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This essay reassesses the process whereby between August 1914 and the end of 1917, all the most powerful countries of the day became belligerents in the First World War. It examines the three waves of decisions to intervene and offers generalizations about the process, comparing the early...
Social network analysis is used to show that underlying systemic structure made war more likely to spread in 1914 than earlier in the century. The changing network density of three diffusion processes is seen as crucial—alliances, interstate rivalries, and territorial disputes. The findings show...
The ConflictSpace framework begins with the assumption that the factors leading a war to spread are different from the factors leading to the initiation of war. I argue that the presumed analytic separation of the initiation and spread of war is misleading because leaders' expectations of how a...
Developments in East Asia strengthen the claims of “ConflictSpace.” The contrast between general war in 1914 and the limited Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895 may be explained, in large part, by the higher degree of connectivity in 1914. The difference between Japan's swift declaration of war in...
Swimming in a sea of military defeats, the Ottoman leadership, it seems, should have opted for less war, not more, in 1914. The generation at the helm of the state, however, welcomed the July Crisis not as a reprieve but as an opportunity to end the empire's international isolation. Whereas the...
After 1911, Germany felt increasingly threatened by the Triple Entente. Secret intelligence from the Russian embassy in London revealed a growing cohesion among the Triple Entente partners: Britain, Russia, and France. In particular, Berlin feared the success of Raymond Poincaré of France, first...
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