Empirical Economics

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Vermeulen, Philip

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0430-3pmid: N/A

This article provides estimates of price–marginal cost ratios or mark-ups for 50 sectors in eight Euro area countries and the US over the period 1981–2004. The estimates are obtained applying the methodology developed by Roger (J Polit Econ 103:316–330, 1995) on the EU KLEMS March 2007 database. Five stylized facts are derived. First, perfect competition can be rejected for almost all sectors in all countries; markup ratios are generally larger than 1. Second, average markups are heterogeneous across countries. Third, markups are heterogeneous across sectors, with services having higher markups on average than manufacturing. Fourth, services sectors generally have higher markups in the euro area than the US, whereas the pattern for manufacturing is the reverse. Fifth, there is no evidence that there is a broad range change in markups from the 1980s to the 1990s.

Jonsson, Thomas; Österholm, Pär

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0428-xpmid: N/A

This article assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey in question is conducted by Prospera once every quarter and consists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisations. The article shows that inflation expectations measured in this survey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Moreover, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outperformed by a simple autoregressive model. Given that the true inflation expectations are captured by the survey, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal.

Aastveit, Knut; Trovik, Tørres

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0429-9pmid: N/A

This article finds that asset prices on Oslo Stock Exchange is the single most important block of data to improve estimates of current quarter GDP in Norway. We use an approximate dynamic factor model that is able to handle new information as it is released, thus the marginal impact on mean square nowcasting error can be studied for a large number of variables. We use a panel of 148 non-synchronous variables. The high informational content in asset prices is explained by reference to the small size of companies on Oslo Stock Exchange and the small and open nature of the Norwegian economy.

Dikos, George; Thomakos, Dimitrios

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0412-5pmid: N/A

This article presents an industry equilibrium framework for testing the real option hypothesis with aggregate data: uncertainty and irreversibility (Dixit and Pindyck, Investment under uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1994) raise the critical threshold at which it is optimal to invest, due to the option value of waiting. We propose and empirically test various structural models of investment for new ship orders in the oil tanker industry, which accommodate estimation of the implied real option value multiple. Because of the competitive characteristics of this industry, the property of myopic equivalence (Leahy, Quart J Econ 108:1105–1133, 1993) in a competitive equilibrium is applied, and the traditional serious problems of aggregation are foregone. The derived structural count specifications explain the data well, providing empirical evidence that investors systematically assign value in waiting.

Cullmann, Astrid

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0413-4pmid: N/A

In January 2009, the German Federal Network Agency introduced incentive regulation for the electricity distribution sector based on results obtained from econometric and nonparametric benchmarking analysis. One main problem for the regulator in assigning the relative efficiency scores is unobserved firm-specific factors such as network and technological differences. Comparing the efficiency of different firms usually assumes that they operate under the same production technology, thus unobserved factors might be inappropriately understood as inefficiency. To avoid this type of misspecification in regulatory practice, estimation is carried out in two stages: in the first stage observations are classified into two categories according to the size of the network operators. Then separate analyses are conducted for each subgroup. This article shows how to disentangle the heterogeneity from inefficiency in one step, using a latent class model for stochastic frontiers. As the classification is not based on a priori sample separation criteria it delivers more robust, statistically significant, and testable results. Against this background, we analyze the level of technical efficiency of different subgroups from a sample of 200 regional and local German electricity distribution companies for a balanced panel data set (2001–2005). Testing the hypothesis if larger distributors operate under a different technology than smaller ones, we assess if a single step latent class model provides new insights to the use of benchmarking approaches within the incentive regulation schemes.

Woo, C.; Zarnikau, J.; Kollman, E.

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0416-1pmid: N/A

This paper demonstrates that a double-log demand with partial adjustment (DLPA) is consistent with the theory of consumer utility maximization. It offers an approach for calculating the compensating variation (CV), the exact welfare effect of a change in a price series when a DLPA is employed. Significant bias may result if the CV is based on a static double-log demand when a DLPA function is appropriate. We revisit a recent study of demand for gasoline in the U.S., finding that the CV based on the static double-log would overstate the welfare effect of a 6-month temporary gasoline tax by 7.5%.

Herrerias, M.; Orts, Vicente

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0418-zpmid: N/A

At the beginning of the 1990s, J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers highlighted in a series of influential articles that there were good reasons and quantitative evidence to support the point of view that machinery and equipment investment might be strongly associated with economic growth. China along with its enormous investment effort over recent decades constitutes an interesting case study with which to analyse the role played by equipment investment in its recent economic performance and its interaction with other sources of growth, i.e. openness, R&D, human capital and infrastructure. Our results provide evidence that equipment investment and exports are two of the most important determinants of both labour productivity and output in the long run even after controlling for other sources of growth in China. Furthermore, when human capital and infrastructure are included, the authors find that they have a positive effect on economic activity in the long run.

Malinen, Tuomas

doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0432-1pmid: N/A

There are several theories describing the effect of income inequality on economic growth. These theories usually predict that there exists some optimal, steady-state growth path between inequality and development. This study uses a new measure of income distribution and panel data cointegration methods to test for the existence of such a steady-state equilibrium relation. It is shown that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables, and that this relationship is negative in developed economies.