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Using Momentum Analysis to Explain and Forecast the Outcome of International Negotiations

Using Momentum Analysis to Explain and Forecast the Outcome of International Negotiations Drawing on the literature of technical analysis in financial markets, this article introduces an original framework and methodology for explaining and forecasting the outcome of international negotiations based on two concepts: the relative strength negotiation index ( rsni ) and the negotiation contextual conduciveness index ( ncci ). By comparing the parties’ levels of interest in the negotiations, rsni serves as a powerful indicator of the direction and intensity of the momentum accompanying international negotiations. ncci , on the other hand, helps to explain why certain potential breakthroughs may fail to materialize. These insights are being asessed empirically in the case of climate change negotiations, first, by testing retrospectively the viability of the model to explain the outcomes of past climate meetings and, second, by forecasting the likelihood that a breakthrough will be achieved in the next rounds of climate talks. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Negotiation Brill

Using Momentum Analysis to Explain and Forecast the Outcome of International Negotiations

International Negotiation , Volume 20 (2): 319 – Apr 27, 2015

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References (34)

Publisher
Brill
Copyright
© Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands
ISSN
1382-340X
eISSN
1571-8069
DOI
10.1163/15718069-12341309
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Drawing on the literature of technical analysis in financial markets, this article introduces an original framework and methodology for explaining and forecasting the outcome of international negotiations based on two concepts: the relative strength negotiation index ( rsni ) and the negotiation contextual conduciveness index ( ncci ). By comparing the parties’ levels of interest in the negotiations, rsni serves as a powerful indicator of the direction and intensity of the momentum accompanying international negotiations. ncci , on the other hand, helps to explain why certain potential breakthroughs may fail to materialize. These insights are being asessed empirically in the case of climate change negotiations, first, by testing retrospectively the viability of the model to explain the outcomes of past climate meetings and, second, by forecasting the likelihood that a breakthrough will be achieved in the next rounds of climate talks.

Journal

International NegotiationBrill

Published: Apr 27, 2015

Keywords: momentum analysis; international negotiations; climate change

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