Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

Benth, Fred Espen; Lempa, Jukka

2023 Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

doi: 10.1002/asmb.2815

This paper is concerned with managing risk exposure to temperature using weather derivatives. We consider hedging temperature risk using so‐called HDD‐ and CDD‐index futures, which are instruments written on temperatures in specific locations over specific time periods. The temperatures are modelled as continuous‐time autoregressive (CARMA) processes and pricing of the hedging instrument is done under an equivalent pricing measure. We develop hedging strategies for locations, cutoff temperatures, and time periods different to the ones in the traded contracts, allowing for more flexibility in the hedging application. The dynamic hedging strategies are expressed explicitly by the term structure of the volatility. We also provide numerical case studies with temperatures following a CAR(3)‐process to illustrate the temporal behaviour of the hedge under different scenarios.