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Dougherty, Michael R.; Franco-Watkins, Ana M.; Thomas, Rick
doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.115.1.199pmid: 18211192
The theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM; G. Gigerenzer, U. Hoffrage, & H. Kleinbölting, 1991) has had a major influence on the field of judgment and decision making, with the most recent important modifications to PMM theory being the identification of several fast and frugal heuristics (G. Gigerenzer & D. G. Goldstein, 1996). These heuristics were purported to provide psychologically plausible cognitive process models that describe a variety of judgment behavior. In this article, the authors evaluate the psychological plausibility of the assumptions upon which PMM were built and, consequently, the psychological plausibility of several of the fast and frugal heuristics. The authors argue that many of PMM theory's assumptions are questionable, given available data, and that fast and frugal heuristics are, in fact, psychologically implausible.
Thomas, Rick P.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber M.; Harbison, J. Isaiah
doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.115.1.155pmid: 18211189
Diagnostic hypothesis-generation processes are ubiquitous in human reasoning.For example, clinicians generate disease hypotheses to explain symptoms and helpguide treatment, auditors generate hypotheses for identifying sources ofaccounting errors, and laypeople generate hypotheses to explain patterns ofinformation (i.e., data) in the environment. The authors introduce a generalmodel of human judgment aimed at describing how people generate hypotheses frommemory and how these hypotheses serve as the basis of probability judgment andhypothesis testing. In 3 simulation studies, the authors illustrate theproperties of the model, as well as its applicability to explaining severalcommon findings in judgment and decision making, including how errors and biasesin hypothesis generation can cascade into errors and biases in judgment.
Salvucci, Dario D.; Taatgen, Niels A.
doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.115.1.101pmid: 18211187
The authors propose the idea of threaded cognition, an integrated theory of concurrent multitasking—that is, performing 2 or more tasks at once. Threaded cognition posits that streams of thought can be represented as threads of processing coordinated by a serial procedural resource and executed across other available resources (e.g., perceptual and motor resources). The theory specifies a parsimonious mechanism that allows for concurrent execution, resource acquisition, and resolution of resource conflicts, without the need for specialized executive processes. By instantiating this mechanism as a computational model, threaded cognition provides explicit predictions of how multitasking behavior can result in interference, or lack thereof, for a given set of tasks. The authors illustrate the theory in model simulations of several representative domains ranging from simple laboratory tasks such as dual-choice tasks to complex real-world domains such as driving and driver distraction.
Hermens, Frouke; Luksys, Gediminas; Gerstner, Wulfram; Herzog, Michael H.; Ernst, Udo
doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.115.1.83pmid: 18211186
Visual backward masking is a versatile tool for understanding principles and limitations of visual information processing in the human brain. However, the mechanisms underlying masking are still poorly understood. In the current contribution, the authors show that a structurally simple mathematical model can explain many spatial and temporal effects in visual masking, such as spatial layout effects on pattern masking and B-type masking. Specifically, the authors show that lateral excitation and inhibition on different length scales, in combination with the typical time scales, are capable of producing a rich, dynamic behavior that explains this multitude of masking phenomena in a single, biophysically motivated model.
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