Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Intraday volatility forecasting from implied volatility

Intraday volatility forecasting from implied volatility Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the superiority of the implied volatility from a stochastic volatility model over the implied volatility from the Black and Scholes model on the forecasting performance of future realized volatility still holds when intraday data are analyzed. Design/methodology/approach – Two implied volatilities and a realized volatility on KOSPI200 index options are estimated every hour. The grander causality tests between an implied volatility and a realized volatility is carried out for checking the forecasting performance. A dummy variable is added to the grander causality test to examine the change of the forecasting performance when a specific environment is chosen. A trading simulation is conducted to check the economic value of the forecasting performance. Findings – Contrary to the previous studies, the implied volatility from a stochastic volatility model is not superior to that from the Black and Scholes model for the intraday volatility forecasting even if both implied volatilities are informative on one hour ahead future volatility. The forecasting performances of both implied volatilities are improved under high volatile market or low return market. Practical implications – The trading strategy using the forecasting power of an implied volatility earns positively, in particular, more positively under high volatile market or low return market. However, it looks risky to follow the trading strategy because the performance is too volatile. Between two implied volatilities, it is hardly to say that one implied volatility beats another in terms of the economic value. Originality/value – This is the first study which shows the forecasting performances of implied volatilities on the intraday future volatility. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Managerial Finance Emerald Publishing

Intraday volatility forecasting from implied volatility

Download PDF
18 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/intraday-volatility-forecasting-from-implied-volatility-7qspRNp9CI

References (54)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1743-9132
DOI
10.1108/17439131111109017
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the superiority of the implied volatility from a stochastic volatility model over the implied volatility from the Black and Scholes model on the forecasting performance of future realized volatility still holds when intraday data are analyzed. Design/methodology/approach – Two implied volatilities and a realized volatility on KOSPI200 index options are estimated every hour. The grander causality tests between an implied volatility and a realized volatility is carried out for checking the forecasting performance. A dummy variable is added to the grander causality test to examine the change of the forecasting performance when a specific environment is chosen. A trading simulation is conducted to check the economic value of the forecasting performance. Findings – Contrary to the previous studies, the implied volatility from a stochastic volatility model is not superior to that from the Black and Scholes model for the intraday volatility forecasting even if both implied volatilities are informative on one hour ahead future volatility. The forecasting performances of both implied volatilities are improved under high volatile market or low return market. Practical implications – The trading strategy using the forecasting power of an implied volatility earns positively, in particular, more positively under high volatile market or low return market. However, it looks risky to follow the trading strategy because the performance is too volatile. Between two implied volatilities, it is hardly to say that one implied volatility beats another in terms of the economic value. Originality/value – This is the first study which shows the forecasting performances of implied volatilities on the intraday future volatility.

Journal

International Journal of Managerial Finance – Emerald Publishing

Published: Feb 22, 2011

Keywords: Stocks; Financial forecasting; Financial risk; Economic fluctuations

There are no references for this article.