doi: 10.1023/A:1012191831815pmid: 9358539
Purpose. Single dose pharmacokinetic data from several individuals can be used to predict the fraction of the population that is expected to be within a therapeutic range. Without having some measure of its reliability, however, that prediction is only likely to marginally influence critical drug development decision making. The system (Forecaster) described generates an approximate prediction interval that contains the original prediction and where, for example, the probability is approximately 85% that a similar prediction from a new set of data will also be within the range. The goal is to validate that the system functions as designed.