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Guisinger, Amy Y.; Jackson, Laura E.; Owyang, Michael T.
2024 Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
AbstractWe use a time-varying panel unobserved components model to estimate unemployment gaps disaggregated by age and gender. Recessions before COVID affected men’s labor market outcomes more than women’s; however, the reverse was true for the COVID recession, with effects amplified for younger workers. We introduce time-variation in both the hysteresis dynamics and the Phillips-curve coefficients on labor market slack. The aggregate Phillips curve flattens over time and hysteresis is countercyclical for all groups. We find heterogeneity in both the Phillips curve and hysteresis coefficients, with wages responding more to workers with an outside option (high school- and retirement-age) and larger effects of hysteresis for younger workers.
Xiao, Difa; Wang, Lu; Wu, Jianhong
2024 Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
AbstractThis paper focuses on the factor-augmented panel regression models with missing data and individual-varying factors. A so-called CCEM estimator for the slope coefficient is proposed and its asymptotic properties are investigated under some regularity conditions. Furthermore, a joint test statistic is constructed for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity in the idiosyncratic errors. Under the null hypothesis, the test statistic can be shown to be asymptotically chi-square distributed. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed estimator and test statistic have desired performance in finite samples.
2024 Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
AbstractThis study investigates and uses multi-kernel Hawkes models to describe a high-frequency mid-price process. Each kernel represents a different responsive speed of market participants. Using the conditional Hessian, we examine whether the numerical optimizer effectively finds the global maximum of the log-likelihood function under complicated modeling. Empirical studies that use stock prices in the US equity market show the existence of multi-kernels classified as ultra-high-frequency (UHF), very-high-frequency (VHF), and high-frequency (HF). We estimate the conditional expectations of arrival times and the degree of contribution to the high-frequency activities for each kernel.
2024 Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
AbstractFor this paper, the relationship between seventeen popular cryptocurrencies was analyzed by multivariate Granger causality tests and simple linear regression, using data spanning the period 1 September 2020 to 8 December 2021. The novelty of this work is that it studies the effects of sampling interval and sample size in cryptocurrency markets, which can yield significantly different results. Minute-by-minute, hourly and daily data were collected to examine the Granger causality relationship between cryptocurrencies. It was found that all the currencies demonstrated a significant causality relationship when high frequency (such as minute-by-minute) data was used, in contrast to hourly and daily data. The bigger the sample size, the higher the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. Hence, the null hypothesis for the Granger causality test can be rejected for minute-by-minute time series data because of too large a sample size. Granger causality test results for hourly and daily data indicated that Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, and Neo were leading indicators among the cryptocurrencies included in the research. In addition, according to simple linear regression analysis, the short term marginal effect of Bitcoin plays an important role by creating significant impacts on other cryptocurrencies.
2024 Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
AbstractThis paper introduces a panel threshold model with covariate-dependent and time-varying thresholds (PTCT), which extends the classical panel threshold model of Hansen, B. E. 1999. “Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference.” Journal of Econometrics 93: 345–68 to a framework with multiple covariate-dependent and time-varying thresholds. Based on the within-group transformation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, we develop methods for estimation and inference for threshold parameters in the proposed panel threshold model. We also suggest test statistics for threshold effect, threshold constancy, and for determining the number of thresholds. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the estimation, inference and testing procedures work well in finite samples. Empirically, using the same data as in Hansen, B. E. 1999. “Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference.” Journal of Econometrics 93: 345–68 we revisit the cash flow/investment relationship and find quite different results.
2024 Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
AbstractThis paper considers an extension of Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. It is a hybrid of HP filter and multiple regression. We refer to the filter as “HPX filter”. It is well known that HP filter has a unique global minimizer and the solution can be represented in matrix notation explicitly. Does HPX filter also have a unique global minimizer? Is it accomplished without any additional assumptions? Can the solution be expressed in matrix notation explicitly? In this paper, we answer these questions. In addition, this paper (i) provides an alternative perspective on the filter by representing it as a generalized ridge regression and (ii) gives an extension of it, which is a hybrid of Whittaker–Henderson method of graduation and multiple regression.
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