Did the European unification induce economic growth? In search of scale effects and persistent changesVanhoudt, Patrick
doi: 10.1007/BF02707252pmid: N/A
Did the European Unification Induce Economic Growth? In Search of Scale Effects and Persistent Changes. — In this paper we investigate whether the European unification has had an impact on the Union’s average labor productivity growth. Based on a time-series approach we do not find a scale effect as suggested by new growth theory. However, the data do not reject the hypothesis that the EU growth experience is well described by a textbook Solow model. Panel data estimations moreover firmly reject the idea of a growth bonus associated with EU membership.
Product market competition, unemployment and income disparitiesGersbach, Hans
doi: 10.1007/BF02707253pmid: N/A
Product Market Competition, Unemployment and Income Disparities. — We discuss how promoting competition in product markets affects unemployment and wage differentials. We examine a general equilibrium model with real wage rigidities in labor markets and market power in product markets. We illustrate how more intense competition reduces unemployment. A decrease of markups would induce an increase of real wages if real wages were flexible. This enables the employment of more low-skilled people above a real reservation wage. More intensive competition, however, widens wage and income differences between low-skilled and high-skilled workers. Differences of income distributions across countries could also be caused by differences in the intensity of product market competition.
Multinationals, production efficiency, and spillover effects: The case of the U.S. auto parts industryOkamoto, Yumiko
doi: 10.1007/BF02707254pmid: N/A
Multinationals, Production Efficiency, and Spillover Effects: The Case of the U.S. Auto Parts Industry. — Since the mid-1980s many of the developing countries have attempted to attract foreign direct investment. The primary reason is access to modern technology although the true impact is still controversial. The U.S. case suggests that even in a developed country FDI can also make a favorable impact on the local industry, but possibly through different channels. FDI can increase efficiency substantially through the enhancement of competitive pressure instead of, or in addition to, technology transfer. The manner in which FDI influences the local economy seems to be very different depending on the development stage of recipient countries.
Converging on the learning curve: Theory and application to German regional dataBretschger, Lucas; Schmidt, Hansjörg
doi: 10.1007/BF02707255pmid: N/A
Converging on the Learning Curve: Theory and Application to German Regional Data. — Studies finding convergence between regions are usually based on the assumptions of decreasing returns to overall capital and ubiquitous exogenous technical progress. In contrast, we derive convergence from a model with endogenous knowledge creation and knowledge spillovers which interact with the regional formation of human capital. The model allows for conditional convergence due to interregional knowledge dissemination which is an important determinant of the regional learning curve. In empirical estimates for 327 German regions, it is found that the characteristics of the knowledge and the human capital sectors have largely the impacts on convergence which are predicted by the model.
The third leg of the stool: Financial stability as a prerequisite for EMUArnold, Ivo
doi: 10.1007/BF02707256pmid: N/A
The Third Leg of the Stool: Financial Stability, as a Prerequisite for EMU. — Concerns about fiscal and monetary stability have dominated discussions on EMU, while issues relating to financial stability have received less attention. This paper argues that monetary and fiscal stability are like two legs of a stool. A third leg, stability of the financial system, is required to keep EMU on its feet. The empirical evidence shows that in many European countries, governments still have a large hold on the domestic financial sector, both as owner and as principal debtor. The author argues that governments should leave bank ownership to the private sector, holdings of government debt to the public, and supervision to a specialized, independent European institution.
Monetary policy shocks and interest rates: Further evidence on the liquidity effectCaporale, Tony; McKiernan, Barbara
doi: 10.1007/BF02707257pmid: N/A
Monetary Policy Shocks and Interest Rates: Further Evidence on the Liquidity Effect. — This essay tests whether innovations in monetary policy are inversely linked with changes in interest rates. Using Mishkin’s efficient markets framework and the measures of policy innovations constructed by Boschen and Mills and Bemanke and Mihov, we find strong evidence that expansionary monetary policy shocks lower interest rates. We argue that the failure of most studies to find a significant liquidity effect is due to the endogeneity of the monetary aggregates which are used to measure policy shocks.
State-space estimation of rational bubbles in the Yen/Deutsche Mark exchange rateElwood, S.; Ahmed, Ehsan; Rosser, J.
doi: 10.1007/BF02707258pmid: N/A
State-Space Estimation of Rational Bubbles in the Yen/Deutsche Mark Exchange Rate. — This paper considers a series that uncovered interest parity predicts to be white noise and inspects it for evidence of stochastic rational bubbles. State-space methods are used that specify a bubble component of the series as an unobserved state. The technique’s effectiveness is demonstrated by Monte Carlo experiments. One span of the series is found in which a stochastic rational bubble specification clearly dominates the white noise specification. It coincides with a period of general financial turm-oil in the associated economies, i.e. Japan and Germany during 1989 and early 1990.
East-west intra-industry trade dynamicsFidrmuc, Jarko; Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela; Wörgötter, Andreas
doi: 10.1007/BF02707259pmid: N/A
Trade liberalization, integration and catching-up with the developed countries are often associated with an increase in intra-industry trade. We showed in the literature survey that the reduction of trade barriers is associated with the growth of intra-industry trade. We currently observe that the trade of the selected EU countries (Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the Netherlands) with the CEECs (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) follows this pattern as well. However, the increase of intra-industry trade is not uniform, but reflects different patterns of integration and progress of industrial restructuring.
Does IMF conditionality benefit lenders?Easton, Stephen; Rockerbie, Duane
doi: 10.1007/BF02707260pmid: N/A
The purpose of this paper has been to assess whether official and private lenders benefit from IMF participation in rescheduling sovereign LDC debt via the Paris Club. If IMF participation increases the expected value of any existing or newly rescheduled official or private debt contracts, then lenders benefit. The transmission process can be via the immediate liquidity the IMF provides through various loan facilities, which allows for debt service payments to be met in a timely fashion, and/or through the increased ability of the sovereign to meet future debt service payments due to the conditions attached to IMF liquidity. The results from this paper suggest that the provision of immediate IMF liquidity provides a benefit to lenders but that the attached conditions do not. These results were obtained for a large sample of 84 LDCs over the sample period 1978-1987 and may differ when specific cases are considered. IMF participation reduced the average spread over LIBOR by 155 to 179 basis points, based on a simple model relating interest spreads to default probabilities. Heavily indebted sovereign borrowers may have experienced larger reductions. The design and implementation of IMF conditions has been criticized in the literature because they confer little benefit on the sovereign borrower. Our results support the consensus view that the conditions themselves have little effect. However, our contribution results from seeing the issue from the perspective of rational lenders who expend resources to evaluate IMF conditionality programs.