Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
E. Archer, W. Landman, J. Malherbe, M. Tadross, S. Pretorius (2019)
South Africa’s winter rainfall region drought: A region in transition?, 25
R. C. Blamey, C. J. C. Reason (2009)
Numerical simulation of a mesoscale convective system over the east coast of South Africa, 61A
D. P. Dee (2011)
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, 137
L. Batté, C. Ardilouze, M. Déqué (2018)
Forecasting West African heat waves at subseasonal and seasonal time scales, 146
P. Driver, C. J. C. Reason (2017)
Variability in the Botswana High and its relationships with rainfall and temperature characteristics over southern Africa, 37
AbstractThe NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF hindcasts are used to explore the deterministic subseasonal predictability of the 850-hPa circulation of a large domain over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans that is relevant to the weather and climate of the southern African region. For NCEP CFSv2, 12 years of hindcasts, starting on 1 January 1999 and initialized daily for four ensemble members up to 31 December 2010 are verified against ERA-Interim reanalysis data. For ECMWF, 20 years of hindcasts (1995–2014), initialized once a month for all the months of the year are employed in a parallel analysis to investigate the predictability of the 850-hPa circulation. The ensemble mean for 7-day moving averages is used to assess the prediction skill for all the start dates in each month of the year, with a focus on the start dates in each month that are representative of the week-3 and week-4 hindcasts. The correlation between the anomaly patterns over the study domain shows skill over persistence up into the week-3 hindcasts for some months. The spatial distribution of the correlation between the anomaly patterns show skill over persistence to notably reduce over the domain by week 3. A prominent area where prediction skill survives the longest, occur over central South America and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
Weather and Forecasting – American Meteorological Society
Published: Feb 1, 2021
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.