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Child Survival and Perinatal Infections With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

Child Survival and Perinatal Infections With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Abstract • A mathematical model was developed to assess the effect of various assumed prevalence rates of maternal human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on perinatally acquired HIV infections and child survival. The model indicates that for children younger than 5 years, countries with low baseline mortality rates will experience greater relative increases in child mortality rates and larger proportions of HIV-caused deaths in children than countries with high mortality rates. It also suggests that perinatal HIV infection could become the most common cause of deaths in children in the developed world if maternal infection rates reach 2% to 3%. Rates of 25% to 30% would be needed to produce a similar effect in the developing world. Child survival gains in the last three decades in the developed world could be quickly erased at low levels of maternal HIV infection, but gains would not be completely offset in the developing world until more than 40% of mothers became infected with HIV. When basic demographic information and the maternal HIV infection rate are known, the model permits a direct assessment of infant and child mortality caused by HIV. It can also be used to estimate the prevalence of maternal HIV infection when values for all other variables are known. (AJDC. 1991;145:1242-1247) References 1. Gwinn M, Pappaioanou M, George JR, et al. Prevalence of HIV infection in childbearing women in the United States . JAMA . 1991;265:1704-1708.Crossref 2. Davison CF, Ades AE, Hudson CN, Peckham CS. Antenatal testing for human immunodeficiency virus . Lancet . 1989;2:1442-1444.Crossref 3. Herlitz C, Brorsson B. HIV testing in 25% of Swedish population aged 16-44 . Lancet . 1989;2:386-387.Crossref 4. Hahn RA, Onorato IM, Jones TS, Dougherty J. Prevalence of HIV infection among intravenous drug users in the United States . JAMA . 1989;261:2677-2684.Crossref 5. Mann JM, Francis H, Quinn T, et al. Surveillance for AIDS in a central African city . JAMA . 1986;255:3255-3259.Crossref 6. Rwandan HIV Seroprevalence Study Group. Nationwide community-based serological survey of HIV-1 and other human retrovirus infections in a central African country . Lancet . 1989;1:941-943. 7. Blanche S, Rouzioux C, Moscato ML, et al. A prospective study of infants born to women seropositive for human immuno-deficiency virus type 1 . N Engl J Med . 1989;320:1643-1648.Crossref 8. Italian Multicentre Study. Epidemiology, clinical features, and prognostic factors of paediatric HIV infection . Lancet . 1988;2:1043-1046.Crossref 9. Ryder RW, Nsa W, Hassig SE, et al. Perinatal transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 to infants of seropositive women in Zaire . N Engl J Med . 1989;320: 1637-1642.Crossref 10. The European Collaborative Study. Mother to child transmission of HIV infection . Lancet . 1988;2:1039-1042.Crossref 11. Chin J, Sankaran G, Mann JM. Mother-to-infant transmission of HIV: an increasing global problem . In: Kessel E, Awan AK, eds. Maternal and Child Care in Developing Countries . Thun, Switzerland: OTT Publishers; 1989:299-305. 12. The State of the World's Children 1989 . Oxford, England: Oxford University Press; 1990;94-95. 13. Halsey N, Boulos R, Holt E, et al. Transmission of HIV-1 infections from mothers to infants in Haiti . JAMA . 1990;264:2089-2092.Crossref 14. The State of the World's Children 1988 . Oxford, England: Oxford University Press; 1989:64-65. 15. The European Collaborative Study. Children born to women with HIV-1 infection: maternal history and risk of transmission . Lancet . 1991;1:253-260. 16. Thomas PA, The New York City Perinatal HIV Transmission Collaborative Study Group. Early predictors and rate of perinatal HIV disease. Presented at the Fifth International Conference on AIDS; June 8, 1989; Montreal, Quebec. 17. Willoughby A, Mendez H, Goedert J, Berthaud M, Moroso G, Sunderland A. Presented at the Fifth International Conference on Aids; June 5, 1989; Montreal, Quebec. 18. Preble EA. Impact of HIV/AIDS on African Children . Soc Sci Med . 1990;31:671-680.Crossref 19. Piot P, Plummer FA, Rey MA, et al. Retrospective seroepidemiology of AIDS virus infection in Nairobi populations . J Infect Dis . 1987;155:1108-1112.Crossref 20. AIDS: a public health crisis . In: Population Reports . Baltimore, Md: The Johns Hopkins University; 1986:193-229. 21. Miotti PG, Dallabetta G, Ndovi E, Limoba G, Saah AJ, Chiphangwi J. HIV-1 and pregnant women: associated factors, prevalence, estimate of incidence and role in fetal wastage in central Africa . AIDS . 1990;4:733-736.Crossref 22. Hoff R, Berardi VP, Weiblen BJ, Mahoney-Trout L, Mitchell ML, Grady GF. Seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus among childbearing women . N Engl J Med . 1988;318:525-529.Crossref 23. Novick LF, Berns D, Stricof R, Pass K, Wethers J. HIV seroprevalence in newborns in New York state . JAMA . 1989;261:1745-1750.Crossref 24. Kilbourne BW, Buehler JW, Rogers MF. AIDS as a cause of death in children, adolescents, and young adults . Am J Public Health . 1990;80:499-500.Crossref 25. Rogers MF, Thomas PA, Starcher ET, Noa MC, Bush TJ, Jaffe HW. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in children: report of the Centers for Disease Control national surveillance, 1982 to 1985 . Pediatrics . 1987;79:1008-1014. 26. National Center for Health Statistics. Advance report of final mortality statistics, 1987 . Hyattsville, Md: National Center for Health Statistics, 1989. US Dept of Health and Human Services publication (PHS)89-1120. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Journal of Diseases of Children American Medical Association

Child Survival and Perinatal Infections With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

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References (32)

Publisher
American Medical Association
Copyright
Copyright © 1991 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved.
ISSN
0002-922X
DOI
10.1001/archpedi.1991.02160110034016
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract • A mathematical model was developed to assess the effect of various assumed prevalence rates of maternal human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on perinatally acquired HIV infections and child survival. The model indicates that for children younger than 5 years, countries with low baseline mortality rates will experience greater relative increases in child mortality rates and larger proportions of HIV-caused deaths in children than countries with high mortality rates. It also suggests that perinatal HIV infection could become the most common cause of deaths in children in the developed world if maternal infection rates reach 2% to 3%. Rates of 25% to 30% would be needed to produce a similar effect in the developing world. Child survival gains in the last three decades in the developed world could be quickly erased at low levels of maternal HIV infection, but gains would not be completely offset in the developing world until more than 40% of mothers became infected with HIV. When basic demographic information and the maternal HIV infection rate are known, the model permits a direct assessment of infant and child mortality caused by HIV. It can also be used to estimate the prevalence of maternal HIV infection when values for all other variables are known. (AJDC. 1991;145:1242-1247) References 1. Gwinn M, Pappaioanou M, George JR, et al. Prevalence of HIV infection in childbearing women in the United States . JAMA . 1991;265:1704-1708.Crossref 2. Davison CF, Ades AE, Hudson CN, Peckham CS. Antenatal testing for human immunodeficiency virus . Lancet . 1989;2:1442-1444.Crossref 3. Herlitz C, Brorsson B. HIV testing in 25% of Swedish population aged 16-44 . Lancet . 1989;2:386-387.Crossref 4. Hahn RA, Onorato IM, Jones TS, Dougherty J. Prevalence of HIV infection among intravenous drug users in the United States . JAMA . 1989;261:2677-2684.Crossref 5. Mann JM, Francis H, Quinn T, et al. Surveillance for AIDS in a central African city . JAMA . 1986;255:3255-3259.Crossref 6. Rwandan HIV Seroprevalence Study Group. Nationwide community-based serological survey of HIV-1 and other human retrovirus infections in a central African country . Lancet . 1989;1:941-943. 7. Blanche S, Rouzioux C, Moscato ML, et al. A prospective study of infants born to women seropositive for human immuno-deficiency virus type 1 . N Engl J Med . 1989;320:1643-1648.Crossref 8. Italian Multicentre Study. Epidemiology, clinical features, and prognostic factors of paediatric HIV infection . Lancet . 1988;2:1043-1046.Crossref 9. Ryder RW, Nsa W, Hassig SE, et al. Perinatal transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 to infants of seropositive women in Zaire . N Engl J Med . 1989;320: 1637-1642.Crossref 10. The European Collaborative Study. Mother to child transmission of HIV infection . Lancet . 1988;2:1039-1042.Crossref 11. Chin J, Sankaran G, Mann JM. Mother-to-infant transmission of HIV: an increasing global problem . In: Kessel E, Awan AK, eds. Maternal and Child Care in Developing Countries . Thun, Switzerland: OTT Publishers; 1989:299-305. 12. The State of the World's Children 1989 . Oxford, England: Oxford University Press; 1990;94-95. 13. Halsey N, Boulos R, Holt E, et al. Transmission of HIV-1 infections from mothers to infants in Haiti . JAMA . 1990;264:2089-2092.Crossref 14. The State of the World's Children 1988 . Oxford, England: Oxford University Press; 1989:64-65. 15. The European Collaborative Study. Children born to women with HIV-1 infection: maternal history and risk of transmission . Lancet . 1991;1:253-260. 16. Thomas PA, The New York City Perinatal HIV Transmission Collaborative Study Group. Early predictors and rate of perinatal HIV disease. Presented at the Fifth International Conference on AIDS; June 8, 1989; Montreal, Quebec. 17. Willoughby A, Mendez H, Goedert J, Berthaud M, Moroso G, Sunderland A. Presented at the Fifth International Conference on Aids; June 5, 1989; Montreal, Quebec. 18. Preble EA. Impact of HIV/AIDS on African Children . Soc Sci Med . 1990;31:671-680.Crossref 19. Piot P, Plummer FA, Rey MA, et al. Retrospective seroepidemiology of AIDS virus infection in Nairobi populations . J Infect Dis . 1987;155:1108-1112.Crossref 20. AIDS: a public health crisis . In: Population Reports . Baltimore, Md: The Johns Hopkins University; 1986:193-229. 21. Miotti PG, Dallabetta G, Ndovi E, Limoba G, Saah AJ, Chiphangwi J. HIV-1 and pregnant women: associated factors, prevalence, estimate of incidence and role in fetal wastage in central Africa . AIDS . 1990;4:733-736.Crossref 22. Hoff R, Berardi VP, Weiblen BJ, Mahoney-Trout L, Mitchell ML, Grady GF. Seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus among childbearing women . N Engl J Med . 1988;318:525-529.Crossref 23. Novick LF, Berns D, Stricof R, Pass K, Wethers J. HIV seroprevalence in newborns in New York state . JAMA . 1989;261:1745-1750.Crossref 24. Kilbourne BW, Buehler JW, Rogers MF. AIDS as a cause of death in children, adolescents, and young adults . Am J Public Health . 1990;80:499-500.Crossref 25. Rogers MF, Thomas PA, Starcher ET, Noa MC, Bush TJ, Jaffe HW. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in children: report of the Centers for Disease Control national surveillance, 1982 to 1985 . Pediatrics . 1987;79:1008-1014. 26. National Center for Health Statistics. Advance report of final mortality statistics, 1987 . Hyattsville, Md: National Center for Health Statistics, 1989. US Dept of Health and Human Services publication (PHS)89-1120.

Journal

American Journal of Diseases of ChildrenAmerican Medical Association

Published: Nov 1, 1991

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