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Langford, D.; Iyagba, R.; Komba, D. M.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000036pmid: N/A
This paper reviews two models for testing the financial security of construction companies. It discusses the utility of the ratio analysis technique and the Z model in predicting whether companies are heading for insolvency. It then applies these techniques to three construction companies which failed within the last 5 years to test whether the theoretical predictions prescribed in the techniques are applicable to the construction industry. It concludes that whilst the techniques are of value in predicting some difficulties they need to be used in conjunction with financial performance data of other construction firms, in this way comparisons may be made. The development of a refined and construction specific Z model is recommended.
Ranasinghe, Malik; Russell, Alan D.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000037pmid: N/A
This paper investigates three major issues regarding the elicitation of expert knowledge for economic risk analysis: (1) recognition of some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs; (2) development of an approach to elicit expert knowledge as accurate, calibrated and coherent subjective probabilities; and (3)a study to explore human ability to predict future events and the validity of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in the context of the expert judgements. The proposed elicitation approach combines the theoretical requirements for valid subjective probabilities with a practical process. The recognition that some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in engineering risk analysis should be explored when dealing with the human ability to predict future events, and the inherent difficulties in developing experiments and methods to test such beliefs arc some of the benefits of the study. Directions for future work are suggested.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000038pmid: N/A
When an estimator prices a bill of quantities, s/he collects, generates and assembles data (estimating data) for the purpose of establishing the cost of constructing the project. The data generated could be used by the contractor's subsequent management functions, and the use of estimating data in the contractors' post-tender management worthy of attention. Drawing information from ten case studies of the organization of Sri Lankan building contractors, this paper identifies the contractors': management functions; management tasks; and management groups. It also establishes the flow of estimating data within and between the management functions. These flows highlight the substantial burden of re-work in the post-tender use of data. It is argued that the current format and presentation of estimating data in Sri Lanka are the major causes for such re-work. However, it was found that any revolutionary change to the conventional format would not be welcomed by the industry. Any new proposal should be developed within the limitation of acceptability to conventional practice. The recommendation is that the ‘unit rate’ is broken down to its cost components of material, labour and plant. The breakdown of the unit rate would supply all the necessary data for direct use, thus reducing the re-work. Further research should be addressed to investigate the best format and structure of this breakdown.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000039pmid: N/A
This paper reports on the design and development of an expert system for diagnosis and repair of beams and slabs in buildings constructed of reinforced concrete. The aim of the project was to capture all the available knowledge, expertise and experience on building diagnosis and repairs in a user-friendly expert system for civil engineers and allied professionals in the Singapore construction industry. Given different levels of information, the expert system, named EXSOBDR (for EXpert System On Building Diagnosis and Repair), will attempt to identify the most probable causes of RC building deterioration and recommend appropriate strategies for repair. Reports generated by EXSOBDR have been validated on actual case studies and the results have been found to be satisfactory.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000040pmid: N/A
A method for assessing delay claims, regularly used in the USA, is described, together with procedures which have been proposed for dealing with concurrent delays. These treatments are reviewed to identify their shortcomings which in some instances stem from a view of the nature of delays which is not consistent with the way in which delays actually occur. The various types of delay are examined to consider how these treatments might be amended to provide more realistic solutions. It is suggested that concurrent delays need only be separately considered when they affect a single activity, and the concept of parallel critical paths in an as-built network is thought to be invalid. The delays themselves are not always fixed in when they might have their effects and it is felt to be important that this be recognized. Finally a procedure is suggested to select days of exceptional adverse weather artificially, so that critical path method (CPM) analyses may be carried out.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000041pmid: N/A
A method of measuring total-factor productivity (TFP) trends in the building industry is described in this paper. This method is an improved version of the approach described in a paper by Chau and Walker in that it requires less restrictive assumptions and is theoretically less biased while requiring only slightly more data. With small modification, the same method can be used to measure other productivity trends corresponding to other productivity concepts. The data used in measuring TFP of Hong Kong's building industry are also different from those proposed in Chau and Walker. A number of modifications have been made. These modifications have been possible both as a result of work by Chau and the increased availability of statistics in recent years. One of the major difficulties in measuring TFP trends in the building or construction industry has been the lack of data. This is also one of the major reasons for the dearth of empirical studies in this area. Very few attempts have been made to solve the problem of data availability. Lowe recognizes the dificulties in obtaining suitable data for measuring TFP of the British construction industry. His suggestion, however, is to use capital productivity as the second-best alternative to TFP rather than solving the problem. Chau and Walker's solution is to develop a method for estimating TFP from construction cost and price data. The method is then used to measure the TFP of Hong Kong's building industry. Since construction cost and price data are usually more readily available in most countries, Chau and Walker's approach is potentially useful in these countries. There are, however, certain deficiencies in Chau and Walker's approach in that some of the underlying assumptions are relatively restrictive. As more statistics are now available in Hong Kong, this has rendered Chau and Walker's approach a crude tool for making full use of the data. This paper presents a modified approach which requires less restrictive assumptions and can make better use of the newly available data.
Aouad, G. F.; Kirkhami* , J. A.; Brandon, P. S.; Brown, F. E.; Cooper, G. S.; Ford, S.; Oxman, R. E.; Sarshar, M.; Young, B.
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000042pmid: N/A
Modelling of knowledge in the construction industry is a cumbersome task because of the large amount of data involved and the lack of automated information-modelling tools. Adoption of a method and an automated CASE (Computer-Aided Software Engineering) tool could eliminate many problems encountered in the development of information systems in the construction industry. In particular, this approach may help to assess the information requirements and define strategies for such information systems. The Information Engineering Method (IEM) is introduced to illustrate hoar the conceptual models may be improved by using this method. Additionally Texas Instruments' Information Engineering Facility (IEF™) CASE tool is described to illustrate the advantages of automating such a method. The introduction of conceptual modelling in the construction industry using data and process models should lead to a better structuring of information. This should result in the development of well defined and structured, not ad hoc, applications. This conceptual modelling approach using information engineering is currently being used at the University of Salford to study the potential development of an integrated database (design, procurement and management of construction) for the construction industry. The case study describes the information analysis phase of the procurement process included towards the end of this paper.
Tan, Raykun R.; Chang, Dong Shang
doi: 10.1080/01446199300000043pmid: N/A
The focus of the paper is to present the processes in formulating a system of performance indicators to evaluate the implementation of the National Construction Industry Automation Plan in the Republic of China. We approach the formulation as a ‘construction automation transformation system’ which consists of three major components: (I) the inputs, such as funding, manpower and supports, (2) the sub-systems, and (3)the outputs. There are three sub-systems as defined: the processing sub-systems, the receiving sub-system and the socio-economic sub-system. Corresponding to each sub-system, a set of output performance indicators is developed. Program output performance indicators are proposed to measure the effectiveness of the processing sub-system. The industry effectiveness performance indicators and the national welfare indicators are recommended to measure the effectiveness of the receiving sub-systems and the socio-economic sub-system respectively.
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