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A Note on the Relationship between Relative Precipitation Frequency and Percent of Correct Forecasts

A Note on the Relationship between Relative Precipitation Frequency and Percent of Correct Forecasts Ramage (1982) has presented evidence, based on extensive verification data for precipitation forecasts, that the percent of correct forecasts decreases approximately linearly with increasing precipitation frequency. However, only a limited range of precipitation frequency was examined in his study. Here the theoretical reltionship between these quantities is derived for the full range of precipitation frequency with use of a model that assumes the forecasts to be unbiased and the Heidke Skill Score to be independent of precipitation frequency. It is shown that for this simple model the relationship is quadratic, the percent correct dropping from 100 for a relative precipitation frequency of zero to a minimum value for a relative frequency of 0.5 and rising again to 100 for a relative frequency of 1.0. The data presented by Ramage appear to fit the quadratic relationship well, within the limited range shown in Fig. 4 of his article. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society

A Note on the Relationship between Relative Precipitation Frequency and Percent of Correct Forecasts

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Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0477
DOI
10.1175/1520-0477-64.2.148
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Ramage (1982) has presented evidence, based on extensive verification data for precipitation forecasts, that the percent of correct forecasts decreases approximately linearly with increasing precipitation frequency. However, only a limited range of precipitation frequency was examined in his study. Here the theoretical reltionship between these quantities is derived for the full range of precipitation frequency with use of a model that assumes the forecasts to be unbiased and the Heidke Skill Score to be independent of precipitation frequency. It is shown that for this simple model the relationship is quadratic, the percent correct dropping from 100 for a relative precipitation frequency of zero to a minimum value for a relative frequency of 0.5 and rising again to 100 for a relative frequency of 1.0. The data presented by Ramage appear to fit the quadratic relationship well, within the limited range shown in Fig. 4 of his article.

Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Meteorological Society

Published: Feb 1, 1983

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