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doi: 10.1177/003754977201900102pmid: N/A
This paper seeks to structure the problem of mea surement and prediction in total society systems. A macrosociological model comprising a limited num ber of variables is developed and applied to five diverse societies of the globe - Brazil, France, India, Nigeria and the USA. The rationale of the model and the methodology are provided by cyberne tic concepts; it permits making qualified predic tions. The model that is developed can be run for ward or backward in time. In the latter use the results of the simulation were compared with available official data for prior years, and the agreement was found to be generally good.The performance of the model is illustrated here with particular reference to US society for a period of over two decades. In the simulation the time path of a society consists of its viability status (Z)GS and essential variables as functions of time.The predictions obtained by running the model forward in time depend for their validity on the fit of the simulation to historical data when time runs backward. For 1972 and the USA, this applies particularly to empirical variables like government change, economic growth, price rise, and unemployment. The generality and validity of the model are reinforced by the con sistent results obtained for the other four societies (which differ markedly from the USA) when the model for them is run backward in time.The model encompasses exogenous pressures, internal system processes, and endogenous events. The latter are interpreted as processes extended in time.
doi: 10.1177/003754977201900103pmid: N/A
A statewide water resources data bank and an associated integrated program for water-resource systems (IPWRS) is being developed for the State of Colorado. IPWRS is to be an open-ended system of digital computer modules unified under the control of an executive pro gram. This executive program will permit an analyst to prescribe which modules should be exercised, the order in which they are to be used, and the form in which output is to be presented. This computing sys tem provides a valuable tool for the management of the limited-water resources of the state. This paper presents a summary of the philosophy behind IPWRS and the results of a phase of the program concerned with the prediction of streamflow runoff in mountainous regions. The prediction involves the use of a self- calibrating snowmelt simulation model, which is one of the digital computer modules in the IPWRS system.
Garfinkel, David; McLeod, John; Pring, Martin; DiToro, Dominic
doi: 10.1177/003754977201900104pmid: N/A
The paper summarizes guidelines for applying computer simulation to life sciences research. It provides brief answers to the following questions:To what extent can problems be rigorously solved by simu lation—especially complicated problems—and how is this to be done?What can a given simulation study be expected to accomplish, and when can it be considered complete?Of what value are the properties of a model in understanding the living system under study?What should be the proper interaction between simulationists and subject-matter experts in a collaboration?What constitutes ethical conduct for a simulationist?To what extent should the same person do both experiments and simu lation?How should simulationists be trained?
doi: 10.1177/003754977201900105pmid: N/A
FLAP, which stands for "FORTRAN-Language Analog Pro gram," is a skeletal simulation program and package of subroutines that can be modified and used for con tinuous system simulation. The FLAP system was created to enable engineers familiar with FORTRAN to write their own simulation programs and to run them in a time-sharing environment; however, FLAP can be run on any small or large computing system having FORTRAN capability. The advantages of FLAP are that it provides a simple algebraic language for continuous system simulation, it can be run on virtually any com puter, and its repertoire of operators can easily be expanded.
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