Review of World Economics

Decressin, Jörg

doi: 10.1007/BF02707708pmid: 12319451

Internal Migration in West Germany and Implications for East-West Salary Convergence. — Using a simple model of gross migration, the paper shows that provided economic agents are sufficiently risk averse, migrational flows are likely to be procyclical. The econometric results confirm that flows are highly procyclical. They further indicate that changes in regional economic disparities significantly affect migrational flows. However, given the widening of regional disparities in the 1980s accompanied by a worsening in aggregate conditions, migration seems least effective in offsetting the differentiated impact of labor market shocks when it would be most useful. The paper concludes by applying the results to the issue of east-west migration and salary convergence.

FitzRoy, Felix; Funke, Michael

doi: 10.1007/BF02707709pmid: N/A

Real Wages, Investment and Employment: New Evidence from West German Sectoral Data. — Non-separable capital adjustment costs imply that investment directly affects the demand for labour and therefore justify not only the lagged dependent variable but also the presence of investment expenditures or Tobin’s valuation ratio Q in labour demand estimation. On this basis, the authors estimate a very parsimonious specification of demand for blue-collar workers in a panel of 32 West German industries. They find much larger short-run real wage employment elasticities than previous research, and robustly significant positive effects of investment or Tobin’s Q on labour demand.

Tödter, Karl-Heinz; Reimers, Hans-Eggert

doi: 10.1007/BF02707710pmid: N/A

P-Star as a Link between Money and Prices in Germany. — The equilibrium price levelP-Star is defined as money per unit of potential output at equilibrium velocity. Deviations betweenP-Star and the actual price level (price gap) serve as an indicator of future price movements. To measure equilibrium velocity and to take into account its downward trend in Germany, a long-run money demand function is integrated into theP-Star approach. According to the empirical results, the constructed measure ofP-Star provides a stable link between M3 and the price level. However, comparable evidence could not be established for Ml and M2.

Baldwin, Robert; Steagall, Jeffrey

doi: 10.1007/BF02707711pmid: N/A

An Analysis of ITC Decisions in Antidumping, Countervailing Duty and Safeguard Cases. — This paper investigates the economic factors that best explain the decisions of the International Trade Commission in administering the injury provisions of U.S. antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard laws during the 1980s. Utilizing the economic data collected by the Commission for each investigation, it attempts to ascertain through regression analysis how strictly the commissioners have been interpreting these laws in recent years in terms of the economic conditions required for finding that an industry has been injured and for establishing a casual relationship between imports and this injury.

Menzler-Hokkanen, Ingeborg; Langhammer, Rolf

doi: 10.1007/BF02707712pmid: N/A

Product and Country Substitution in Imports: An Empirical Comparison of Theoretical Concepts. — The paper focuses on the shortcomings of current unit-values based measures for estimating product and country substitution in imports. The results of the bilateral index number technique in measuring changes in the country composition or product mix of imports were found to be inadequate, which was shown in an analysis of data on the French import market for chairs. An improved technique is briefly summarized, and its applicability compared with the bilateral index number technique. The new method performed accurately and provided a reliable basis for a refined analysis of changes within import markets.

Kraft, Kornelius

doi: 10.1007/BF02707713pmid: N/A

Wage Differentials Between Skilied and Unskilled Workers. — This paper analyzes the change in the ratio of wages paid to skilled and unskilled workers and the effect of these changes on employment by means of a simultaneous-equation pooled time-series cross-section analysis. Hypotheses are derived on the basis of specific theories. The data cover 23 industries over the period 1965–90. The explanatory variables are the cyclical deviations from long-run growth as well as several collective bargaining variables. The wage differential has a strong effect on employment of the two groups under investigation. However, demand has no significant impact on the wage relation.

Gundlach, Erich

doi: 10.1007/BF02707714pmid: N/A

Accounting for the Stock of Human Capital: Selected Evidence and Potential Implications. — Given the observed distribution of output and labor across countries, most capital flows should be from rich to poor countries. As is shown for a limited sample of countries, accounting for differences in the stock of human capital substantially reduces the implicit cross-country rate of return differentials. Additionally, accounting for human capital externalities based on independent empirical evidence, turns around the predicted rate of return differentials in favor of rich countries. Hence, the world economy may converge to a rather unequal distribution of incomes as long as human capital accumulation is neglected as the key variable limiting economic development.

Hertog, René; Potjes, Jeroen; Thurik, A.

doi: 10.1007/BF02707715pmid: N/A

Retail Profit Margins in Japan and Germany. — This study compares the determinants of retail profit margins in Japan and Germany. Although several studies consider the peculiarities of the Japanese society and its economic structure, the comparison in this study is the first systematic, empirical analysis of the consequences of these characteristics for Japanese retail profit margins. For this purpose, two extensive data sets are used and a mark-up relationship is tailored to examine differences in Japanese and German retail profit margins. The empirical outcomes indicate that small firms can survive more easily in Japan than in Germany. This explains the abundance of small stores in Japan.

Peel, David; Speight, Alan

doi: 10.1007/BF02707716pmid: N/A

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.

Greenaway, David; Hine, Robert; Milner, Chris; Elliott, Robert

doi: 10.1007/BF02707717pmid: N/A

In this paper, we have set out to do two things: first to investigate the properties of the index of MIIT recently proposed by Hamilton and Kniest; second to evaluate how useful the index is as an input to relating IIT and adjustment. In investigating the former, we found that there were a number of problematic properties of the H-K index. Most notably it censors the data in a non-random way by excluding important information; it inflates the measured MIIT by using nominal rather than real data; and it is unsealed. These properties not only bias the measure upward, they make it inappropriate from the standpoint of evaluating adjustment problems. Our discussion concludes with several suggestions as to how we might identify and measure MIIT more effectively from the standpoint of evaluating the adjustment implications of trade expansion.