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2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0089-2
AbstractBid and offer competition is a main transaction approach in deregulated electricity markets. Locational marginal prices (LMP) resulting from bidding competition determine electricity prices at a node or in an area. The LMP exhibits important information for market participants to develop their bidding strategies. Moreover, LMP is also a vital indicator for a Security Coordinator to perform market re-dispatch for congestion management. This paper presents a method using modular feed forward neural networks (FFNN) and fuzzy inference system (FIS) for forecasting LMPs. FFNN is used to forecast the electricity prices in a short time horizon and FIS to forecast the prices of special days. FFNN system includes an autocorrelation method for selecting parameters and methods for data preprocessing and preparing historical data to train the artificial neural network (ANN). In this paper, the historical LMPs of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) market are used to test the proposed method. It is found that the proposed neuro-fuzzy method is capable of forecasting LMP values efficiently. In addition, MATLAB-based software is designed to test and use the proposed model in different markets and environments. This is an efficient tool to study and model power markets for price forecasting. It is included with a database management system, data classifier, input variable selection, FFNN and FIS configuration and report generator in custom formats.
Sadeghpour-Gildeh, Bahram; Rahimpour, Sedigheh
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0090-9
AbstractIn this paper, we consider the problem of testing a simple hypothesis about the mean of a fuzzy random variable. For this purpose, we take a distance between the sample mean and the mean in the null hypothesis as a test statistic. An asymptotic test about the fuzzy mean is obtained by using a central limit theorem. The asymptotical distribution is ω2-distribution. The ω2-distribution is only known for special cases, thus we have considered random LR-fuzzy numbers. In the fuzzy concept, in addition to the existence of several versions of the central limit theorem, there is another practical disadvantage: The limit law is, in most cases, difficult to handle. Therefore, the central limit theorem for fuzzy random variable does not seem to be a very useful tool to make inferences on the mean of fuzzy random variable. Thus we use the bootstrap technique. Finally, by means of a simulation study, we show that the bootstrap method is a powerful tool in the statistical hypothesis testing about the mean of fuzzy random variables.
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0091-8
AbstractIn this paper, general properties of traveling salesman problem has been illustrated, then a model has been introduced to minimize Make-span (time interval which all of jobs will be done) with considering sequence-dependence setup times and processing time. Furthermore, fuzzy sets and its characteristics are applied to a Hard-solvable traveling salesman problem with considering processing times. As it can be seen, traveling salesman problems are NP-hard, so solving problem in huge dimensions is uncontrollably manageable and in other side these kinds of problems in real-world are unavoidable, so a local search can prove their importance. (However this Meta-heuristic methods may not reveal exact optimal solution, but they yield a near-exact optimal solution in undeniable reduced computational time). Here, some of most famous local searches have been explained in their common and normal form, which are Genetic Algorithm (GA), Tabu Search (TS), Simulated Annealing (SA), Ant Colony System (ACO). In rest, a comprehensive comparison through these methods has been shown. This normality in methods structure could help the article to hold no-side-taken and acceptable judgments. In final, point methods analysis and parameter tuning are held.
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0092-7
AbstractIn this paper, we derive the performance measures of the truncated Erlangian service queueing system with state-dependent rate, balking and reneging with fuzzy arrival rate so for the (M/Er/1/N(α,β)), we have obtained Pn, s the steady state probabilities in the system with the unit in the service being at stage s (s=1, 2,…, r); k is the boundary state for the number of customer more than the one that the rate of service increases. We treat this queueing system for general values of r, k and N and derive the Fuzzy effective measures for the operation of the system at any time.
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0093-6
AbstractIn this paper, we define -fuzzy boundedness for linear operators and we prove that every finite dimensional -fuzzy normed space is complete.
Taghizadeh, K.; Bagherpour, M.; Mahdavi, I.
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0094-5
AbstractThis study addresses an interactive multiple fuzzy goal programming (FGP) approach to the multi-period multi-product (MPMP) production planning problem in an imprecise environment. The proposed model attempts to simultaneously minimize total production costs, rates of changes in labor levels, and maximizing machine utilization, while considering individual production routes of parts, inventory levels, labor levels, machine capacity, warehouse space, and the time value of money. Piecewise linear membership functions are utilized to represent decision maker's (DM's) overall satisfaction levels. A numerical example demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed model to the MPMP problem. Furthermore, the proposed interactive approach facilitates the DM with a systematic framework of decision making process which enables DM to modify the search direction to reach the most satisfactory results during solving process.
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0095-4
AbstractIn this ever-changing world, organizations need to outsource parts of their processes for having agile response to market's needs and varying demands. Because of temporal nature of virtual enterprises (VE's), the situation of outsourcing process in this kind of organizations is a vital situation. The main idea of this paper aims to present a decision-making framework for specific area that is appropriated for complex states. Its contribution is developing a fuzzy VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method and combining it with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This extension suitable for decision-making situations which is faced with mixture appraisement that simultaneously regarded to both “group utility” or majority and “individual regret” of the opponent. The Integrated and developed model suits to inconsistent conditions that we face to collection of criteria and sub-criteria that should satisfy some of them collectively and simultaneously and in other attainment of some individual criteria is desirable. This framework then extended to a case study with varied criteria for outsourcing process.
2011 Fuzzy Information and Engineering
doi: 10.1007/s12543-011-0096-3
AbstractEvaluating, ranking and selecting of good supplier play an important role in decreasing of buying risk and increasing of efficiency and effectiveness in value chain and competitive ability of organizations. The goal of this paper is determination and localization of criteria, ranking and selecting suppliers in Automobile Manufacturing Companies in Iran. Based on literature review, 27 criteria were selected and localized, then using factor analysis, they were decreased to 6 items including quality, delivery, technical skill, after sales services, investment and product design. Ultimately, 4 suppliers including Tavan, Borna, Saba and Niroogostaran have been assessed and ranked by fuzzy topsis technique. The results of the research state that score of Borna is better than others with coefficient of 0.52, and from this view, Tavan, Saba and Niroogostaran are in the next ranking with coefficient of 0.45, 0.41, 0.31, respectively. Finally, it concludes some remarks including discussion, summary of implications for managers about how they can use this research results for selecting the best supplier and promoting the competitive ability of their organization, and directions for their further work too.
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