Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
M. L. Flora (2019)
Object-based verification of short-term, storm-scale probabilistic mesocyclone guidance from an experimental Warn-on-Forecast System, 34
C. A. Kerr (2020)
Ensemble-based targeted observation method applied to radar radial velocity observations on idealized supercell low-level rotation forecasts: A proof of concept, 148
J. L. Anderson (2009)
Spatially and temporally varying adaptive covariance inflation for ensemble filters, 61A
C. K. Potvin (2015)
Sensitivity of idealized supercell simulations to horizontal grid spacing: Implications for Warn-on-Forecast, 143
D. J. Stensrud (2009)
Convective-scale Warn-On-Forecast System: A vision for 2020, 90
M. Xue (2006)
An OSSE framework based on the ensemble square-root Kalman filter for evaluating impact of data from radar networks on thunderstorm analysis and forecast, 23
T. A. Jones (2020)
Assimilation of GOES-16 radiances and retrievals into the Warn-on-Forecast System, 148
E. R. Mansell (2020)
Bin-emulating hail melting in three-moment bulk microphysics, 77
D. C. Dowell (2011)
Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of radar observations of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City supercell: Influences of reflectivity observations on storm-scale analyses, 139
P. L. Houtekamer (2016)
Review of the ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation, 144
C. K. Potvin (2020)
Assessing systematic impacts of PBL schemes on storm evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System, 148
Y. Ying (2019)
A multiscale alignment method for ensemble filtering with displacement errors, 147
L. Duc (2013)
Spatial–temporal fractions verification for high-resolution ensemble forecasts, 65A
D. R. Stratman (2017)
Sensitivities of 1-km forecasts of 24 May 2011 tornadic supercells to microphysics parameterizations, 145
J. Poterjoy (2022)
Regularization and tempering for a moment-matching localized particle filter
J. S. Kain (2008)
Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP, 23
E. Polak (1969)
Note sur la convergence de méthodes de directions conjuguées, 3
R. A. Sobash (2013)
The impact of covariance localization for radar data on EnKF analyses of a developing MCS: Observing system simulation experiments, 141
D. J. Stensrud (2013)
Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast, 123
I. Grooms (2021)
A hybrid particle-ensemble Kalman filter for problems with medium nonlinearity, 16
D. M. Wheatley (2015)
Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting with the NSSL experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Part I: Radar data experiments, 30
T. Nehrkorn (2015)
Correcting for position errors in variational data assimilation, 143
J. L. Anderson (2009)
The Data Assimilation Research Testbed: A community facility, 90
E. R. Mansell (2010)
Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics, 67
D. R. Stratman (2018)
Correcting storm displacement errors in ensemble using the feature alignment technique (FAT), 146
W. C. Skamarock (2008)
A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3
T. Nehrkorn (2014)
Application of feature calibration and alignment to high-resolution analysis: Examples using observations sensitive to cloud and water vapor, 142
N. M. Roberts (2008)
Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events, 136
D. C. Dowell (2009)
Additive noise for storm-scale ensemble data assimilation, 26
J. L. Anderson (2001)
An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation, 129
G. Gaspari (1999)
Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions, 125
K. Brewster (2003)
Phase-correcting data assimilation and application to storm-scale numerical weather prediction. Part I: Method description and simulation testing, 131
C. S. Schwartz (2017)
Generating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations, 145
N. Yussouf (2020)
Probabilistic high-impact rainfall forecasts from landfalling tropical cyclones using Warn-on-Forecast System, 146
T. A. Jones (2019)
Forecasting high-impact weather in landfalling tropical cyclones using a Warn-on-Forecast System, 100
G. Evensen (1994)
Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics, 99
N. Yussouf (2010)
Impact of phased-array radar observations over a short assimilation period: Observing system simulation experiments using an ensemble Kalman filter, 138
P. S. Skinner (2018)
Object-based verification of a prototype Warn-on-Forecast System, 33
AbstractStorm displacement errors can arise from a number of potential sources of error within a data assimilation (DA) and forecast system. Conversely, storm displacement errors can cause issues for storm-scale, ensemble-based systems using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), such as NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). A previous study developed a fully grid-based feature alignment technique (FAT) to mitigate these phase errors and their impacts. However, that study developed and tested the FAT for single-storm cases. This study advances that work by implementing an object-based merging and matching technique into the FAT and tests the updated FAT in more complex scenarios of multiple storms. Ensemble-based experiments are conducted with and without the FAT for each of the scenarios. The experiments’ analyses and forecasts of storm-related fields are then evaluated using subjective and objective methods. Results from these idealized multiple-storm experiments continue to reveal the potential benefits of correcting storm displacement errors. For example, running the FAT even once can mitigate the “spinup” period experienced by the no-FAT experiments. The new results also show that running the FAT prior to every DA cycling step generally leads to more skillful forecasts at the smaller scales, especially in earlier-initialized forecasts. However, repeatedly running the FAT prior to every DA step can eventually lead to deterioration in analyses and forecasts. Potential solutions to this problem include using longer cycling intervals and running the FAT prior to DA less often. Additional ways to improve the FAT along with other results are presented and discussed.Significance StatementThe purpose of this work is to explore the impact of correcting storm displacements on analyses and forecasts of storms using an ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system in an idealized framework. Storm displacement errors are a common problem in current operational and experimental storm-scale forecast systems, so understanding their impact on these systems and providing a method to help mitigate them is important. Results from this study indicate that correcting storm displacement errors with the feature alignment technique can greatly improve analyses and forecasts in multiple-storm scenarios. Future work will focus on exploring the impact of correcting storm displacement errors in a real-data, storm-scale data assimilation and forecast system.
Monthly Weather Review – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 5, 2022
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.