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The skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system to predict the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Southern Hemisphere during weekly periods has been evaluated and compared to the skill of a state-of-the-art statistical model. Probabilistic...
Upper-level inverted troughs (IVs) associated with midlatitude breaking Rossby waves or tropical upper-troposphere troughs (TUTTs) have been identified as important contributors to the variability of rainfall in the North American monsoon (NAM) region. However, little attention has been given to...
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.0.1 is used in both short-range (days) and long-range (years) simulations to explore the California wintertime model wet bias. California is divided into four regions (the coast, central valley, mountains, and Southern California) for...
In recent years there has been debate about whether squall lines have an “optimal state.” It has been repeatedly demonstrated that the slope of a squall line’s convective region is related to the comparative magnitudes of the squall line’s cold pool and the base-state vertical wind shear....
High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models produce more detailed precipitation structures but the real benefit is probably the more realistic statistics gained with the higher resolution and not the information on the specific grid point. By evaluating three model pairs, each...
This observational study investigates statistical and synoptic–dynamic relationships between regime transitions, defined as a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) index change from at least a 1 standard deviation anomaly to at least a 1 standard deviation...
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