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Leading indicators are produced by both the OECD and the UK Office of National Statistics as tools for predicting turning points of the business cycle. An assessment on the basis of performance at turning points is frustrated by their scarcity. It is found that the indicators generally have...
Economic forecasts are usually presented as point estimates, despite the margin of uncertainty which surrounds them. In November 1995 the National Institute began to present estimates of the probability of the government's inflation target being met and of there being a fall in GDP. This article...
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