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This paper offers a personal perspective on the development of decision theory and related subjects during the past half century. It first reviews six milestones in the foundations of decision analysis that are associated with Frank P. Ramsey, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Leonard J....
We introduce a general framework that guides the management scientist's formulation of deterministic models of production processes. Using the framework, we reformulate the constraints of familiar linear programming-based planning models to specifically treat components of production lead time,...
Judgments about simple gambles, such as those used in utility assessment, can generate sizable and systematic bias. After Hershey and Schoemaker (Hershey, J. C., P. J. H. Schoemaker. 1985. Probability vs. certainty equivalence methods in utility measurement: Are they equivalent? Management Sci....
Consider the problem of minimizing the required number of work stations on an assembly line for a given cycle time when the processing times are independent, normally distributed random variables. The assignment of tasks to stations is subject to precedence conditions, caused by technological...
In this paper we consider an ( S − 1, S ) inventory system with Poisson demand and constant resupply times. An arriving customer facing stockout will either backorder or withdraw its order. Expressions describing steady state operating characteristics of the system and the expected total cost...
The use of the CAPM in empirical research is subject to some criticism. In light of this criticism the Stochastic Dominance criteria are offered as an alternative research method for the examination of market efficiency. The underlying assumptions of the two frameworks are discussed and the...
The models developed in this paper seek to open up the ‘black-box’ of learning. I suggest that we need to think of learning-by-doing as a process of knowledge creation on the shop-floor by specialized teams of engineers. Learning is to be viewed, therefore, as a conscious decision and not a...
This paper considers a dynamic lot-size model with make-or-buy decisions. In each period, the production level may not exceed a given capacity, but the purchase is unrestricted. The costs for production, purchase and inventory are concave. The problem is to find a minimum-cost production and...
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