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The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries

The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries PurposeThe Great Leveraging was an episode of rapid credit growth and booming housing markets leading up to the global financial crisis. It is important to identify the key drivers of the Great Leveraging and, to this end, the purpose of this paper is to model the relationship between domestic credit and net foreign liabilities in the EU countries most affected by the crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe analyses show that domestic credit and net foreign liabilities were cointegrated one-to-one for Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, while there was no cointegration for Ireland. Estimation of vector error correction models (VECMs) shows that the adjustment to deviations from the cointegrating relationship took place through changes in domestic credit for Greece and Italy, while the adjustment was bidirectional for Spain and maybe also for Portugal.FindingsThese results suggest that external factors in the form of foreign capital inflows were important drivers of the pre-crisis leveraging in the southern crisis countries, although to varying degrees across the countries.Originality/valueKey novelties include the use of stock variables instead of flow variables and the estimation of VECMs for the countries individually instead of in a panel. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Economic Studies Emerald Publishing

The Great Leveraging in the European crisis countries

Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Staehr, Karsten
Journal of Economic Studies , Volume 44 (6): 16 – Nov 13, 2017
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References (44)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
0144-3585
DOI
10.1108/JES-12-2016-0268
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeThe Great Leveraging was an episode of rapid credit growth and booming housing markets leading up to the global financial crisis. It is important to identify the key drivers of the Great Leveraging and, to this end, the purpose of this paper is to model the relationship between domestic credit and net foreign liabilities in the EU countries most affected by the crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe analyses show that domestic credit and net foreign liabilities were cointegrated one-to-one for Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, while there was no cointegration for Ireland. Estimation of vector error correction models (VECMs) shows that the adjustment to deviations from the cointegrating relationship took place through changes in domestic credit for Greece and Italy, while the adjustment was bidirectional for Spain and maybe also for Portugal.FindingsThese results suggest that external factors in the form of foreign capital inflows were important drivers of the pre-crisis leveraging in the southern crisis countries, although to varying degrees across the countries.Originality/valueKey novelties include the use of stock variables instead of flow variables and the estimation of VECMs for the countries individually instead of in a panel.

Journal

Journal of Economic Studies – Emerald Publishing

Published: Nov 13, 2017

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