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We evaluate predictive regressions that explicitly consider the time-variation of coefficients in a comprehensive Bayesian framework. For monthly returns of the S&P 500 index, we demonstrate statistical as well as economic evidence of out-of-sample predictability: relative to an investor using...
This paper examines the impact of financial deregulation on entrepreneurship. We assess the impact of credit card deregulation on transitions into self-employment using state-level removal of credit card interest rate ceilings following the US Supreme Court's 1978 Marquette decision as a...
This paper investigates the extent to which market risk, residual risk, and tail risk explain the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. The paper introduces a comprehensive measure of systematic risk ( SR ) for individual hedge funds by breaking up total risk into systematic and...
In this paper, we investigate whether securitization was associated with risky lending in the corporate loan market by examining the performance of individual loans held by collateralized loan obligations. We employ two different data sets that identify loan holdings for a large set of CLOs and...
Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a peak price. Conversely, bidder...
Using nonparametric techniques, we develop a methodology for estimating and testing conditional alphas and betas and long-run alphas and betas, which are the averages of conditional alphas and betas, respectively, across time. The estimators and tests can be implemented for a single asset or...
We show that political geography has a pervasive effect on the cross-section of stock returns. We collect election results over a 40-year period and use a political alignment index ( PAI ) of each state's leading politicians with the ruling (presidential) party to proxy for local firms’...
We examine financing activities of newly public firms for evidence on capital staging in the public equity market. Staging (sequential financing) can increase issuance costs but can limit costs associated with overinvestment. We find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that staging is...
This paper investigates the relation between corporate political connections and government investment. We study various forms of political influence, ranging from passive connections between firms and politicians, such as those based on politicians’ voting districts, to active forms, such as...
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