foresight

Richard Whaley

2008 foresight

doi: 10.1108/14636680810918469

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a short comment on the current US innovation concerns and a recent paper by Tom Abeles. Design/methodology/approach – Extracts are given from the Business Trends Library showing the relationship of the advanced (post‐industrial) countries with the rest of the world. Insights are given into the rising importance of the multi‐national corporations. Findings – The post‐industrial countries have overwhelming advantage over the rest of the world, with very different world development roles played by both sides. The multi‐national corporations act as the organs of transfer of technology to the less developed world. Originality/value – The importance of how innovation and business development arises in the post industrials and how it is defused is shown.

Marvin Baker Schaffer

2008 foresight

doi: 10.1108/14636680810918478

Purpose – Russian dominance of the Eurasian natural gas delivery system has put the independence of the EU's foreign policy at risk. Although Europe is struggling to counteract the threat, Russia appears to be winning the game. This paper aims to recommend significant measures to reverse the trend. Design/methodology/approach – This is a discussion paper exploring the issues involved. Findings – Russia's stranglehold already has acquired 25 percent of the European market. Moreover, it is installing four new pipelines, and plans to increase its market share substantially. In response, Europe is building or planning three new pipelines. The author recommends additionally: strategic gas reserves, anti‐trust prosecution, financial and political inducements, and offering WTO membership to Russia in exchange for concessions. Practical implications – Europe can win the great natural gas pipeline game if it is played with commitment. Europe must focus on the big prize, natural gas independence. Originality/value – This original research viewpoint contains suggestions for the EU and Europe to increase their energy security.

Colin Williams

2008 foresight

doi: 10.1108/14636680810918487

Purpose – This paper aims to provide a critical overview of the diverse visions of the future of employment. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual framework is presented for understanding the common narrative structure that underpins a multitude of contrasting visions on how employment will be organized in the future. Findings – This paper shows how the diverse stories about the future of employment adopt a similar storyline, and reveals how most visions: firstly squeeze all forms of employment into one side or other of some dualism; secondly, order the two sides into a temporal and/or normative sequence in which one side is seen as universally replacing and/or more progressive than the other; and finally, represent this one‐dimensional linear trajectory by concocting some label to represent their vision, which usually involves using some ‐ism, ‐ation or post‐something‐or‐other. Practical implications – Visions of the future of employment are shown to be grounded in some binary hierarchy (e.g. from Fordism to post‐Fordism, bureaucracy to post‐bureaucracy), all of which over‐simplify lived practice. To offer a way forward that transcends these one‐dimensional and linear stories, this paper argues for a more kaleidoscopic understanding that recognizes the heterogeneous and multiple directions of employment and opens up the future to new possibilities. Originality/value – This paper highlights how a common storyline underpins a diverse array of competing visions of the future of employment.

Tugrul U. Daim; Pattravadee Ploykitikoon; Elizabeth Kennedy; Woraruthai Choothian

2008 foresight

doi: 10.1108/14636680810918496

Purpose – This paper aims to forecast the future of data storage technologies, using the case of two major technologies driving the data storage world; hard disk drive (HDD) or conventional longitudinal recording and flash memory. Design/methodology/approach – Four principal tools of forecasting technology are applied to present the coming future of data storage technologies. These tools consist of bibliometric trend analysis, patent trend analysis, technology cycle time (TCT), and growth curve. Numbers of publications each year and cumulative patents are used to analyze the future of these competitive technologies. The median age of the patents is applied to find the technology lifecycle of both technologies. Finally, areal density of HDD is plotted on the growth curve to forecast the saturation point of researching on conventional longitudinal recording. Findings – The results produced from utilizing these tools indicate that these two technologies are continuously under development. It is found that the growth of improving areal density of conventional recording will be nearing zero by year 2013 and the maximum growth rate of development was in year 2006. Research limitations/implications – The forecasting is based on principal technologies of conventional longitudinal recording of HDD. Also, NOR and NAND are considered as two main technologies dominating flash memory. Other emerging data storage technologies such as holographic data storage, phase‐change memory (PCM) are not included in this paper. Likewise, the growth curve of flash memory is not analyzed as part of this paper. Originality/value – This paper forecasts the future of data storage technologies. Integration of scientific indicators and growth curves is demonstrating a powerful tool for forecasting technology futures.

Patrick van der Duin

2008 foresight

doi: 10.1108/14636680810918504

Purpose – This paper aims to describe three major difficulties with dealing with the future. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is an essay with limited use of literature. Findings – Looking to the future is difficult due to cognitive, social, business problems. Research limitations/implications – No empirical research was conducted. Practical implications – Suggests that more practical training in futures research and testing ideas and plans against future trends is required. Originality/value – The paper provides a broad view on difficulties of dealing with the future.

Richard Slaughter

2008 foresight

doi: 10.1108/14636680810918513

Purpose – This article aims to provide a response to the various contributions published in a special issue of foresight on “Is America the land of the future?”. Design/methodology/approach – The article is a commentary on the various works in the special issue. Findings – If these essays have gone even part way toward illuminating the underlying problematic of human and cultural development, it will have been worthwhile. Originality/value – Provides a viewpoint on the special issue “Is America the land of the future?”.