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This paper presents a framework for quantifying predictability based on the behavior of imperfect forecasts. The critical quantity in this framework is not the forecast distribution, as used in many other predictability studies, but the conditional distribution of the state given the forecasts,...
Our ability to predict active and break periods of the Asian summer monsoon is intimately tied to our ability to predict the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The present study analyzes the upper limit of potential predictability of the northern summer ISO, as it is simulated by the ECHAM5...
A large dataset of aircraft cloud traverses from the Small Cumulus Microphysics Study (SCMS) was used to add to the existing knowledge of humidity halo characteristics for small cumulus clouds in a tropical environment. The findings from this investigation show a larger frequency of observed...
The authors investigate the influence of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) on their large-scale environment by lag regressing various large-scale climate variables atmospheric temperature, winds, relative vorticity, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), column water vapor, and sea...
The evolution of mountain-wave-induced momentum flux is examined through idealized numerical simulations during the passage of a time-evolving synoptic-scale flow over an isolated 3D mountain of height h . The dynamically consistent synoptic-scale flow U accelerates and decelerates with a period...
This study presents an alternative interpretation for Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns. Rather than comprising several different recurrent regimes, this study suggests that there is a continuum of teleconnection patterns. This interpretation indicates either that 1) all members of the...
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