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Conner, Stephen L.; Lee, Jim; Okoye, Christian
doi: 10.1177/003754979506400404pmid: N/A
A simulation model is developed in this paper to estimate the number and timing of the exploratory attempts required to fulfill a company's long term gas commitment. The model simulates that company's production, exploration, and discovery in the given sedimentary basin. It also considers exploration by other companies in the same area, and uses a field distribution to determine the size of the discovery. A number of simulation experiments were performed to illustrate the use of this model and to study the importance of several system parameters. Analysis of the experiment results showed that the amount of gas committed and the production profile and acceleration of production have the most effect upon the level of exploratory and discovery effort required to fulfill the long term gas commitment. The experiments also showed that the factor over which an operator has the least control, the exploration rate in the basin, is relatively insignificant at the levels tested.
doi: 10.1177/003754979506400406pmid: N/A
This article explains an application of computer simulation tostudy the impact of a feebate proposal in which fees would be imposed on dirty vehicles to finance rebates for clean vehicles. Feebates are examined for the case of the south coast air basin in southern California which suffers from dangerously high levels of ozone concentration. The article describes a system dynamics model designed to simulate the impact of a variety of incentiveprograms that could lead togreatersales and use of electric vehicles. Simulation results are presen ted when the model is opera ted in a s tep-by- step manner from a special cockpit designed with theMicroWorlds Creator. The simulations address the question of whether a feebate system could be con trolled by the state official who would be charged with running the program in a financially prudent manner. The simulations demonstrate that feebates can be controlled by a backward looking strategy despite the many uncertainties in the system. The feebate strategy is then tested to learn if it is possible to maintain control over time even if consumer attitudes toward alternative vehicles turn out to be different from the attitudes expressed in recent surveys. The paper concludes with a discussion of the transferability of the results followed by a discussion of the "Mission Earth" initiative.
Dekker, Paul-Michael; Meisen, Peter; Bruton, Amy B.
doi: 10.1177/003754979506400407pmid: N/A
The Global Energy Network International (GENI) model quantifies the economic, environmental, and social benefits of developing remote renewable energy sources and linking them to population centers via long distance electrical transmission lines. The model investigates an optimal sustainable global energy solution by comparing the GENI alternative to those alternatives presented by the World Energy Council (WEC) and others.This paper describes the work in progress accomplished by the GENI organization. The correlation between electricity and quality of life indicators is presented. Abbreviated problem and project definitions are presented.
doi: 10.1177/003754979506400409pmid: N/A
Despite the basic significance of the environment to many needs of Mission Earth and humans, attainable climate models are likely to provide only general guidance to world simulation in the desirable time-frame, not detailed changes and statistical properties. Some aspects of climate simulation, however, illustrate difficulties that may appear in other large-scale, complicated simulations. The fundamental physics of atmospheric waves, their forcing functions and their interactions are described. As a thermodynamically open system, the atmosphere is not very close to macroscopic local detailed balance. There are interactions across many scales of physics, particularly in the budgets of latent heat and radiative flux divergence. The carbon dioxide stored in the ocean appears to be much greater than that for equilibrium with the present partial pressure in the atmosphere. Although release of stored methane appears the most likely large-scale violation of Le Châtelier's principle, it is not now known how far the atmosphere is from non-extremality of the entropy generation rate, or other major transition in thermodynamic regime, nor whether such phenomena are attainable beyond a previously suggested duality in ocean transports. One suggestion is that the climate system historically has switched between two major regimes as a result of internal and external fluctuations.
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