Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health

Background: To decide whether a person with certain characteristics should be given any kind of intervention to prevent a cardiovascular event, it would be helpful to classify subjects in low, medium and high risk categories. The study evaluated which well known cerebrovascular and cardiovascular correlates, in particular fibrinogen level and ECG characteristics, are able to predict the occurrence of stroke in men of the general population using data from three European cohorts participating in EUROSTROKE. Methods: EUROSTROKE is a collaborative project among ongoing European population based cohort studies and designed as a prospective nested case-control study. For each stroke case two controls were sampled. Strokes were classified according to MONICA criteria or reviewed by a panel of four neurologists. Complete data were available of 698 men (219 stroke events) from cohorts in Cardiff (84 cases/200 controls), Kuopio (74/148) and Rotterdam (61/131). Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to evaluate which information from history, physical examination (for example, blood pressure), blood lipids, and fibrinogen and ECG measurements independently contributed to the prediction of stroke. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC area) was used to estimate the predictive ability of models. Results: Independent predictors from medical history and physical examination were age, stroke history, medically treated hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus and diastolic blood pressure. The ROC area of this model was 0.69. After validating and transforming this model to an easy applicable rule, 40% of all future stroke cases could be predicted. Adding pulse rate, body mass index, blood lipids, fibrinogen level and ECG parameters did not improve the classification of subjects in low, medium and high risk. Results were similar when fibrinogen was dichotomised at the upper tertile or quintile. Conclusion: In the general male population the future occurrence of stroke may be predicted using easy obtainable information from medical history and physical examination. Measurement of pulse rate, body mass index, blood lipids, fibrinogen level and ECG characteristics do not contribute to the risk stratification of stroke and have no value in the screening for stroke in the general male population.

Background: Alcohol consumption has been implicated in the aetiology of stroke. As data on alcohol consumption obtained by questionnaire are susceptible to missclassification, this study evaluated the assocation between γ-glutamyltransferase (γ-GT), as a marker for alcohol consumption, and fatal, non-fatal, haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke in three European cohort studies, participating in EUROSTROKE. Methods: EUROSTROKE is a collaborative project among ongoing European cohort studies on incidence and risk factors of stroke. EUROSTROKE is designed as a nested case-control study. For each stroke case, two controls were sampled. Strokes were classified according to MONICA criteria or reviewed by a panel of four neurologists. At present, data on stroke and γ-GT were available from cohorts in Cardiff (57 cases), Kuopio (66 cases), and Rotterdam (108 cases). Results: An increase in γ-GT of one standard deviation (28.7 IU/ml) was associated with an age and sex adjusted 26% (95% CI 5 to 53) increase in risk of stroke. Adjustment for confounding variables such as drug use, history of myocardial infarction, total cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus did not materially attenuate the association. The risk of haemorrhagic stroke increased linearly with increase in γ-GT. The association for cerebral infarction was not graded: the risk increased beyond the first quartile, and remained increased. The association of γ-GT with stroke was significantly stronger among subjects without diabetes mellitus compared with subjects with diabetes mellitus (no association observed). Conclusion: This EUROSTROKE analysis showed that an increased γ-GT, as a marker of alcohol consumption, is associated with increased risk of stroke, in particular haemorrhagic stroke.

Background: This study investigated the association between electrocardiographically assessed left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and fatal, non-fatal, haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke in four European cohorts participating in EUROSTROKE. Methods: EUROSTROKE is a collaborative project among ongoing European cohort studies to investigate differences in incidence of, and risk factors for, stroke between countries. EUROSTROKE is designed as a nested case-control study. For each stroke case, two controls were sampled. Strokes were classified according to MONICA criteria or reviewed by a panel of four neurologists. LVH was assessed according to the Minnesota code or the automated diagnostic MEANS classification system. For this analysis, data on LVH and stroke were available from cohorts in Cardiff (84 cases/200 controls), Kuopio (60/116), Rotterdam (114/334), and Novosibirsk (62/168). Results are adjusted for age and sex. Results: LVH was associated with a twofold increased risk of stroke (odds ratio 2.1 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.5). The risk was particularly pronounced for fatal stroke (4.0 (95% CI 2.1 to 7.9)), whereas the risk was non-significantly increased for non-fatal stroke (1.5 (95% CI 0.8 to 2.7)). The increased risk was more pronounced in smokers: for total stroke 3.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 8.1) versus 1.6 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.1) in non-smokers. Adjustment for systolic blood pressure and body mass index attenuated the associations. LVH was not preferentially associated with a particular type of stroke, although the association with cerebral infarction was stronger. Conclusion: This analysis of the EUROSTROKE project indicates that LVH assessed by electrocardiogram is a predictor of stroke. The association seems to be stronger for fatal stroke than for non-fatal stroke and is more pronounced in smokers.

This paper describes the design and methodology of the participating cohorts in the EUROSTROKE project. Information is given about the cohort sampling, its size, the follow up procedures and event classification. Information is also given about the measurement of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk factors in each of the cohorts separately. The cohorts described are the Caerphilly study in Cardiff, United Kingdom; the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart disease study in Kuopio, Finland; the Portugal study in Coimbra, Portugal; the EPIC cohort in Athens, Greece; the Ilsa study from Firenze, Italy; the Rotterdam Study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and the Novosibirsk cohort in Novosibirsk, Russia.