Empirical Economics

Sun, Qian

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02596-xpmid: N/A

This paper presents alternative unemployment statistics for China, encompassing the extended unemployment rate (U5), which incorporates marginally attached workers, and the nonemployment index (NEI) proposed in recent literature (Hornstein et al. in Econ Q 100(1):1–21). The analysis spans from 1988 to 2021, merging recent data (2012–2018 and 2018–2021) with early estimates (1988–2009). Our findings indicate that both standard and alternative unemployment statistics reveal similar trends in China: a rise in the labor force participation rate and a decline in the unemployment rate since 2012, marking a reversal from the trend before 2009. Additionally, unemployment measures in China align more closely with those of affluent countries from 2007 to 2018 and with less affluent countries from 2018 onwards. Moreover, U5 demonstrates enhanced predictive capabilities for wage dynamics in China’s labor market during the recent 2012–2018 period. Lastly, we delve into the discussion of errors in labor market status data.

Kauhanen, Antti; Riukula, Krista

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02595-ypmid: N/A

Do different tasks shield differently from the scarring effects of job loss? This study examines how the effects of job loss depend on task usage. We use Finnish linked employer–employee data from 2001 to 2016, representative survey data on task usage, and plant closures to identify individuals who involuntarily lose their jobs. We find that heterogeneity in the cost of job loss is linked to task usage. Workers in more social task-intensive origin jobs have smaller employment and earnings losses, whereas workers in routine jobs face larger wage losses. The probability of being employed is 8.3 pp higher (3.9 pp lower) per one standard deviation higher than mean social (routine) task usage 1 year after the job loss event. We also find that workers with longer tenure face larger losses and that task usage contributes more to their losses. The results show that the costs of job loss depend on task usage in the origin job. Public policy measures should be targeted at employees in routine-intensive jobs, since they face the largest losses.

Gravina, Antonio Francesco; Foster-McGregor, Neil

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02587-ypmid: N/A

In this paper, we study the asymmetric effects of different types of capital-embodied technological change, as proxied by tangible and intangible assets, on relative wages (high- to medium-skilled, high- to low-skilled and medium- to low-skilled workers), relying upon the technology-skill complementarity and polarization of the labor force frameworks. We also consider two additional major channels that contribute to shaping wage differentials: globalization (in terms of trade openness and global value chains participation) and labor market institutions. The empirical analysis is carried out using a panel dataset comprising 17 mostly advanced European economies and 5 industries, with annual observations spanning the period 2008–2017. Our findings suggest that software and databases—as a proxy for intangible technologies—exert downward pressure on low-skilled wages, while robotics is associated with a polarization of the wage distribution at the expense of middle-skilled labor. Additionally, less-skilled workers’ relative wages are negatively affected by trade openness and global value chain participation, but positively influenced by sector-specific labor market regulations.

Alam, Masud

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02591-2pmid: N/A

This paper examines the short- and medium-run effects of U.S. federal personal income and corporate income tax cuts on a wide array of economic policy variables in a data-rich environment. Using a panel of U.S. macroeconomic data set, made up of 132 quarterly macroeconomic series for 1959–2018, we estimate factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVARs) models where an extended narrative tax changes dataset combined with unobserved factors. The narrative approach classifies if tax changes are exogenous or endogenous. This paper identifies narrative tax shocks in the vector autoregression model using the sign restrictions with the Uhlig's (J Monet Econ 52(2):381–419, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.05.007) penalty function. Empirical findings show a significant expansionary effect of tax cuts on the macroeconomic variables. Cuts in personal and corporate income taxes cause a rise in output, investment, employment, and consumption; however, the effects of corporate tax cuts have relatively smaller effects on output and consumption but show immediate and higher effects on fixed investment and price levels. We validate the model's specification and the identification of tax shocks through a reliability test based on the Median-Target method. Additionally, sensitivity analysis employing the local projection vector autoregression model, number of iterations of the algorithm, and incorporating diverse factor specifications reaffirms tax cuts' persistent and expansionary effects. Our contribution to the narrative tax literature lies in providing empirical evidence that aligns with the notion that reductions in personal taxes demonstrate a higher efficacy as a fiscal policy tool when compared to reductions in corporate income taxes.

Matsumoto, Shigeru; Hoang, Viet-Ngu; Wilson, Clevo

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02593-0pmid: N/A

Residential electricity consumption and time spent at home by household members increased while household income decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Using survey data of Japanese households purchasing electricity from the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, before and during the pandemic, we examine the various dynamics at play involving income, increased time spent at home by both partners and the role of genders in energy consumption. Results show a positive relationship between changes in electricity consumption and changes in household income, suggesting that households reduced their electricity usage following a decrease in income. Interestingly, the results also show that consumption changes are positively correlated to changes in hours spent at home by working husbands but negatively correlated to changes in the hours spent at home by working wives.

Nonejad, Nima

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02599-8pmid: N/A

The study of Ellwanger and Snudden (J Bank Financ 154:106962, 2023) discovers a new and remarkable finding regarding the ability of the random-walk model using the end-of-month price of crude oil to forecast future monthly average crude oil prices out-of-sample. The magnitude and nature of the relative predictive gains lead the authors to question whether any other model can “beat” the end-of-month price random-walk out-of-sample. I make an attempt to do so by relying on plain end-of-month crude oil price autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. These models are more nuanced and at the same time comprehensively account for one of the most salient features of the price of crude oil, namely, its persistence. Consequently, a forecaster is inclined to believe that they might “beat” the end-of-month random-walk model. However, out-of-sample results demonstrate that a uniform (definitive) conclusion cannot be drawn. On the contrary, conclusions depend heavily on the definition of “beating”, i.e. population-level versus finite-sample relative predictability, the forecast horizon, state of the business cycle and the choice of the crude oil price series itself. The decisions, judgments and dilemmas faced by the forecaster are presented and elaborated.

Nazlioglu, Saban; Karul, Cagin

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02589-wpmid: N/A

This paper proposes a panel Granger causality approach for heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence. We define a panel VAR model with unobserved common factors and apply the PANIC procedure to obtain the de-factored data. We then estimate the lag augmented (LA)-VAR model for each cross section and construct the panel statistics based on the meta-analytic approach that combines the p-values of the individual statistics. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the combination tests show good size and power properties and appear suitable for the panels where cross sections may have different unit root or co-integration properties. We finally re-investigate Granger causality between export and economic growth in OECD countries. The results shed light on the importance of accounting for cross-sectional dependence within a factor model framework in determining direction of Granger causality for country-specific analysis. The results further reveal that export and economic growth do not cause each other in the majority of the European Union countries.

Ogura, Manami

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02590-3pmid: N/A

After Japan’s bubble economy collapsed in 1991, household values diversified, and, gradually, the budget shares on intangible services exceeded that on tangible goods, leading to a shift from demand for goods to services. In this study, we focus on the increased budget allocation to services in Japanese household expenditure and verify whether service-related items can be aggregated into a service group using Lewbel’s (Am Econ Rev 86(3):524–543, 1996) generalized composite commodity theorem (GCCT). We first accurately reclassify into all 51 items consisting of goods and services and verify whether these aggregations are justified. Next, we verify whether these 51 items can be sub-aggregated into goods or service groups. In testing the GCCT, we incorporate panel time-series analysis with cross-sectional dependence, unlike traditional GCCT tests with time-series data. We also conduct a nonparametric revealed preference test for weak separability as a benchmark against the GCCT test results. Our findings demonstrate that the utility function can be rationalized even when the data set is reclassified into 51 items, justifying the aggregation into service groups. This suggests that in the future, specifying the functional form of a service group can be developed into a traditional demand analysis, such as calculating estimates and elasticities.

Destefanis, Sergio; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02597-wpmid: N/A

This paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence supporting this claim for the periods of the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The deterioration of the tradeoff becomes insignificant only after Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ announcement. Results show that the detrimental effect of the Euro is more severe for peripheral countries. We base our results on a novel empirical strategy that, consistent with monetary theory, models the joint determination of the variability of inflation and output conditional on structural supply and demand shocks.

Kilic, Ilhan; Balli, Faruk

doi: 10.1007/s00181-024-02594-zpmid: N/A

In this paper, a new measure for uncertainty that affects the economy is proposed, constructed, and applied to an emerging economy, Türkiye. We have constructed an index of economic country-specific uncertainty (ECSU) that is in line with the methodology used in constructing economic policy uncertainty indexes. As the economic uncertainty is of the Knightian type, the essence of measuring it lies in counting the frequency of joint appearances of words related to economics and uncertainty in Turkish-language newspapers. The uncertainty index constructed using local language sources- Turkish performs significantly better in measuring country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye. However, some indexes use English language sources to measure uncertainty in Türkiye- did not make them country-specific. The ECSU was tested by evaluating the dynamic real effects of the uncertainty. This evaluation was performed by the analysis of impulse responses from uncertainty to some economic variables in a vector autoregressive model describing the economy of Türkiye. We find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty in the Turkish-language press is related to decreases in industrial production, employment, and trade. If the uncertainty measure is based on the articles from the English-language press only, no such relationship can be confirmed. We also find that an increase in uncertainty leads to increase in inflation and stock and oil prices.