South Africa after Zumadoi: 10.1080/13567888.2018.1470741pmid: N/A
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa appears committed to purging the corruption of his predecessor Jacob Zuma, and to rebuilding governmental capacity and improving policy execution. But it will take more than a change in the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) to restore South Africa's standing as a model of African democracy and continental leadership.
Strategic rivalries around the Bab el-Mandeb Straitdoi: 10.1080/13567888.2018.1485341pmid: N/A
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a key commercial chokepoint that links two persistently unstable and insecure locales – Yemen and the Horn of Africa – and as a consequence faces standing challenges to its security. Turkey and the Arab states of the Gulf, as well as China and the United States, are expanding their economic and military activity in the region. This has increased the potential for diplomatic discord and strategic instability.
The future of the JCPOAdoi: 10.1080/13567888.2018.1485334pmid: N/A
Following the United States' withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran is unlikely to stay in the agreement merely to maintain the moral high ground, without economic and geopolitical gains. But even if it withdraws from the deal, Tehran may judge actual advancement of its nuclear capability strategically imprudent.
Russia and the Westdoi: 10.1080/13567888.2018.1480107pmid: N/A
Russia and the West are engaged in an ongoing strategic confrontation that shows few signs of relenting. While it is to an extent moderated by the practical need for cooperation on important security issues, Cold War-era logic is likely to prevail in the medium term. The key challenge is to develop clear rules for managing the confrontation.