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A General Method of Incorporating Forecast Cost and Loss in Value Scores

A General Method of Incorporating Forecast Cost and Loss in Value Scores In this note, the author shows how to incorporate cost for correct forecasts in the skill score statistical test developed by Briggs and Ruppert and how to extend this result to another value score developed by Wilks. It is then shown that both of these methods are special cases of a more general complete value score, where the loss and costs are allowed to be completely general. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society

A General Method of Incorporating Forecast Cost and Loss in Value Scores

Briggs, William
Monthly Weather Review , Volume 133 (11) – Dec 6, 2004
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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0493
DOI
10.1175/MWR3031.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this note, the author shows how to incorporate cost for correct forecasts in the skill score statistical test developed by Briggs and Ruppert and how to extend this result to another value score developed by Wilks. It is then shown that both of these methods are special cases of a more general complete value score, where the loss and costs are allowed to be completely general.

Journal

Monthly Weather Review – American Meteorological Society

Published: Dec 6, 2004

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