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Haines, Donald A.; Main, William A.; Frost, John S.; Simard, Albert J.
doi: 10.1093/forestscience/29.4.679pmid: N/A
Although forest managers have used the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) since 1972, neither that system nor the 1978 revision to that system were validated in the Northeastern United States. We compiled a data base consisting of 2,558 wildfires from seven Northeastern locations. Using weighted binomial regression, we examined the capability of the NFDRS to predict four measures of wildfire occurrence: probability of a fire day (i.e., a 24-hour day with at least one reported fire), number of fires per fire day, number of fires per day, and probability of a large-fire day. As a control, we also tested the predictive capability of two meteorological elements and five indices from three other fire-danger rating systems. The ignition component of the NFDRS and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index (FFWI) were the best predictors of the probability of a fire day. The NFDRS spread component, the initial spread index from the Canadian Fire Weather Index, and the FFWI were the best predictors of the number of fires per day. Significantly poorer results were obtained for the number of fires per fire day and the probability of a large-fire day. Forest Sci. 29:679-696.
Haines, Donald A.; Main, William A.; Frost, John S.; Simard, Albert J.
doi: 10.1093/forestscience/29.4.679pmid: N/A
Although forest managers have used the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) since 1972, neither that system nor the 1978 revision to that system were validated in the Northeastern United States. We compiled a data base consisting of 2,558 wildfires from seven Northeastern locations. Using weighted binomial regression, we examined the capability of the NFDRS to predict four measures of wildfire occurrence: probability of a fire day (i.e., a 24-hour day with at least one reported fire), number of fires per fire day, number of fires per day, and probability of a large-fire day. As a control, we also tested the predictive capability of two meteorological elements and five indices from three other fire-danger rating systems. The ignition component of the NFDRS and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index (FFWI) were the best predictors of the probability of a fire day. The NFDRS spread component, the initial spread index from the Canadian Fire Weather Index, and the FFWI were the best predictors of the number of fires per day. Significantly poorer results were obtained for the number of fires per fire day and the probability of a large-fire day. Forest Sci. 29:679-696.
Sprague, J. R.; Talbert, J. T.; Jett, J. B.; Bryant, R. L.
doi: 10.1093/forestscience/29.4.696pmid: N/A
Three types of Pilodyn Wood Testers were evaluated for their efficiency as an indirect selection technique to improve mature wood specific gravity in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). In this investigation, wood properties influencing Pilodyn needle penetration were heritable (h² = 0.06 to 0.46) and had a strong genetic correlation to wood specific gravity for two of the three instruments tested. Indirect selection using the 18J Pilodyn with a 2.5 mm diameter needle was estimated to be 83.6 percent as efficient in improving wood specific gravity as direct selection for the trait itself. Use of the Pilodyn in selecting for mature wood specific gravity would result in savings in time and money for extracting and processing increment cores to determine wood specific gravity. Forest Sci. 29:696-701.
Sprague, J. R.; Talbert, J. T.; Jett, J. B.; Bryant, R. L.
doi: 10.1093/forestscience/29.4.696pmid: N/A
Three types of Pilodyn Wood Testers were evaluated for their efficiency as an indirect selection technique to improve mature wood specific gravity in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). In this investigation, wood properties influencing Pilodyn needle penetration were heritable (h² = 0.06 to 0.46) and had a strong genetic correlation to wood specific gravity for two of the three instruments tested. Indirect selection using the 18J Pilodyn with a 2.5 mm diameter needle was estimated to be 83.6 percent as efficient in improving wood specific gravity as direct selection for the trait itself. Use of the Pilodyn in selecting for mature wood specific gravity would result in savings in time and money for extracting and processing increment cores to determine wood specific gravity. Forest Sci. 29:696-701.
Stier, Jeffrey C.; Chang, Sun Joseph
doi: 10.1093/forestscience/29.4.702pmid: N/A
The impact of an unmodified ad valorem property tax on land and product values is examined for forestry and annual yield enterprises under the assumptions of (i) full tax capitalization, (ii) full tax shifting, and (iii) shared tax incidence. The models have been extended to include annual management costs and to differentiate between one-time initial investments in capital improvements versus recurrent reforestation expenditures. The two types of investments are shown to have quite different tax consequences. The property tax is biased against capital intensive forms of land use, regardless of the length of the income cycle. The myriad investment situations that can occur within as well as among land uses make it difficult to formulate practical tax policies that would be equitable in all circumstances. This problem is further compounded when the incidence of the tax is shared between land and commodity markets. It is demonstrated that if some of the tax can be shifted forward in the form of higher product prices, certain types of intensive agricultural crop production may be quite insensitive to the level of the property tax. Public tax policies that are formulated on the assumption that all property taxes are fully capitalized ignore the differential effects that can occur within as well as among types of land use and could have quite unintended consequences. Forest Sci. 29:702-712.
Stier, Jeffrey C.; Chang, Sun Joseph
doi: 10.1093/forestscience/29.4.702pmid: N/A
The impact of an unmodified ad valorem property tax on land and product values is examined for forestry and annual yield enterprises under the assumptions of (i) full tax capitalization, (ii) full tax shifting, and (iii) shared tax incidence. The models have been extended to include annual management costs and to differentiate between one-time initial investments in capital improvements versus recurrent reforestation expenditures. The two types of investments are shown to have quite different tax consequences. The property tax is biased against capital intensive forms of land use, regardless of the length of the income cycle. The myriad investment situations that can occur within as well as among land uses make it difficult to formulate practical tax policies that would be equitable in all circumstances. This problem is further compounded when the incidence of the tax is shared between land and commodity markets. It is demonstrated that if some of the tax can be shifted forward in the form of higher product prices, certain types of intensive agricultural crop production may be quite insensitive to the level of the property tax. Public tax policies that are formulated on the assumption that all property taxes are fully capitalized ignore the differential effects that can occur within as well as among types of land use and could have quite unintended consequences. Forest Sci. 29:702-712.
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