Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
N. Berg, A. Hall, F. Sun, S. Capps, D. Walton, B. Langenbrunner, D. Neelin (2015)
Twenty-First-Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles RegionJournal of Climate, 28
Carl Moyer (2005)
Formaldehyde columns over Europe from GOME : Constraints for summer isoprene emissions
K. Hayhoe, D. Cayan, C. Field, P. Frumhoff, E. Maurer, N. Miller, S. Moser, S. Schneider, Kimberly Cahill, E. Cleland, L. Dale, R. Drapek, R. Hanemann, L. Kalkstein, J. Lenihan, C. Lunch, R. Neilson, S. Sheridan, J. Verville (2004)
Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101 34
W. Cai, S. Borlace, M. Lengaigne, P. Rensch, M. Collins, G. Vecchi, A. Timmermann, A. Santoso, M. Mcphaden, Lixin Wu, M. England, Guojian Wang, E. Guilyardi, F. Jin (2014)
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warmingNature Climate Change, 4
(2014)
Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation 454 Variability in CMIP5 Historical Simulations for Southwestern North America
S. Wang, L. Hipps, R. Gillies, Jinho Yoon (2014)
Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprintGeophysical Research Letters, 41
New Population Projections: California to Surpass 50 Million in 2049
Sally Langford, S. Stevenson, D. Noone (2014)
Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation Variability in CMIP5 Historical Simulations for Southwestern North AmericaJournal of Climate, 27
B. Cook, T. Ault, J. Smerdon (2015)
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central PlainsScience Advances, 1
G. Peters, R. Andrew, T. Boden, J. Canadell, P. Ciais, Corinne Quéré, G. Marland, M. Raupach, C. Wilson (2013)
The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °CNature Climate Change, 3
(2014)
Anchukaitis, 2014: How unusual is the 2012-2014
D. Lorenz, E. DeWeaver (2007)
Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrationsJournal of Geophysical Research, 112
J. Sewall, L. Sloan (2004)
Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American westGeophysical Research Letters, 31
Observed and simulated wet season precipitation totals: 1900/01 -2013/14 wet season totals (unit cm) according to station-averaged observations (green line, see Fig. 1c for station locations)
N. Diffenbaugh, D. Swain, D. Touma (2015)
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in CaliforniaProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112
Eric, D., Maloney, Suzana, J., Camargo, E. Chang, B. Colle, Kerrie, L., Geil, Hu Qi, Xianan Jiang, N. Johnson, Kristopher, B., Karnauskas, B. Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, Lindsey, N., Long, A. Mariotti, Joyce, E., Meyerson, D. Neelin, Z. Pan, R. Seager, Y. Serra, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, J. Thibeault, Shang, P. Xie, Chunzai Wang, B. Wyman (2014)
North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections*Journal of Climate, 27
(2014)
Probable causes of the abnormal
D. Pierce, T. Das, D. Cayan, E. Maurer, N. Miller, Y. Bao, M. Kanamitsu, K. Yoshimura, M. Snyder, L. Sloan, G. Franco, M. Tyree (2013)
Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscalingClimate Dynamics, 40
J. Famiglietti (2014)
The global groundwater crisisNature Climate Change, 4
T. Mitchell, W. Blier (1997)
The Variability of Wintertime Precipitation in the Region of CaliforniaJournal of Climate, 10
wet season totals averaged over California in 34 GCMs
(1950)
Ocean salinities reveal strong global water 430 cycle intensification during
Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes
D. Griffin, K. Anchukaitis (2014)
How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?Geophysical Research Letters, 41
C. Chou, J. Neelin (2004)
Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional Tropical precipitationJournal of Climate, 17
R. Seager, N. Naik, Laura Vogel (2012)
Does Global Warming Cause Intensified Interannual Hydroclimate VariabilityJournal of Climate, 25
J. Yin (2005)
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climateGeophysical Research Letters, 32
New Population Projections: California to Surpass 50 406 Million in 2049
(2013)
Increases in flood
P. Duffy, R. Arritt, J. Coquard, W. Gutowski, Jingya Han, J. Iorio, Jongil Kim, L. Leung, J. Roads, E. Zeledón (2006)
Simulations of Present and Future Climates in the Western United States with Four Nested Regional Climate ModelsJournal of Climate, 19
(2013)
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Sciences Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change [Stocker
D. Cayan, E. Maurer, M. Dettinger, M. Tyree, K. Hayhoe (2008)
Climate change scenarios for the California regionClimatic Change, 87
D. Pierce, D. Cayan, T. Das, E. Maurer, N. Miller, Y. Bao, M. Kanamitsu, K. Yoshimura, M. Snyder, L. Sloan, G. Franco, M. Tyree (2013)
The Key Role of Heavy Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual Precipitation Changes in CaliforniaJournal of Climate, 26
(2012)
Matear, 2012: Ocean salinities reveal strong global water
(2012)
Probabilistic estimates of 470 future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical 471 downscaling. Climate Dynamics
(2014)
21 st Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles Region
J. Neelin, B. Langenbrunner, J. Meyerson, A. Hall, N. Berg (2013)
California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 EnsembleJournal of Climate, 26
T. Das, E. Maurer, D. Pierce, M. Dettinger, D. Cayan (2013)
Increases in Flood Magnitudes in California Under Warming ClimatesJournal of Hydrology, 501
P. Durack, S. Wijffels, R. Matear (2012)
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000Science, 336
I. Held, B. Soden (2006)
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global WarmingJournal of Climate, 19
M. Dettinger (2011)
Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes 1JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47
D. Swain, Michael Tsiang, Matz Haugen, Deepti Singh, A. Charland, B. Rajaratnam, N. Diffenbaugh (2014)
The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013-2014: Character, Context, and the Role of Climate Change, 2014
(2014)
21 st 403 Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles Region
K. Trenberth (2011)
Changes in precipitation with climate changeClimate Research, 47
(1950)
Matear, 2012: Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification
(2014)
Neelin, 2014: 21 Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles Region
Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought for California Agriculture
(2011)
Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California -a Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes
S. Polade, D. Pierce, D. Cayan, A. Gershunov, M. Dettinger (2014)
The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimesScientific Reports, 4
R. Knutti (2010)
The end of model democracy?Climatic Change, 102
D. Cayan, J. Roads (1984)
Local Relationships between United States West Coast Precipitation and Monthly Mean Circulation ParametersMonthly Weather Review, 112
Changes to mean and extreme wet season precipitation over California on interannual time scales are analyzed using twenty-first-century precipitation data from 34 global climate models. Models disagree on the sign of projected changes in mean precipitation, although in most models the change is very small compared to historical and simulated levels of interannual variability. For the 2020/21–2059/60 period, there is no projected increase in the frequency of extremely dry wet seasons in the ensemble mean. Wet extremes are found to increase to around 2 times the historical frequency, which is statistically significant at the 95% level. Stronger signals emerge in the 2060/61–2099/2100 period. Across all models, extremely dry wet seasons are roughly 1.5 to 2 times more common, and wet extremes generally triple in their historical frequency (statistically significant). Large increases in precipitation variability in most models account for the modest increases to dry extremes. Increases in the frequency of wet extremes can be ascribed to equal contributions from increased variability and increases to the mean. These increases in the frequency of interannual precipitation extremes will create severe water management problems in a region where coping with large interannual variability in precipitation is already a challenge. Evidence from models and observations is examined to understand the causes of the low precipitation associated with the 2013/14 drought in California. These lines of evidence all strongly indicate that the low 2013/14 wet season precipitation total can be very likely attributed to natural variability, in spite of the projected future changes in extremes.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Sep 4, 2014
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.