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Bayesian Updating of Track-Forecast Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclones

Bayesian Updating of Track-Forecast Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclones The accuracy of track forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) is well studied, but less attention has been paid to the representation of track-forecast uncertainty. Here, Bayesian updating is employed on the radius of the 70% probability circle using 72-h operational forecasts with comparisons made to the classical approach based on the empirical cumulative density (ECD). Despite an intuitive and efficient way of treating track errors, the ECD approach is statistically less informative than Bayesian updating. Built on a solid statistical foundation, Bayesian updating is shown to be a useful technique that can serve as a substitute for the classical approach in representing operational TC track-forecast uncertainty. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Weather and Forecasting American Meteorological Society

Bayesian Updating of Track-Forecast Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclones

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
0882-8156
eISSN
1520-0434
DOI
10.1175/WAF-D-15-0140.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The accuracy of track forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) is well studied, but less attention has been paid to the representation of track-forecast uncertainty. Here, Bayesian updating is employed on the radius of the 70% probability circle using 72-h operational forecasts with comparisons made to the classical approach based on the empirical cumulative density (ECD). Despite an intuitive and efficient way of treating track errors, the ECD approach is statistically less informative than Bayesian updating. Built on a solid statistical foundation, Bayesian updating is shown to be a useful technique that can serve as a substitute for the classical approach in representing operational TC track-forecast uncertainty.

Journal

Weather and Forecasting – American Meteorological Society

Published: Oct 14, 2015

References

  • A characterization of the distribution of a weighted sum of gamma variables through multiple hypergeometric functions
    Di Salvo
  • Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate
    Elsner
  • A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling
    Elsner