Geophysical Research Letters

Liu, Shaozhuo; Moulin, Adrien; Jónsson, Sigurjón

doi: 10.1029/2024gl109019pmid: N/A

The Southern Alps experiences rapid bedrock uplift and intense surface processes like erosion and deglaciation. We quantify how the erosion and deglaciation contribute to the ongoing vertical motions using geophysical models. The erosional unloading uplift is found to be 0.5–1.5 mm/yr throughout the central Southern Alps, whereas the recent deglaciation may locally produce uplift up to 1–3 mm/yr. The estimated unloading uplift accounts for 10%–40% of the GNSS‐observed uplift. After correcting the unloading uplift, the GNSS‐observed uplift can be explained by about 4–6 mm/yr dip‐slip motion on the Alpine fault, which is 10%–50% below previous geodetic estimates. Hence, unloading uplift must be evaluated when interpreting geodetic observations in tectonically active mountain ranges subjected to intense surface processes.

Alvarez, Carlos A.; Gunn, Andrew; Swann, Christy; Trimble, Sarah M.; Ewing, Ryan C.; Lapôtre, Mathieu G. A.

doi: 10.1029/2024gl109958pmid: N/A

Dust dynamics influence planetary atmospheres. However, the settling velocity of dust—and thus its residence time in the atmosphere—is often mispredicted. Challenging, indirect experiments involving few ideal particles revealed that dust settling velocity deviates from Stokes' law under rarefied atmospheres. While useful, such experiments are inadequate to simulate more complex scenarios, including variable particles sizes and shapes. Here, we present direct measurements of settling velocity for spherical particles under Earth‐to‐Mars atmospheric pressures using time‐resolved particle image velocimetry (TR‐PIV), and validate their robustness with existing models. Our results demonstrate that TR‐PIV provides a relatively simple approach to quantifying dust settling velocity from direct observations of over 10,000 particles, enabling systematic investigations of dust settling under realistic scenarios. Such experiments will have significant implications for our understanding of Mars' past, present, and future ‐ from providing a tool to decipher its sedimentary record to enhancing predictive capabilities of atmospheric models.

Alkhimenkov, Yury; Khakimova, Lyudmila; Podladchikov, Yury

doi: 10.1029/2024gl108789pmid: N/A

The interplay between compaction‐driven fluid flow and plastic yielding within porous media is investigated through numerical modeling. We establish a framework for understanding the dynamics of fluid flow in deforming porous materials that corresponds to the equations describing solitary porosity wave propagation. A concise derivation of the coupled fluid flow and poro‐viscoelastoplastic matrix behavior is presented, revealing a connection to Biot's equations of poroelasticity and Gassmann's theory in the elastic limit. Our findings demonstrate that fluid overpressure resulting from channelized fluid flow initiates the formation of new shear zones. Through three‐dimensional simulations, we observe that the newly formed shear zones exhibit a parabolic shape. Furthermore, plasticity exerts a significant influence on both the velocity of fluid flow and the shape of fluid channels. Importantly, our study highlights the potential of spontaneous channeling of porous fluids to trigger seismic events by activating both new and pre‐existing faults.

Zhang, Haipeng; Zheng, Youtong; Li, Zhanqing

doi: 10.1029/2024gl109735pmid: N/A

In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low‐cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large‐scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.

Gettelman, A.; Christensen, M. W.; Diamond, M. S.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Manshausen, P.; Stier, P.; Watson‐Parris, D.; Yang, M.; Yoshioka, M.; Yuan, T.

doi: 10.1029/2024gl109077pmid: N/A

Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

doi: 10.1002/grl.65937pmid: N/A

No abstract is available for this article.

Tong, Yabo; Pei, Junling; Qian, Tao; Sun, Shengsi; Hou, Lifu; Sun, Xinxin; Zhang, Zijian; Yang, Bin

doi: 10.1029/2024gl110286pmid: N/A

Crustal deformation and hydrothermal percolation related to the India‐Asia collision have caused extensive remagnetization of the Tethyan Himalaya Terrane (THT). The present work identified three phases of regional remagnetization during 62.3–50.0 Ma for the east‐central THT. Consequently, a model of three‐stage India‐Asia collision was proposed. The east‐central THT first collided with the southward migrated southern margin of the Lhasa Terrane (LT) at 5.4 ± 0.9°N during 62.3–60.9 Ma. Subsequently, the THT continuously moved northward and pushed the southern margin of the LT back to its original position prior to the initiation of fore‐arc and back‐arc extension on both sides of the Gangdese magmatic arc. Since the final suturing of the THT with Asia at ∼10°N during 59.8–58.0 Ma, the east‐central THT remained stationary until India collided with it at 10.9 ± 5.1°N at ∼50.0 Ma.

Gershman, Daniel J.; DiBraccio, Gina A.

doi: 10.1029/2024gl109660pmid: N/A

The long‐standing “energy crisis” at the giant planets refers to the anomalous heating of planetary thermospheres compared to the available energy from solar irradiance. The coupling between planetary magnetospheres and their upper atmospheres is thought to address these crises, though the sources and pathways of energy transport have not been fully explored at each system. In particular, the total available energy from the upstream solar wind at each planet has not been comprehensively quantified. Here we apply recently developed models of energy conversion by magnetic reconnection and the Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability to each of the Giant Planets, providing estimates of the average external energy inputs for each system between 1985 and 2020. We find that external energy associated with solar‐wind‐magnetospheric coupling significantly exceeds that from solar extreme ultraviolet photons. While internal energy sources are known to dominate at Jupiter and Saturn, external sources may be significant at Uranus and Neptune.

Fang, Yongjie; Yao, Junchen; Wu, Tongwen; Wu, Fanghua; Li, Jianglong

doi: 10.1029/2024gl110166pmid: N/A

Sea ice formation over open water exerts critical control on polar atmosphere‐ocean‐ice interactions, but is only crudely represented in sea ice models. In this study, a collection depth parameterization of new ice for flux polynya models is modified by including the sea ice concentration and ice growth rate as additional factors. We evaluated it in a climate model BCC‐CSM2‐MR and found that it improves simulation of Antarctic sea ice concentration and thickness in most of Indian and Atlantic sectors. Disagreement between the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion during 1981–2014 and the modeled decline still exists but is mitigated when the modified scheme is implemented. Further analysis indicates that these improvements are associated with the overcoming of premature closure of open water, which enhances the response of ocean to surface wind intensification during 1981–2014, and consequently slowdowns the sea surface temperature increase and the resulting Antarctic sea ice reduction.

Booth, Alice; Goodwin, Philip; Cael, B. B.

doi: 10.1029/2024gl109953pmid: N/A

Ice sheet feedbacks are underrepresented in model assessments of climate sensitivity and their magnitudes are still poorly constrained. We combine a recently published record of Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) with existing reconstructions of temperature, atmospheric composition, and sea level to estimate both the magnitude and timescale of the ice sheet‐albedo feedback since the Last Glacial Maximum. This facilitates the first opportunity to quantify this feedback over the most recent deglaciation using a proxy data‐driven approach. We find the ice sheet‐albedo feedback to be amplifying, increasing the total climate feedback parameter by 42% and reaching an equilibrium magnitude of 0.55 Wm−2K−1, with a 66% confidence interval of 0.45–0.63 Wm−2K−1. The timescale to equilibrium is estimated as 3.6 ka (66% confidence: 1.9–5.5 ka). These results provide new evidence for the timescale and magnitude of the amplifying ice sheet‐albedo feedback that will drive anthropogenic warming for millennia to come.