Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
J. Whitaker, T. Hamill (2002)
Ensemble Data Assimilation without Perturbed ObservationsMonthly Weather Review, 130
C. Schwartz, G. Romine, R. Sobash, Kathryn Fossell, M. Weisman (2019)
NCAR’s Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble ProjectBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Y. Miyamoto, Y. Kajikawa, Ryuji Yoshida, T. Yamaura, H. Yashiro, H. Tomita (2013)
Deep moist atmospheric convection in a subkilometer global simulationGeophysical Research Letters, 40
T. Warner, R. Peterson, R. Treadon (1997)
A Tutorial on Lateral Boundary Conditions as a Basic and Potentially Serious Limitation to Regional Numerical Weather PredictionBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78
(2010)
https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2018/0890, in press
C. Peralta, Z. Bouallègue, S. Theis, C. Gebhardt, M. Buchhold (2012)
Accounting for initial condition uncertainties in COSMO‐DE‐EPSJournal of Geophysical Research, 117
(2012)
Convective modes for significant severe
Adam Clark, S. Weiss, J. Kain, I. Jirak, M. Coniglio, C. Melick, C. Siewert, R. Sobash, Patrick Marsh, Andrew Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. Thomas, Yunheng Wang, K. Brewster, Jidong Gao, Xuguang Wang, Jun Du, D. Novak, Faye Barthold, Michael Bodner, J. Levit, C. Entwistle, Tara Jensen, J. Correia (2012)
An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring ExperimentBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93
(2003)
Sensitivity of precipitation forecast skill
A. Clark, I. Jirak, S. Dembek, G. Creager, F. Kong, K. Thomas, K. Knopfmeier, Burkely Gallo, C. Melick, M. Xue, K. Brewster, Youngsun Jung, A. Kennedy, Xiquan Dong, Joshua Markel, M. Gilmore, G. Romine, Kathryn Fossell, R. Sobash, J. Carley, B. Ferrier, M. Pyle, C. Alexander, S. Weiss, J. Kain, Louis Wicker, G. Thompson, R. Adams-Selin, David Imy (2018)
The Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in the 2016 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting ExperimentBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
(2005)
The NCEP stage II/IV hourly precipitation analyses: Development and applications
E. Ebert (2001)
Ability of a Poor Man's Ensemble to Predict the Probability and Distribution of PrecipitationMonthly Weather Review, 129
(2008)
Radiative forcing by long
L. Harris, Shian‐Jiann Lin, C. Tu (2016)
High-Resolution Climate Simulations Using GFDL HiRAM with a Stretched Global GridJournal of Climate, 29
(2017)
On the forecast skills
Paul Nutter, D. Stensrud, M. Xue (2004)
Effects of Coarsely Resolved and Temporally Interpolated Lateral Boundary Conditions on the Dispersion of Limited-Area Ensemble ForecastsMonthly Weather Review, 132
C. Hohenegger, C. Schär (2007)
Predictability and Error Growth Dynamics in Cloud-Resolving ModelsJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64
A. Murphy (1993)
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather ForecastingWeather and Forecasting, 8
Xiaqiong Zhou, Yuejian Zhu, D. Hou, D. Kleist (2016)
A Comparison of Perturbations from an Ensemble Transform and an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast SystemWeather and Forecasting, 31
T. Schellander-Gorgas, Yong Wang, F. Meier, F. Weidle, C. Wittmann, A. Kann (2016)
On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensembleGeoscientific Model Development, 10
M. Baldwin, J. Kain (2006)
Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event FrequencyWeather and Forecasting, 21
C. Evans, Todd Lericos (2014)
FORECASTERS' FORUM How Do Forecasters Utilize Output from a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study of a High-Impact Precipitation Event
(2018)
2018: How interpolation and resolution can affect
C. Schwartz (2014)
Reproducing the September 2013 Record-Breaking Rainfall over the Colorado Front Range with High-Resolution WRF ForecastsWeather and Forecasting, 29
C. Klasa, M. Arpagaus, Andre Walser, H. Wernli (2018)
An evaluation of the convection‐permitting ensemble COSMO‐E for three contrasting precipitation events in SwitzerlandQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144
C. Schwartz, G. Romine, M. Weisman, R. Sobash, Kathryn Fossell, Kevin Manning, S. Trier (2015)
A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter AnalysesWeather and Forecasting, 30
(2016)
2016: A comparison
(2006)
Variable resolution general circulation
C. Gebhardt, S. Theis, M. Paulat, Z. Bouallègue (2011)
Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundariesAtmospheric Research, 100
Valida - tion of mountain precipitation forecasts from the convection - permitting NCAR ensemble and operational forecast systems over the western United States
(2013)
AMadden - Julian oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud - resolving model
W. Briggs (2007)
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric SciencesJournal of the American Statistical Association, 102
Seonaid Dey, G. Leoncini, N. Roberts, R. Plant, S. Migliorini (2014)
A Spatial View of Ensemble Spread in Convection Permitting EnsemblesMonthly Weather Review, 142
C. Schwartz, J. Kain, S. Weiss, M. Xue, D. Bright, F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Levit, M. Coniglio (2009)
Next-Day Convection-Allowing WRF Model Guidance: A Second Look at 2-km versus 4-km Grid SpacingMonthly Weather Review, 137
W. Skamarock, Sang Park, J. Klemp, C. Snyder (2014)
Atmospheric Kinetic Energy Spectra from Global High-Resolution Nonhydrostatic SimulationsJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71
M. Fox-Rabinovitz, J. Côté, B. Dugas, M. Déqué, J. McGregor (2006)
Variable resolution general circulation models: Stretched‐grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP)Journal of Geophysical Research, 111
(2001)
Coupling an advanced land - surface – hydrology model with the Penn State – NCAR MM 5 modeling system . Part I : Model description and implementation
B. Woodhams, C. Birch, J. Marsham, C. Bain, N. Roberts, D. Boyd (2018)
What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?Monthly Weather Review
(2015)
2015a: A real-time convection
(2017)
Ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). Mon
N. Yussouf, D. Dowell, Louis Wicker, K. Knopfmeier, Dustan Wheatley (2015)
Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts for the 27 April 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak in AlabamaMonthly Weather Review, 143
C. Schwartz, G. Romine, Kathryn Smith, M. Weisman (2014)
Characterizing and Optimizing Precipitation Forecasts from a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Initialized by a Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman FilterWeather and Forecasting, 29
L. Harris, Shian‐Jiann Lin (2013)
A Two-Way Nested Global-Regional Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere GridMonthly Weather Review, 141
D. Kleist, K. Ide (2015)
An OSSE-Based Evaluation of Hybrid Variational–Ensemble Data Assimilation for the NCEP GFS. Part I: System Description and 3D-Hybrid ResultsMonthly Weather Review, 143
Philip Jones (1999)
First- and Second-Order Conservative Remapping Schemes for Grids in Spherical CoordinatesMonthly Weather Review, 127
B. Geerts, D. Parsons, C. Ziegler, T. Weckwerth, M. Biggerstaff, R. Clark, M. Coniglio, B. Demoz, R. Ferrare, W. Gallus, K. Haghi, J. Hanesiak, P. Klein, K. Knupp, K. Kosiba, G. McFarquhar, J. Moore, A. Nehrir, M. Parker, J. Pinto, R. Rauber, R. Schumacher, D. Turner, Qing Wang, Xuguang Wang, Zhien Wang, J. Wurman (2017)
The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field ProjectBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98
W. Skamarock, J. Klemp, M. Duda, L. Fowler, Sang Park, T. Ringler (2012)
A Multiscale Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model Using Centroidal Voronoi Tesselations and C-Grid StaggeringMonthly Weather Review, 140
H. Tomita (2008)
A Stretched Icosahedral Grid by a New Grid TransformationJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan
(2005)
The NCEP stage II/IV hourly
N. Roberts, H. Lean (2008)
Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective EventsMonthly Weather Review, 136
D. Durran, M. Gingrich (2014)
Atmospheric Predictability: Why Butterflies Are Not of Practical ImportanceJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71
C. Schwartz, J. Kain, S. Weiss, M. Xue, D. Bright, F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Levit, M. Coniglio, M. Wandishin (2010)
Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble MembershipWeather and Forecasting, 25
E. Mlawer, Steven Taubman, P. Brown, M. Iacono, S. Clough (1997)
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwaveJournal of Geophysical Research, 102
Chris Worth (1999)
Added value?Complementary therapies in nursing & midwifery, 5 1
E. Lorenz (1969)
The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motionTellus A, 21
D. Stensrud, M. Xue, Louis Wicker, K. Kelleher, Michael Foster, J. Schaefer, Russell Schneider, S. Benjamin, S. Weygandt, John Ferree, Jason Tuell (2009)
CONVECTIVE-SCALE WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM: A vision for 2020Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90
Xiaqiong Zhou, Yuejian Zhu, D. Hou, Yan Luo, Jiayi Peng, R. Wobus (2017)
Performance of the New NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System in a Parallel ExperimentWeather and Forecasting, 32
M. Wong, W. Skamarock (2016)
Spectral Characteristics of Convective-Scale Precipitation Observations and ForecastsMonthly Weather Review, 144
(2009)
Development of an improved
L. Fowler, W. Skamarock, G. Grell, S. Freitas, M. Duda (2016)
Analyzing the Grell–Freitas Convection Scheme from Hydrostatic to Nonhydrostatic Scales within a Global ModelMonthly Weather Review, 144
Jing Cheng (2015)
Storm-scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasts of 31 May 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma Tornado using Multi-function Phased Array Radar Observations
M. Mittermaier, N. Roberts (2010)
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods: Identifying Skillful Spatial Scales Using the Fractions Skill ScoreWeather and Forecasting, 25
Jordan Powers, J. Klemp, W. Skamarock, C. Davis, J. Dudhia, D. Gill, J. Coen, D. Gochis, R. Ahmadov, S. Peckham, G. Grell, J. Michalakes, S. Trahan, S. Benjamin, C. Alexander, G. Dimego, Wei Wang, C. Schwartz, G. Romine, Zhiquan Liu, C. Snyder, Fei Chen, M. Barlage, Wei Yu, M. Duda (2017)
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, System Efforts, and Future DirectionsBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98
(2008)
Lean, 2008: Scale-selective verification
Fei Chen, J. Dudhia (2001)
Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model Implementation and SensitivityMonthly Weather Review, 129
D. Heinzeller, M. Duda, H. Kunstmann (2015)
Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experimentGeoscientific Model Development, 9
D. Dee, S. Uppala, A. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. Beljaars, L. Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. Holm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. Mcnally, B. Monge-Sanz, J. Morcrette, B. Park, C. Peubey, P. Rosnay, Christina Tavolato, J. Thepaut, F. Vitart (2011)
The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation systemQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137
G. Brier (1950)
VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITYMonthly Weather Review, 78
M. Mittermaier (2019)
How interpolation and resolution can affect verification scores: A study based on the Fractions Skill ScoreMeteorologische Zeitschrift
J. Kain, S. Weiss, J. Levit, M. Baldwin, D. Bright (2006)
Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather : The SPC/NSSL spring program 2004Weather and Forecasting, 21
J. Wolff, M. Harrold, T. Fowler, J. Gotway, L. Nance, B. Brown (2014)
Beyond the Basics: Evaluating Model-Based Precipitation Forecasts Using Traditional, Spatial, and Object-Based MethodsWeather and Forecasting, 29
L. Raynaud, F. Bouttier (2017)
The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size for convective‐scale probabilistic forecastsQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143
(2013)
A long-term assessment
(2016)
andW.A.Gallus Jr., 2016: An evaluation ofQPF
C. Schwartz, R. Sobash (2017)
Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Neighborhood Approaches: A Review and RecommendationsMonthly Weather Review, 145
(1982)
A model for assessment of weather forecasts
R. Sobash, G. Romine, C. Schwartz, D. Gagne, M. Weisman (2016)
Explicit Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation from Convection-Allowing Models for Next-Day Tornado PredictionWeather and Forecasting, 31
B. Nelson, O. Prat, D. Seo, E. Habib (2016)
Assessment and Implications of NCEP Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Product IntercomparisonsWeather and Forecasting, 31
Adam Clark, J. Kain, D. Stensrud, M. Xue, F. Kong, M. Coniglio, K. Thomas, Yunheng Wang, K. Brewster, Jidong Gao, Xuguang Wang, S. Weiss, Jun Du (2011)
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Skill as a Function of Ensemble Size and Spatial Scale in a Convection-Allowing EnsembleMonthly Weather Review, 139
William Putman, M. Suárez (2011)
Cloud‐system resolving simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global atmospheric model (GEOS‐5)Geophysical Research Letters, 38
Jonathan Weyn, D. Durran (2018)
The scale dependence of initial‐condition sensitivities in simulations of convective systems over the southeastern United StatesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145
(2016)
2016: Precursors of deep moist convection
M. Satoh, H. Tomita, H. Yashiro, Y. Kajikawa, Y. Miyamoto, T. Yamaura, T. Miyakawa, M. Nakano, C. Kodama, A. Noda, T. Nasuno, Y. Yamada, Y. Fukutomi (2017)
Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computerProgress in Earth and Planetary Science, 4
Eswar Iyer, A. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong (2015)
A Comparison of 36–60-h Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing EnsemblesWeather and Forecasting, 31
C. Potvin, E. Murillo, Montgomery Flora, Dustan Wheatley (2016)
Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial Condition ResolutionJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74
E. Ebert (2009)
Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close ForecastsWeather and Forecasting, 24
M. Mittermaier, N. Roberts, S. Thompson (2013)
A long‐term assessment of precipitation forecast skill using the Fractions Skill ScoreMeteorological Applications, 20
H. Yan, W. Gallus (2016)
An Evaluation of QPF from the WRF, NAM, and GFS Models Using Multiple Verification Methods over a Small DomainWeather and Forecasting, 31
W. Gallus (2002)
Impact of Verification Grid-Box Size on Warm-Season QPF Skill MeasuresWeather and Forecasting, 17
R. Sobash, C. Schwartz, G. Romine, Kathryn Fossell, M. Weisman (2016)
Severe Weather Prediction Using Storm Surrogates from an Ensemble Forecasting SystemWeather and Forecasting, 31
Madalina Surcel, I. Zawadzki, M. Yau, M. Xue, F. Kong (2017)
More on the Scale Dependence of the Predictability of Precipitation Patterns: Extension to the 2009–13 CAPS Spring Experiment Ensemble ForecastsMonthly Weather Review, 145
J. Done, Christopher Davis, M. Weisman (2004)
The next generation of NWP: explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) modelAtmospheric Science Letters, 5
G. Grell, S. Freitas (2013)
A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modelingAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14
A. Clark, W. Gallus, M. Weisman (2010)
Neighborhood-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing NCAR WRF Model Simulations and the Operational NAMWeather and Forecasting, 25
A. Clark, W. Gallus, M. Xue, F. Kong (2010)
Growth of Spread in Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing EnsemblesWeather and Forecasting, 25
Xuguang Wang, T. Lei (2014)
GSI-Based Four-Dimensional Ensemble–Variational (4DEnsVar) Data Assimilation: Formulation and Single-Resolution Experiments with Real Data for NCEP Global Forecast SystemMonthly Weather Review, 142
Jonathan Weyn, D. Durran (2017)
The Dependence of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems on the Horizontal Scale and Amplitude of Initial Errors in Idealized SimulationsJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74
D. Durran, Jonathan Weyn (2016)
Thunderstorms Do Not Get ButterfliesBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97
F. Judt (2018)
Insights into Atmospheric Predictability through Global Convection-Permitting Model SimulationsJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75
C. Schwartz, G. Romine, R. Sobash, Kathryn Fossell, M. Weisman (2015)
NCAR’s Experimental Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction SystemWeather and Forecasting, 30
G. Thompson, P. Field, R. Rasmussen, W. Hall (2008)
Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow ParameterizationMonthly Weather Review, 136
D. Hou, Z. Toth, Yuejian Zhu (2006)
A stochastic parameterization scheme within NCEP global ensemble forecast system
(2010)
The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night ( PECAN ) field project
Fuqing Zhang, C. Snyder, R. Rotunno (2003)
Effects of Moist Convection on Mesoscale PredictabilityJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60
C. Davis, D. Ahijevych, Wei Wang, W. Skamarock (2016)
Evaluating Medium-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in Uniform- and Variable-Resolution Global ModelsMonthly Weather Review, 144
(2012)
A multiscale nonhydrostatic atmospheric
P. Clark, N. Roberts, H. Lean, S. Ballard, C. Charlton-Perez (2016)
Convection‐permitting models: a step‐change in rainfall forecastingMeteorological Applications, 23
M. Satoh, T. Matsuno, H. Tomita, H. Miura, T. Nasuno, S. Iga (2008)
Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulationsJ. Comput. Phys., 227
(2014)
A stretched grid on a sphere by new grid transformation
(2017)
The impact of horizontal res
E. Lorenz (1963)
Deterministic nonperiodic flowJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20
L. Duc, Kazuo Saito, H. Seko (2013)
Spatial-temporal fractions verification for high-resolution ensemble forecastsTellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 65
T. Hamill (1999)
Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation ForecastsWeather and Forecasting, 14
(2016)
Skamarock, 2016: Spectral characteristics
M. Iacono, J. Delamere, E. Mlawer, M. Shephard, S. Clough, W. Collins (2008)
Radiative forcing by long‐lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer modelsJournal of Geophysical Research, 113
M. Weisman, C. Davis, Wei Wang, Kevin Manning, J. Klemp (2008)
Experiences with 0–36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW ModelWeather and Forecasting, 23
(2014)
Beyond the basics: Evaluating model
A. Clark, W. Gallus, M. Xue, F. Kong (2009)
A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing EnsemblesWeather and Forecasting, 24
E. Ebert (2008)
Fuzzy verification of high‐resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed frameworkMeteorological Applications, 15
S. Mason, N. Graham (2002)
Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretationQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128
S. Hagelin, J. Son, R. Swinbank, A. Mccabe, N. Roberts, W. Tennant (2017)
The Met Office convective‐scale ensemble, MOGREPS‐UKQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143
Burkely Gallo, A. Clark, I. Jirak, J. Kain, S. Weiss, M. Coniglio, K. Knopfmeier, K. Knopfmeier, J. Correia, J. Correia, C. Melick, C. Karstens, C. Karstens, Eswar Iyer, A. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, Youngsun Jung, Feifei Shen, K. Thomas, K. Brewster, Derek Stratman, Gregory Carbin, W. Line, W. Line, R. Adams-Selin, S. Willington (2017)
Breaking New Ground in Severe Weather Prediction: The 2015 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting ExperimentWeather and Forecasting, 32
M. Nakanishi, H. Niino (2009)
Development of an Improved Turbulence Closure Model for the Atmospheric Boundary LayerJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 87
C. Accadia, Stefano Mariani, M. Casaioli, A. Lavagnini, A. Speranza (2003)
Sensitivity of Precipitation Forecast Skill Scores to Bilinear Interpolation and a Simple Nearest-Neighbor Average Method on High-Resolution Verification GridsWeather and Forecasting, 18
(2015)
andK. Ide, 2015a:AnOSSE-based evaluation of hybrid
(2015)
Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field project
(2016)
2016: Analyzing the Grell–Freitas convection
S. Theis, A. Hense, U. Damrath (2005)
Probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model: a pragmatic approachMeteorological Applications, 12
T. Gowan, W. Steenburgh, C. Schwartz (2018)
Validation of mountain precipitation forecasts from the convection-permitting NCAR ensemble and operational forecast systems over the western United StatesWeather and Forecasting, 33
J. Klemp (2011)
A Terrain-Following Coordinate with Smoothed Coordinate SurfacesMonthly Weather Review, 139
Richard Thompson, Bryan Smith, J. Grams, A. Dean, C. Broyles (2012)
Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS Tornado EnvironmentsWeather and Forecasting, 27
H. Miura, M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, A. Noda, K. Oouchi (2007)
A Madden-Julian Oscillation Event Realistically Simulated by a Global Cloud-Resolving ModelScience, 318
Y. Miyamoto, T. Yamaura, Ryuji Yoshida, H. Yashiro, H. Tomita, Y. Kajikawa (2016)
Precursors of deep moist convection in a subkilometer global simulationJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121
D. Kleist, K. Ide (2015)
An OSSE-Based Evaluation of Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation for the NCEP GFS. Part II: 4DEnVar and Hybrid VariantsMonthly Weather Review, 143
W. Skamarock, M. Duda, Soyoung Ha, Sang Park (2018)
Limited-Area Atmospheric Modeling Using an Unstructured MeshMonthly Weather Review
Soyoung Ha, C. Snyder, W. Skamarock, Jeffrey Anderson, N. Collins (2017)
Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation for the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)Monthly Weather Review, 145
A. Clark, W. Gallus, Tsing‐Chang Chen (2007)
Comparison of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle in Convection-Resolving and Non-Convection-Resolving Mesoscale ModelsMonthly Weather Review, 135
AbstractTwo sets of global, 132-h (5.5-day), 10-member ensemble forecasts were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for 35 cases in April and May 2017. One MPAS ensemble had a quasi-uniform 15-km mesh while the other employed a variable-resolution mesh with 3-km cell spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) that smoothly relaxed to 15 km over the rest of the globe. Precipitation forecasts from both MPAS ensembles were objectively verified over the central and eastern CONUS to assess the potential benefits of configuring MPAS with a 3-km mesh refinement region for medium-range forecasts. In addition, forecasts from NCEP’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast System were evaluated and served as a baseline against which to compare the experimental MPAS ensembles. The 3-km MPAS ensemble most faithfully reproduced the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation throughout the 132-h forecasts and had superior precipitation skill and reliability over the first 48 h. However, after 48 h, the three ensembles had more similar spread, reliability, and skill, and differences between probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from the 3- and 15-km MPAS ensembles were typically statistically insignificant. Nonetheless, despite fewer benefits of increased resolution for spatial placement after 48 h, 3-km ensemble members explicitly provided potentially valuable guidance regarding convective mode throughout the 132-h forecasts while the other ensembles did not. Collectively, these results suggest both strengths and limitations of medium-range high-resolution ensemble forecasts and reveal pathways for future investigations to improve understanding of high-resolution global ensembles with variable-resolution meshes.
Monthly Weather Review – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 20, 2019
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.