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Risk Analysis Volume 14 Issue 5

Subject Areas: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality; ;
Publisher: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company - Wiley
ISSN: 0272-4332
SJR: 139

LitStream

Journal Article

When and How Can You Specify a Probability Distribution When You Don't Know Much?

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Barry, Timothy; Lambert, James H.

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00280.x
LitStream

Journal Article

Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability

Hoffman, F. Owen; Hammonds, Jana S.

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00281.x pmid:7800861

In quantitative uncertainty analysis, it is essential to define rigorously the endpoint or target of the assessment. Two distinctly different approaches using Monte Carlo methods are discussed: (1) the end point is a fixed but unknown value (e.g., the maximally exposed individual, the average...
LitStream

Journal Article

Assessment of Variability and Uncertainty Distributions for Practical Risk Analyses

Hattis, Dale; Burmaster, David E.

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00282.x

In recent years the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has been challenged both externally and internally to move beyond its traditional conservative single‐point treatment of various input parameters in risk assessments. In the first section, we assess when more involved distribution‐based...
LitStream

Journal Article

Selection of Probability Distributions in Characterizing Risk of Extreme Events

Lambert, James H.; Matalas, Nicholas C.; Ling, Con Way; Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00283.x

Use of probability distributions by regulatory agencies often focuses on the extreme events and scenarios that correspond to the tail of probability distributions. This paper makes the case that assessment of the tail of the distribution can and often should be performed separately from...
LitStream

Journal Article

Understanding Uncertainty

Rowe, William D.

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00284.x

There is more information we don't know than we do know for making most critical decisions involving risks. Our focus must be on understanding and effectively dealing with what we don't know. As a first step in achieving this focus, a classification of the types of uncertainties that must be...
LitStream

Journal Article

Stepping Out of Your Own Shadow: A Didactic Example of How Facing Uncertainty Can Improve Decision‐Making

Finkel, Adam M.

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00285.x

Advocates of quantitative uncertainty analysis (QUA) have invested substantial effort in explaining why uncertainty is a crucial aspect of risk and yet have devoted much less effort to explaining how QUA can improve the risk manager's performance. This paper develops a teaching example, using a...
LitStream

Journal Article

Potential Negative Impacts of Nuclear Activities on Local Economies: Rethinking the Issue

Metz, William C.

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00286.x

Surveys of public opinion about perceptions of risk associated with the nuclear fuel cycle have shown that the public professes a widespread feeling of dread, a fear of associated stigmas, and a concern about possible catastrophic nuclear accidents. Various interest groups and state governments...
LitStream

Journal Article

Comment on William C. Metz’“Potential Impacts of Nuclear Activities on Local Economics: Rethinking the Issue” 1

Erikson, Kai

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00287.x
LitStream

Journal Article

Stigma Happens: Social Problems in the Siting of Nuclear Waste Facilities

Slovic, Paul; Flynn, James; Gregory, Robin

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00288.x

The paper by Metz challenges the view that stigma associated with a nuclear waste repository might lead to significant economic losses to the host region. We have been invited to comment on the general issues raised by this paper. We find that much of the evidence presented in the paper consists...
LitStream

Journal Article

Designing Risk Communications: Completing and Correcting Mental Models of Hazardous Processes, Part I

Atman, Cynthia J.; Bostrom, Ann; Fischhoff, Baruch; Morgan, M. Granger

1994 Risk Analysis

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00289.x pmid:7800862

Many risk communications are intended to help the lay public make complex decisions about risk. To guide risk communicators with this objective, a mental models approach to the design and characterization of risk communications is proposed. Building on text comprehension and mental models...

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