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Using the NCEP––DOE reanalysis (R-2) soil wetness and the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System, seasonal predictability of the soil moisture and near-surface temperature, and the role of land surface initial conditions are examined. Two sets of forecasts were made, one starting from climatological...
Diagnostic studies of offline, global-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulations of terrestrial water budgets and simulations of the climate of the twenty-first century using the parallel climate model (PCM) are used to estimate the time required to detect plausible changes in...
The physical mechanism of summertime precipitation over Arizona and New Mexico (AZNM) is examined using regional model experiments. Two sets of regional model simulations with different physics packages produce very different precipitation ( P ) over the Southwest including AZNM. The better...
In Part I of this study it was shown that air––sea coupling had a positive impact on some aspects of the simulation of the Madden––Julian oscillation (MJO) by a GCM. However, errors in the basic-state climate of that GCM appeared to be preventing the MJO-related convection from...
The simulation of the Madden––Julian oscillation (MJO) has become something of a benchmark test for the performance of GCMs in the Tropics over recent years. Many atmospheric GCMs have been shown to reproduce some aspects of the MJO but have had problems representing its amplitude,...
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