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doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0355pmid: N/A
Biomass dynamics in Amazonia are quantified and the value that carbon finance could deliver from slowing deforestation is assessed. Above-ground forest biomass in the Legal Amazon shrank from 90 Pg to 76 Pg between 1978 and 2004. An average decrease of 0.64 Pg (standard error 0.38 Pg) per year was estimated for primary and econdary vegetation. For an improved, spatially and temporally explicit estimation, a time series of remote-sensing results and a model of secondary forest area and age distribution was combined with a large-scale forest-growth model. The observed trend of biomass decline is continuous and defines a baseline that the avoidance of deforestation could be measured against. Based on scenario calculations, the emission reductions from slightly reduced deforestation rates could be valued in the range of €1 billion annually. Carbon finance for reducing emissions from deforestation (‘avoided deforestation’), which is being discussed as an additional mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, has the potential to alter the economic logic driving forest conversion.
POTVIN, CATHERINE; GUAY, BRUNO; PEDRONI, LUCIO
doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0386pmid: N/A
Since 2005, negotiations aiming at reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries (REDD) are ongoing in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Two breeds of proposed REDD mechanisms are examined: market- or fund-based. Using Panama as a case study, the comparative ability of these types of mechanisms is assessed for addressing developing countries' concerns. In Panama, the protection of 5,000 ha of forest land corresponds to an annual reduction in emissions of 3,320,000 tCO2e with a break-even opportunity cost of US$3,678,594. The additional costs of protection, transaction and administration would augment the overall cost by 25%. The total yearly cost of REDD for Panama would be comparable to the country's total spending for protected areas in 2005 of ∼US$3.5 million. Thus, implementing a REDD programme would double the conservation expenses of that country, underlying the crucial need to identify sufficient funding sources to sustain REDD. Our analysis suggests that none of the currently proposed mechanisms can provide the necessary incentives and flexibility to stimulate action. The proposed market-based approaches are likely to be too risky, while funds-based mechanisms lack explicit replenishment mechanisms. Alternative financial options must urgently be identified to give credibility to the ongoing efforts aimed at REDD.
KETTNER, CLAUDIA; KÖPPL, ANGELA; SCHLEICHER, STEFAN P.; THENIUS, GREGOR
doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0394pmid: N/A
Based on the verified emissions for the 2005 and 2006 trading years, the actual emissions and allowances for each installation covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) were compared. Based on data available for 24 Member States as of May 2007, this article uses a thorough data analysis for about 9,900 installations to investigate evidence on three issues: first, the stringency of the total allocation cap and allocation differences both among the Member States and a selection of emissionintensive sectors; second, the distribution of the size of installations; and third, the spread of allocation discrepancies and possible allocation biases regarding the size of installations. There is a surprisingly high spread of allocation discrepancies, which provide evidence for treating small installations differently from large ones: the inequality of distribution of the size of installations, between allocated and verified allowances, variations in the spread of the allocation discrepancies both by country and by sector reflecting the implementation of National Allocation Plans, the size of an installation and its allocation discrepancy.
SIROHI, SMITA; MICHAELOWA, AXEL
doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0309pmid: N/A
What is the potential for developing small-scale CDM projects in India to reduce enteric methane emissions from cattle and buffaloes? The issue of baseline setting for prospective CDM projects is a complex one in the Indian context. The baselines constructed on the basis of aggregate emission rates at the national level are unlikely to be precise as methane emission rates are influenced by the livestock and feed characteristics, which vary widely across regions in an agro-climatically diverse country like India. This calls for establishing a project specific baseline underpinned with regional methane emission rates. The various aspects of sustainable development that merit consideration in formulating a CDM project in the Indian dairy sector include; increasing the productivity of animals, increasing the net income of producers, decreasing the cost of milk production and the transfer of safe technologies. The projects in the sector would be able to meet the ‘additionality’ conditions of the CDM. However, there are a number of constraints in implementing the enteric methane mitigation strategies through a CDM project at the field level. The article discusses these technical, financial, socio-cultural and institutional barriers along with possible responses to these constraints.
doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0338pmid: N/A
To what extent can Kyoto units issued pre- and post-2012 be used, and thus have a market value, under a range of post-Kyoto regimes/scenarios? Although the market value of these Kyoto units can be more easily recognized in certain scenarios than in others, this article shows that most post-Kyoto regime scenarios are compatible with such recognition. This depends not only on the particular design elements of the post-Kyoto regime implemented, but also on political decisions taken by national governments. There are incentives and disincentives for national governments to recognize such value in the absence of an international climate policy regime.
OTT, HERMANN E.; STERK, WOLFGANG; WATANABE, RIE
doi: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0510pmid: N/A
What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the ‘Bali Action Plan’, are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of ‘Realpolitik’ in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non- Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large—thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.
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