An empirical examination of alternative models for hedging emerging market currenciesDavid R. Shaffer; Andrea DeMaskey
2004 Managerial Finance
doi: 10.1108/03074350410769416
This paper compares the hedging performance of the minimum‐extended Gini hedge ratio (MEGHR) and the minimum‐variance hedge ratio (MVHR) using three emerging market currencies. The MEGHR is consistent with the expected utility hypothesis under very general conditions, unlike the MVHR which requires special distributional assumptions. Our sample violates these conditions, and thus provides a context for contrasting the performance of the MEGHR and MVHR. Our results show that the MVHR and MEGHR are indeed different and in some cases the differences are substantial, both statistically and in order of magnitude. This indicates that the MEGHR should provide superior hedging performance given its theoretical robustness. Our hedging performance results support this conclusion for all currencies.
The effect of debt for equity swaps when equity is valued as an optionA. Steven Graham
2004 Managerial Finance
doi: 10.1108/03074350410769425
Several researchers have found that the value of stock declines at the announcement of a debt for equity swap. This decline is attributed to an information effect: the firm’s financial condition is worse than the market expected. Our research develops an alternative explanation. Using the theory that equity can be valued as an option on the firm, it is shown that, depending on the exchange ratio, a debt for equity swap will cause the price of the stock to decline. This theory is tested using a sample of firms that announced debt for common equity swaps. The theoretically predicted stock price reactions are consistent with the actually observed stock price reactions. Furthermore, the contingent claims model has better explanatory power than a simple model of dilution. Tests on the sensitivity to the assumptions of the option pricing model show that only the assumption of the time to expiration of the option significantly affects the results.
Stability of technology stock prices: evidence of rational expectations or irrational sentiment?Kathryn Wilkens; Nordia D. Thomas; M.S. Fofana
2004 Managerial Finance
doi: 10.1108/03074350410769380
We examine the stability of market prices for 35 technology and 35 industrial stocks for the period December 31, 1993 to October 31, 2002. A phase portrait plot of the detrended log prices and de‐meaned returns of the two sectors shows a chaotic pattern in the stock prices indicating the presence of nonlinearity. However, when we compute the Lyapunov exponents, negative values are obtained. This shows that the price fluctuations for the 70 stocks result primarily from diffusion processes rather than from nonlinear dynamics. We evaluate forecast errors from a naïve model, a neural network, and ARMA models and find that the forecast errors are correlated with average changes in closed‐end fund discounts and other sentiment indexes. These results support an investor sentiment explanation for the closed‐end fund puzzle and behavioral theories of investor overreaction.
Seasonality and regime switching in equity markets: evidence from the US and UKSteven J. Cochran
2004 Managerial Finance
doi: 10.1108/03074350410769399
This study investigates whether cyclical turning points in the U.S. and U.K. stock markets are unevenly distributed over the year, that is, whether they are more likely to occur during certain months of the year. In examining this form of periodic seasonality, a Markov switching‐model is applied to U.S. and U.K. stock market chronologies of monthly peak and trough dates for the periods May 1835 through March 2000 and May 1836 through September 2000, respectively. In order to provide some evidence on robustness with respect to the sample data, results are obtained for the entire sample periods as well as for various sub‐. For both markets, the evidence indicates that while the probability of moving from an expansion to a contraction does not depend on the month of the year, the probability of switching from a contraction is greater for some months. Additionally, the durations of contractions, but not expansions, are dependent on the month of the year in which they begin.