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The predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) is examined through analysis of an idealized, one-dimensional, stochastically forced climate model. The influence on SST predictability of including advection by a constant mean current is investigated. A new mechanism is described whereby...
El Niño warming corresponds to an eastward extension of the western Pacific warm pool; one thus naturally wonders whether an increase in the warm pool SST will result in stronger El Niños. This question, though elementary, has not drawn much attention. The observation that the two strongest El...
The North Atlantic Oscillation––Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAO––NAM) has exhibited a trend over recent decades toward high index values. It has been argued that this trend is unprecedented in the historical record and that it may be attributable to anthropogenic forcing. This study...
Trends in radiosonde-based temperatures and lower-tropospheric lapse rates are presented for the time periods 1959––97 and 1979––97, including their vertical, horizontal, and seasonal variations. A novel aspect is that estimates are made globally of the effects of artificial (instrumental...
The influence of deterministic forcing on SST predictability is investigated in a zero-dimensional, stochastic, coupled atmosphere––ocean climate model. The SST anomaly predictability time is found to be very sensitive to the properties of the deterministic forcing. Comparison of the...
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model (80 km, 38L) is used to simulate the tropical South American summer (January––March) climate for 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, and 1991 using lateral boundary conditions from the NCEP––National Center for Atmospheric Research...
The El Niño impact on Brazil's summer monsoon has not been adequately assessed through seasonal analysis because it shows significant subseasonal variations. In this study, the El Niño influence on the summer monsoon circulation, rainfall, and temperature is analyzed with monthly resolution,...
Historical changes in instrumentation and recording practices have severely compromised the temporal homogeneity of radiosonde data, a crucial issue for the determination of long-term trends. Methods developed to deal with these homogeneity problems have been applied to a near––globally...
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