Monthly Weather Review

Steppeler, J.; Bitzer, H. W.; Janjic, Z.; Schättler, U.; Prohl, P.; Gjertsen, U.; Torrisi, L.; Parfinievicz, J.; Avgoustoglou, E.; Damrath, U.

doi: 10.1175/MWR3331.1pmid: N/A

The most common option for numerical models of the atmosphere is to use model layers following the surface of the earth, using a terrain-following vertical coordinate. The present paper investigates the forecast of clouds and precipitation using the z -coordinate nonhydrostatic version of the Lokalmodell (LM- z ). This model uses model layers that are parallel to the surface of the sphere and consequently intersect the orography. Physical processes are computed on a special grid, allowing adequate grid spacing even over high mountains. In other respects the model is identical to the nonhydrostatic terrain-following version of the LM, which in a number of European countries is used for operational mesoscale forecasting. The terrain-following version of the LM (LM-tf) is used for comparison with the forecasts of the LM- z . Terrain-following coordinates are accurate when the orography is shallow and smooth, while z -coordinate models need not satisfy this condition. Because the condition of smooth orography is rarely satisfied in reality, z -coordinate models should lead to a better representation of the atmospheric flow near mountains and consequently to a better representation of fog, low stratus, and precipitation. A number of real-data cases, computed with a grid spacing of 7 and 14 km, are investigated. A total of 39 real-data cases have been used to evaluate forecast scores. A rather systematic improvement of precipitation forecasts resulted in a substantial increase of threat scores. Furthermore, RMS verification against radiosondes showed an improvement of the 24-h forecast, both for wind and temperature. To investigate the possibility of flow separation at mountain tops, the flow in the lee of southern Italy was investigated.

Edwards, Roger; Hodanish, Stephen J.

doi: 10.1175/MWR3296.1pmid: N/A

Anticyclonic left-moving supercells are observed each year in the United States, emanating both discretely and from storm splitting processes. Such thunderstorms often produce severe hail and wind gusts and, on rare occasion, tornadoes. The body of documentary literature on this subset of supercells is relatively scant compared with right-moving storms, and this is especially true regarding visual characteristics and conceptual models. Here a characteristic example of the anticyclonic supercell is presented using an intense and well-defined specimen that passed over Aroya, Colorado, on 15 June 2002. Photographic and radar documentation is provided in original and mirrored forms, for aid in conceptualizing the left-moving supercell and associated structures and processes. A summary overview is presented of the environment, development, evolution, and effects of this remotely located but noteworthy event.

Nolin, Anne W.; Hall-McKim, Eileen A.

doi: 10.1175/MWR3244.1pmid: N/A

The interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American monsoon is of great interest because a large proportion of the annual precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico arrives during the summer monsoon. Forty-one years of daily monsoon season precipitation data for Arizona and New Mexico were studied using wavelet analysis. This time-localized spectral analysis method reveals that periodicities of less than 8 days are positively correlated with mean daily precipitation during the 1 July–15 September monsoon period. Roughly 17% of the years indicate no significant periodicity during the monsoon period for either region and are associated with low monsoon precipitation. High- and low-frequency modes explain an equivalent percentage of the variance in monsoon precipitation in both Arizona and New Mexico, and in many years concurrent multiple periodicities occur. Wavelet analysis was effective in identifying the contribution of high-frequency modes that had not been discerned in previous studies. These results suggest that precipitation processes during the monsoon season are modulated by phenomena operating at synoptic (2–8 days) and longer (>8 days) time scales and point to the need for further studies to better understand the associated atmospheric processes.