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The forecastability of a cold-air outbreak over eastern North America during January 1985 has been studied with ensemble forecasts from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 2 run at T42 horizontal resolution. The cold-air outbreak case was characterized by a pool of very cold air ( T <...
This paper presents a climatology of coherent disturbances detected during 1991–95 by a network of barometers with a diameter of about 50 km located in a very flat terrain centered on the Flatland Atmospheric Observatory in east-central Illinois. An automatic, wavelet-based adaptive filter is...
The method of model fitting, or adjoint method, is applied to a barotropic hurricane track forecast model described by DeMaria and Jones using a large sample of forecast cases. The sample includes all Atlantic tropical cyclones that reached hurricane intensity during the 1989–93 hurricane...
Three storms intercepted during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment generated a moderate-to-strong mesocyclone within the lowest several hundred meters above the ground and qualitatively appeared capable of tornadogenesis, yet did not produce a tornado. Such novel...
A rational approach is used to identify efficient schemes for data assimilation in nonlinear ocean–atmosphere models. The conditional mean, a minimum of several cost functionals, is chosen for an optimal estimate. After stating the present goals and describing some of the existing schemes, the...
The impact of differences in analysis–forecast systems on dispersion of an ensemble forecast is examined for a case of cyclogenesis. Changes in the dispersion properties between two 25-member ensemble forecasts with different cumulus parameterization schemes and different initial analyses are...
Identical twin experiments are utilized to assess and exemplify the capabilities of error subspace statistical estimation (ESSE). The experiments consists of nonlinear, primitive equation–based, idealized Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front simulations. Qualitative and quantitative...
The impact of assimilating Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) total precipitable water (TPW) on the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) operational analyses and forecasts is evaluated. Assimilation cycles were performed for the months of July 1996 and December 1996. The agreement between...
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