articles. 2012. It is expected that India generate 178 796 research The number of articles and international collaborative papers by 2020 (4). In that study, it was mentioned that in articles in medical sciences written over 56 years was ex- India, the number of internationally collaborated scientific tracted from Scopus. Data were extracted from 1960 until publications was 1357 in 1995, 11 475 in 2005, and 30 2016. The subject areas included dentistry, health profes- 213 in 2012 and predicted that the number of India’s re- sion, immunology and microbiology, medicine, neurosci- search papers increase to 62 599 in the year 2020. The ence, nursing, pharmacology, toxicology and pharmaceu- role of international collaboration in Indian scientific pub- tics, biochemistry, and genetics and molecular biology. lications has shifted from a position of little importance to The document types were articles, reviews, letters, notes, that of significant importance (4). Indian publication ac- editorials, press articles, conference papers, and short sur- tivity shows a significant annual growth. The growth of veys. internationally collaborative papers is faster than the growth of overall Indian papers (4). Results Information about the article presented above applies to Iran’s number of articles and its number of international all fields. The statistics of international collaboration pub- collaboration articles in the field of medical sciences were lications in the field of medical sciences need special at- extracted from 1960 up to 2016. The number that Iran tention. In this regard, one study was conducted on 50 could reach by 2025 was also forecasted. Iran’s number of medical institutes of India and found that the growth of medical sciences articles and its number of medical sci- national research output has doubled and the growth of ences international collaboration articles from 1960 to research with international collaboration has grown 4 2016 are displayed in Table 1. times during 2003 and 2012 (18). In reviewing the data- As Table 1 demonstrates, in 2016, Iran’s number of Table 1. Iran’s number of medical sciences articles and Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles from 1960 to 2016 Year Iran’s number of medical sciences articles Iran’s number of medical Sciences international collaboration articles 2016 11621 1772 2015 11485 1677 2014 11768 1677 2013 11716 1555 2012 9891 1341 2011 8172 1163 2010 6189 939 2009 5459 854 2008 4515 752 2007 3565 597 2006 2707 421 2005 1922 352 2004 1115 257 2003 919 207 2002 605 96 http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33:84. H. Rezaei, et al. Table 1. Ctd Year Iran’s number of medical sciences articles Iran’s number of medical Sciences international collaboration articles 2001 355 60 2000 309 64 1999 269 47 1998 235 56 1997 241 40 1996 170 40 1995 122 18 1994 92 14 1993 87 20 1992 66 14 1991 54 6 1990 56 9 1989 67 5 1988 44 2 1987 41 6 1986 40 6 1985 44 5 1984 37 10 1983 53 9 1982 55 10 1981 82 13 1980 111 14 1979 186 22 1978 250 24 1977 240 24 1976 200 20 1975 175 20 1974 179 9 1973 168 16 1972 58 15 1971 45 12 1970 40 6 1969 28 6 1968 22 1 1967 31 5 1966 12 2 1965 8 2 1964 7 3 1963 2 0 1962 12 4 1961 7 2 1960 4 1 1960 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 Year Diagram 1. Times series plot of Iran’s number of medical sciences articles from 1960 to 2016 medical sciences articles was 11 621 and its number of tion articles stood at 15.2. medical sciences international collaboration articles was The trend of Iran’s number of medical sciences articles 1172. Therefore, the percentage of international collabora- from 1960 to 2016 is displayed in Diagram 1. http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33.84. Iran’s international collaborative articles As Diagram 1 displays, Iran’s number of medical sci- variance stability, and independence of residuals for 2 ences articles did not grow from 1960 to 2001. However, models. Autocorrelation diagram also shows deleted auto- the trend shows an incremental growth from 2001 to 2016. correlation in the residuals after exponential smoothing. The trend of Iran’s number of medical sciences interna- Therefore, the models are appropriate. tional collaboration articles from 1960 to 2016 is shown in Diagram 2. Discussion As Diagram 2 demonstrates, Iran’s number of medical There has been increasing interest in research collabora- sciences international collaboration articles showed no tion in recent years (20). Collaboration in science is al- growth from 1960 to 2001. However, the trend shows an ready perceived as a national or regional phenomenon incremental growth from 2001 to 2016. (21). Currently, collaboration has a wider scope between Then, forecasting was done using the available data. continents and often on a global scale (21). It is widely Forecasting for Iran’s number of medical sciences articles assumed that collaboration in research is ‘a good thing’ and its number of medical sciences international collabo- and it should be encouraged (22). Forecasting research ration articles from 2017 to 2025 are presented in Table 2. publication activity provides information to decision- As Table 2 displays, in 2025, Iran’s number of medical makers (4). If Iran wants to expand its symbol and com- sciences articles will be 14 580 and Iran’s number of med- pete with regional countries, it should increase interna- ical sciences international collaboration articles will be tional collaboration. Therefore, the present study aimed at 2905. Therefore, the percentage of international collabora- forecasting Iran’s international collaborative articles in the tion is 19.9. field of medical sciences. Estimation of smoothing parameters and goodness of fit The results of the study showed that Iran’s number of for models is demonstrated in Table 3. medical sciences articles showed no growth from 1960 to As Table 3 displays, these models are appropriate. Also, 2001, which was similar to Iran’s number of medical sci- after smoothing, the residuals diagram shows normality, 1960 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 Year Diagram 2. Times series plot of Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles from 1960 to 2016 Table 2. Iran’s number of medical sciences articles and Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles from 2017 to 2025 Year Iran’s number of medical sciences articles Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles Forecast Confidence interval Forecast Confidence interval Lower Upper Lower Upper 2017 11919.4 11113.2 12753.9 1900.48 1721.51 2088.30 2018 12237.4 10914.8 13635.6 2014.47 1771.26 2273.31 2019 12559.5 10698.6 14569.5 2131.77 1817.19 2471.45 2020 12885.8 10478.2 15542.2 2252.40 1861.50 2680.52 2021 13216.3 10257.2 16550.0 2376.34 1905.12 2899.58 2022 13551.0 10037.0 17591.4 2503.60 1948.51 3128.18 2023 13889.9 9818.4 18665.8 2634.19 1991.90 3366.09 2024 14232.9 9601.6 19772.9 2768.09 2035.43 3613.15 2025 14580.2 9386.8 20912.4 2905.31 2079.20 3869.29 Table 3. Accuracy measures and smoothing constants of models Iran’s number of medical sciences articles model Iran’s number of medical sciences international collaboration articles model Accuracy measures Smoothing constants Accuracy measures Smoothing constants α (level) γ (trend) MAPE MAD MSD α (level) γ (trend) MAPE MAD MSD 1.10271 0.47672 16.9807 1.5334 5.4784 1.10271 0.47672 16.9807 1.5334 5.4784 http://mjiri.iums.ac.ir Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 (17 Aug); 33:84. H. Rezaei, et al. ences international collaborative articles. This can be due were published in collaboration. Half of these collabora- to the fact that in this period, Iran was dealing with many tive articles were the results of collaboration between Ser- events. Iran had a monarchy from 1960 to 1979, and the bian researchers and researchers from abroad. The distri- literacy rate was very low (23). In 1979, the backwardness bution of those internationally collaborative articles indi- of the health of the country reached a point where Iran had cated that the most collaborating countries with Serbian the worst doctor–patient ratio, the highest infant and child researchers were Germany and USA during 2006 and mortality rates, and the lowest ratio of hospital beds to 2013 (33). In our study, we did not investigate which population in the Middle East (24). In 1979, the number of countries have been partners in different years with Iran, doctors in the country, both general practitioners and spe- and there is a need for more research in this regard. cialists of different disciplines was 14 000. A significant North African countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, and portion of this figure was foreign doctors (25). On the Algeria also showed an incremental trend in total publica- other hand, there was a breach of educational justice in tion articles from 1996 to 2012 (34). For the year 2000, geographical distribution and the literacy ratio between SCImago indicated up to 1156 publications for Morocco, urban and rural populations was very different (26). The 738 for Tunisia, and 486 for Algeria. In 2012, the Moroc- revolution of Iran occurred in February 1979. In April can researchers published 3282 articles, Algerians 3800, 1980, Iran’s cultural revolution occurred, which led to the and Tunisians 5170 (34). In medical sciences, the output closure of universities and the deposal of hundreds of of the 3 countries remained very stable from 1996 to 2002. teachers and thousands of dissidents, leftists, and liberal Later, Tunisian outputs increased while the Moroccan students, and as a result, many intellectuals left Iran. Uni- output stagnated or even decreased until 2006, when it versities reopened after the cultural revolution in Decem- resumed increasing slowly (34). Another study showed ber 1982. In September 1980, the war with Iraq began and that the rates of international collaboration in medical ra- ended in August 1988. After the war, the long process of diation science journals from Australia, the UK, and the reconstruction was initiated (26- 31). USA increased during 2012 and 2014 (35). However, Iran’s medical sciences articles showed a This upward trend seems to continue into the future. In trend of incremental growth from 2001 to 2016. The situa- 2016, the percentage of Iran’s international collaborative tion was the same for Iran’s number of medical sciences articles was 15.2, which will reach 19.9 in 2025. These international collaboration articles. This incremental results are consistent with the results of traditional Chi- growth can be attributed to the political, cultural, and sci- nese medicine (36). One study analyzed the literature for entific stability of the country from 2001 to 2016. None- traditional Chinese medicine articles in PubMed during theless, this issue needs to be studied more. These results 1995 to 2014 and predicted the number of the articles in could also be due to the global incremental trend of na- future. Findings revealed that in 1995, 711 articles were tional and international collaboration articles in the world published, while in 2013, the number of publications in- from 2000 to 2016, and this reason confirms the incre- creased to 3162. Based on the rising trend, it can be pre- mental trend in India, Vietnam, Serbian, Morocco, Tuni- dicted that the number of articles on traditional Chinese sia, Algeria, Australia, UK, and USA (18, 32-35). One medicine will continue growing at a high rate in the future study concerning national and international medical re- (36). Many nations participate in international collabora- search of India showed that out of 50 medical institutes, tion (37). Thus, it can be stated that international collabo- 19 had average or above average annual growth rate in ration grows in science, but little agreement exists about national research publications during 2003 and 2012. Only dynamics of growth at the discipline level. Some suggest one institute had a negative growth rate for the same peri- that disciplines differ in their collaborative tendencies od (18). Results of that study indicated that the growth of (38). medical research output has grown 2 folds during 2003 Our findings indicated that the number of articles has and 2012. In addition, 43 medical institutes have shown been increased in Iran with international cooperation. positive growth in their international collaboration during However, an increase or decrease in Iran’s articles without 2003 and 2012, and only 7 medical institutes had a nega- international cooperation has to be investigated. tive growth rate for the same period. The research output The number of articles and international collaborative of India with international collaboration has grown about articles in medical sciences was extracted from SCOPUS 4 times during 2003 and 2012 (18). In our study, we did database. However, such data may not be the same in dif- not investigate whether growth has occurred in all medical ferent databases. Therefore, it is suggested that data be universities, and this point needs to be reviewed in another extracted from the Web of Science. research. Another study showed that the scientific publications of Conclusion Vietnam increased during 1996 and 2013 (32). By the An investigation into the trends of Iran’s number of same token, articles published by Serbian researchers in- medical sciences international collaboration articles creased during 2006 and 2013. In this period, the annual showed incremental growth. 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Published: Aug 17, 2019

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