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Abstract This paper considers the effect of different dimensions of the FOMC's forward guidance on ex ante investor expectations about future changes in US Treasury yields. Options and Futures data for 2- and 10-year Treasuries is used to extract State-Price Densities of investor beliefs, and the...
Abstract This paper describes a growth model with the property that human capital accumulation can account for all observed growth. The model is shown to be consistent with evidence on individual productivities as measured by census earnings data. The central hypothesis is that we learn more when...
Abstract IRBs can disallow high incentives they deem coercive. A vignette study on MTurk concerning participation in medical trials shows that a substantial minority of subjects concurs. They think high incentives cause more regret, and that more people would be better off without the opportunity...
Abstract Changes in the treatment of individuals by the criminal justice system following a policy intervention may bias estimates of the effects of the intervention on underlying criminal activity. We explore the importance of such changes in the context of the Immigration Reform and Control Act...