Construction Management & Economics

Arditi, David; Mochtar, Krishna

doi: 10.1080/01446199600000003pmid: N/A

A sectoral analysis of the construction industry in Indonesia indicates that it has grown considerably in recent years. Efforts are under way to adapt to this new situation, including exploring ways to increase productivity. A survey of top contractors indicates that certain functions including procurement practices, cost control, scheduling and management integration need much improvement. A survey of top design professionals indicates that they are concerned about design practices, computer utilization in planning and scheduling activities, and goal setting techniques. There seem to be conflicting opinions regarding the construction management project delivery system. Both contractors and design professionals are willing to cooperate in any productivity enhancement programme but neither are willing to fund such activities.

Hua, Goh Bee

doi: 10.1080/01446199600000004pmid: N/A

In recent years, demand for residential construction has been growing rapidly in Singapore. This paper proposes the use of economic indicators to predict demand for residential construction in Singapore. At the same time, two forecasting techniques are applied, namely, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple Regression (MR), the former being a state-of-the-art technique while the latter a conventional one. A comparative study is carried out to determine whether the use of economic indicators with the application of the ANN technique can produce better predictions than with the MR method. A total of 12 economic indicators are identified as significantly related to demand for residential construction. Quarterly data from these 12 indicators are used to develop the ANN model. In order to assess the forecasting performance of this state-of-the-art technique, the same set of data is used to develop a conventional MR model. A comparison is made between the two models, in terms of their forecasting accuracy, by using a relative measure known as the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecasting error of the ANN model is found to be about one fifth of that derived from the MR model. The low MAPE values (less than 10%) obtained for both models also indicate that economic indicators may be used as reliable inputs for the modelling of residential construction demand in Singapore.

Kaka, Ammar P.

doi: 10.1080/01446199600000005pmid: N/A

Previous research has demonstrated significant variation in actual cash flow profiles. However, the results from traditional cash flow forecasting models do not exhibit these variations. This suggests that further variables are needed to enhance to flexibility of the cash flow profiles produced. This paper presents a model designed to use more than fifty variables to calculate the cash flow of individual contracts. In addition, some of the risk associated with construction contracting was incorporated into the cash flow mechanism. This has been achieved by introducing stochastic simulation and extra variables that contribute towards that risk. The testing of the model demonstrated that by merging further variables, the flexibility and reliability of cash flow forecasting are enhanced. The tests also demonstrated that contractors' cash flow is highly sensitive to risk (variations, cost variances, duration overrun and undermeasurement), which further justifies the methodology adopted.

Carrillo, Patricia

doi: 10.1080/01446199600000006pmid: N/A

International joint ventures between contractors in developed and developing countries are recognized as a potential means of enhancing the construction expertise of nationals of developing countries, and offer many advantages and disadvantages to its partners. This paper reports on the technology transfer experiences of eight top UK contractors in joint ventures with contractors from developing countries. Twelve joint ventures, categorized into geographical regions, are used as case studies. The rationale for regional and inter-regional variations are analysed and discussed. The issues addressed are the need for technology transfer and the mechanisms used to transfer technology on these joint ventures. The difficulties experienced in transferring technology are discussed, with suggestions to minimize these difficulties with the aim of improving the technology transfer process on future projects. The conclusions show UK contractors are eager to demonstrate that they transfer technology but it only works to a limited extent because there is little incentive for them to do so.

Gann, David M.; Barlow, James

doi: 10.1080/01446199600000007pmid: N/A

The potential for converting empty offices into housing depends upon demands for converted space, the ability to finance conversions and attitudes of owners of empty buildings, together with flexibility in planning and ability to overcome technical constraints. This article explains the reasons for the large stock of redundant office buildings in the UK and questions whether some of these can be converted to provide much needed affordable housing. Technical constraints on their own are rarely insurmountable but the cost of making necessary changes may often be higher than other options of demolition and new building. Case studies of converted buildings show that it is necessary for project managers to deal with a range of issues from planning, location and finance to the accurate assessment of technical criteria in order for successful outcomes. It has often been difficult to find sites where all the necessary variables coincide in a positive manner and for this reason, the conversion of offices into flats has limited potential. It cannot therefore be seen as a panacea for housing shortages or for the reuse of redundant office buildings. Lessons from the experience of the UK property and construction industries illustrate the need to incorporate greater flexibility to meet unforeseen changes in use in the future.

Li* , Heng

doi: 10.1080/01446199600000008pmid: N/A

Knowledge based expert systems (KBESs) have been increasingly recognized as an effective tool for solving many problems in the construction industry. When developing a KBES for a specific construction problem, it is important to understand the range of available techniques for KBES development and select the most appropriate one for the problem. This paper discusses five widely used KBES development techniques in terms of their strengths and limitations. Potential application areas for each technique are recommended. Guidelines for selecting a development technique are presented.