Journal of Risk Research

Lidskog, Rolf

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2488392pmid: N/A

Abstract This paper analyzes how the IPCC understands and addresses with risk and uncertainty. First, it discusses the IPCC’s formal and explicit view on how it understands, manages, and communicates risk and uncertainty in its knowledge assessments. This is done through an analysis of the documents that the IPCC has produced on the subject. The analysis reveals that the IPCC has an ambitious yet complicated system for identifying, assessing, and managing risk and uncertainty. The paper then explores how IPCC experts – researchers appointed by the IPCC to conduct its knowledge assessments – view this system and use it to determine risk and uncertainty. This is done through an interview study with IPCC experts. The analysis indicates that there are tensions in the way knowledge, uncertainty, and risk are viewed. Interviewees made limited reference to the IPCC’s formalized view of risk and uncertainty, but based on the little they did say, it appears to help them manage not only risk and uncertainty, but also internal disagreements and divergent research traditions. Finally, the paper draws conclusions about the challenges that the IPCC will face and need to address regarding risk and uncertainty.

Jaspal, Rusi; Breakwell, Glynis M.

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2485048pmid: N/A

Abstract Emotions, such as fear, are important determinants of people’s responses to crises. Fear can be functional or dysfunctional. There is limited research into the influences determining fear levels during crises. This study examines the extent to which variance in fear levels can be accounted for by perceived risk, perceived appraisal support, identity resilience, and perceived job insecurity. Cross-sectional correlational survey data were collected from 294 adults in the United Kingdom during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in July 2020. Structural equation modelling showed a direct positive effect of perceived risk of COVID-19 on COVID-19 fear and an indirect effect through perceived job insecurity. There was no direct effect of perceived appraisal support upon COVID-19 fear but there were indirect effects: perceived appraisal support was negatively associated with perceived job insecurity which in turn was positively associated with COVID-19 fear; and perceived appraisal support was positively associated with identity resilience which in turn was negatively associated with COVID-19 fear. Women reported higher perceived appraisal support than men. The current study indicates that to model the antecedents of fear in public crises it is useful, in addition to socio-demographics, to build in perceived risk and corollaries of the original hazard (e.g. perceived job insecurity), identity processes, and access to interpersonal support.

Hartley, Sarah; Stelmach, Aleksandra; Kokotovich, Adam; Smith, Robert D. J.

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2485047pmid: N/A

Abstract Biotechnology remains challenging for risk assessors. The risk assessment of genetically modified organisms was the locus of considerable, acrimonious, and politicised debate and subjected to intense scrutiny. Since then, biotechnology has evolved to include new tools, such as genome editing and gene drive, and risk assessors are more sensitive to stakeholder and public views. While engagement is increasingly recognised as important in risk governance, it is underrepresented in the governance literature, remains challenging in risk assessment, and needs empirical cases to develop theory. Imagining engagement in risk assessment will require thinking about when, where, and how to engage people in risk assessment processes in both research and regulatory contexts. However, current risk assessment methods and processes make engagement of non-technical experts challenging and risk assessors may need to innovate and diverge from the norms of risk assessment. Gene drive presents a case of risk assessment that has generated a plethora of prescriptive calls and recommendations for engagement. We use this case study to explore how both technical and non-technical experts and stakeholders involved in gene drive risk assessment are imagining engagement. We conduct qualitative, interpretive research, drawing on 30 interviews with participants across five continents. We show that the people involved with engagement in risk assessment are talking about drastically different things when they talk about engagement. Placing an empirical and theoretical spotlight on engagement in risk assessment, we argue that conversations need to draw on our insights to move beyond simply recognising, justifying, and calling for engagement.

McFadden, Brandon R.; Lusk, Jayson L.; May, Caroline; Schlichtig, Emily

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2485049pmid: N/A

Abstract Constructs designed to explain variation in outcomes are typically measured by aggregating responses to a series of scale questions; however, the choice of response categories may affect the predictive validity of the construct. This is particularly true of question scales where respondents may not have well-defined beliefs or knowledge. For example, respondents have a 50% chance of guessing the correct answer in a true or false response format. Therefore, question scales that measure objective knowledge with true or false response formats may overestimate knowledge. This study used an experimental design that randomized respondents across two groups. One group answered the standard questions in three commonly used scales, while the other group was provided an escape hatch (e.g. an ‘I don’t know’ option). This experimental design allowed us to determine the effects of allowing an escape hatch on the internal consistency of constructs and the validity of associations between the constructs and outcome variables (i.e. opinions about human involvement in global warming and the safety of genetic modification in agriculture). Results show that while allowing an escape hatch has implications for the internal consistency of constructs measured, there was weak evidence that allowing an escape hatch affects the validity of associations between constructs and outcome variables.

Li, Yuxin; Gao, Ruofei; Li, Tianyu; Wen, Nainan

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2485058pmid: N/A

Abstract Social media plays a crucial role in shaping public perceptions of health risks, yet the mechanisms driving risk amplification remain unclear. This study integrates the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) with the Influence of Presumed Media Influence (IPMI) model to examine how social media exposure influences HPV risk perceptions among Chinese women. Using a survey of 890 Chinese women aged 18–34, we explore both direct and indirect pathways through which social media may contribute to perceptions of susceptibility to and severity of HPV infection. Our findings suggest that social media exposure is positively associated with perceived susceptibility but shows no significant relationship with perceived severity. However, perceived media influence on peers was indirectly linked to both dimensions of risk perception, with perceived vaccination norms serving as a mediating factor in this process. These results underscore the important role of media in shaping social influence within risk amplification and provide insights for more effective health communication strategies.

Tannous, Scarlett; Castro Rodriguez, David Javier; Merad, Myriam; Demichela, Micaela

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2488383pmid: N/A

Abstract Industrial risk policy systems englobe diverse risk policy tools (e.g. tools focused on hazard reduction or vulnerability reduction), various actors (public, private, and intermediary actors), and a spectrum of normative components (e.g. command-and-control and self-regulation measures). For high-risk sites, the effectiveness of risk policy systems, indicating to what extent prescriptions can prevent major accidents, avoid crises, and maintain balanced trade-offs in the long term in practice, is important to be assessed ex-ante (i.e. before major accident occurrence). This requires a deeper understanding of how policies are structured around tools directed toward achieving risk policy goals, which is rarely covered by literature taking into account the full set of policy tools. Therefore, this paper raises the research question: how is the industrial risk policy system structured around practical risk policy tools for high-risk sites to contribute to policy effectiveness? Based on a regulatory review, this paper scrutinizes the risk-related public policies and their risk tools for high-risk sites in Normandy (France) and Piedmont (Italy) for the first time. It also examines the integration of vulnerability concept into the French and Italian risk policy systems for high-risk sites taking into account the regional level. Findings, relying on two cases and fostering conceptual thinking, reveals an important assessment criterion appears as a pre-condition to an effective risk policy: ‘adequacy and appropriateness’ of the risk policy tools for high-risk sites covering the coherence of the tool with the main policy objectives and the suitability and sufficiency of these tools to cover both hazard-based and vulnerability-based concerns. Hazard-focused tools appeared to remain dominant with limited implicit considerations of vulnerabilities especially related to human and material damage. Limitations and further work include adding the actors’ perceptions in the risk governance system and exploring other assessment criteria to propose an adapted assessment framework for high-risk policies.

Geysmans, Robbe; Turcanu, Catrinel; Eeckhout, Sigrid Griet

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2491093pmid: N/A

Abstract Citizen participation in the governance of radioactive waste is crucial, not only in the siting and design of repositories, but during their construction and operation and even after their closure. However, this need for citizen involvement poses unique challenges due to the long time scales involved in the various phases of radioactive waste management (RWM). As participation needs to span over several generations, the involvement of young people in decision making opens up participation processes to innovation, ensuring at the same time their durability and representativeness. However, young people are currently underrepresented in various national radioactive waste management initiatives, which brings into question the durability and inclusiveness of participation processes. This paper uses a multi-method approach entailing focus groups and surveys to examine young people’s perceptions of radioactive waste, their potential involvement in its management, and how such involvement can be facilitated. A representative survey (N = 1060) of the Belgian population shows that while risk perceptions and knowledge about radioactive waste are largely similar across age groups, differences exist with regard to the modalities of radioactive waste management (e.g. waste retrievability). We also found that young people (age 18–25) are less inclined to seek active participation in decision-making processes. Focus group discussions further highlight that aligning participatory initiatives with youths’ interests (e.g. climate change) and integrating them into existing structures (e.g. school parliaments) could enhance youngsters’ awareness and involvement in radioactive waste management.

Sabrin, Muhammad; Munawaroh, Solehatun

doi: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2491091pmid: N/A